4 Zephyr Ln · Saratoga Springs, NY 12866

$87,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 870 sqft · SingleFamily · 157 Days on market

Built 2014 Poor condition $101/sqft · 80% below area ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming 2014 manufactured home features two spacious bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms, designed for comfort and privacy. The kitchen features modern white cabinets and brand-new stainless-steel appliances. By placing the kitchen and living room at the center of the house, greater privacy is afforded to the bedrooms and bathrooms. A covered patio provides a perfect setting for entertaining guests and BBQ's Immerse yourself in the vibrant atmosphere of Saratoga Springs, one of the most desirable cities in the United States. Nestled less than a block from Broadway, this home is perfectly situated for those who appreciate convenience and the comforts of city living. The area features renowned attractions such as the Saratoga Performing Arts Center, the world-famous Saratoga Racetrack and Racino, Roosevelt Baths and Spa, and the Yado Gardens. Savor a delightful array of nearby restaurants with indoor and outdoor dining options, making this the ideal location for a second home at an affordable price. Investment Opportunity This home has previously been used as an Airbnb, earning over $20,000 in less than six months. You can see more pictures on Airbnb website Contact Information For more information or to schedule a viewing, please contact: Sherrie 518-538-6238 or Tami 518-383-3119 [email protected]

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Patio
• Built 2014

Tags

• MODERN WHITE CABINETS
• COVERED PORCH
• PATIO
• INDOOR AND OUTDOOR DINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $88k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $88k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.6% vs local median 2.0% in Saratoga Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#83 in NY, #1,284 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F.
• Saratoga Springs City SD (suburban): math 67% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #138 of 590 in NY (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lake Avenue Elementary School (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A+, #138 of 2,108 statewide, top 8%, 393 students, 21% FRL); Maple Avenue Middle School (math 46% / reading 69%, grade B, #187 of 729 statewide, top 26%, 1,392 students, 27% FRL); Saratoga Springs High School (math 98% / reading 92%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 1,947 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.2%/yr); 474 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $608 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $77,352 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.35%
• DSCR: 3.60
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $446,396
• List price: $87,900
• Delta: -80.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
138 Elm St	0.53mi	2/1.5	887 (+2%)	8mo	$410,000	$462	66
79 Madison St	0.42mi	2/1.0	912 (+5%)	7mo	$450,000	$493	64
34 East Fenlon St	0.29mi	2/1.5	912 (+5%)	19mo	$410,000	$450	62
9 Spa Dr	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	950 (+9%)	13mo	$385,000	$405	53
68 Monroe St	0.51mi	3/1.5 (+1)	960 (+10%)	5mo	$399,900	$417	50
6 Spa Dr	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	972 (+12%)	12mo	$321,000	$330	50
57 Vanderbilt Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	768 (-12%)	13mo	$360,000	$469	48
15 Prospect Dr	0.21mi	3/1.5 (+1)	988 (+14%)	20mo	$460,000	$466	46
17 Oak St	0.66mi	2/1.0	987 (+13%)	8mo	$385,000	$390	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 62.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.01×
• Total profit: $74,089
• Equity at exit: $13,106

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.7%
• Equity multiple: 9.85×
• Total profit: $217,746
• Equity at exit: $7,600

Cash invested: $24,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12866

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 474
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,284 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$461
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$110 /mo · $1,318/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $1,197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $769

Max offer price $87,900

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,258	-5% $1,227	+0% $1,197	+5% $1,166	+10% $1,136
Rent	-10% $1,016	-5% $1,107	+0% $1,197	+5% $1,287	+10% $1,377
Rate	-1.0pp $1,241	-0.5pp $1,219	base $1,197	+0.5pp $1,174	+1.0pp $1,151

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,975
• Closing costs: $2,637
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
168 Elm St Unit 1 Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0	864	$1,600	$1.85	45d	1	0.57mi
5 Spring St Saratoga Springs, NY	1.0	1.5	871	$3,000	$3.44	25d	1	0.69mi
246 West Ave Saratoga Springs, NY	1.0	1.0	968	$2,150	$2.22	45d	1	0.71mi
87 Railroad Pl Saratoga Springs, NY	1.0	1.5	1093	$12,000	$10.98	45d	1	0.72mi
19 Washington St Saratoga Springs, NY	1.0	1.0	892	$5,500	$6.17	25d	1	0.72mi
55 Railroad Pl Saratoga Springs, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1097	$2,940	$2.68	20d	2	0.84mi
425 Broadway Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,800	$2.55	45d	1	0.85mi
433 Broadway Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,750	$2.75	45d	1	0.86mi
8 5th Ave Saratoga Springs, NY	1.0	1.0	600	$1,845	$3.08	45d	1	0.89mi
30 Lake Ave Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	976	$3,190	$3.27	15d	7	0.91mi
156 Circular St Unit 9 Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0	950	$2,350	$2.47	45d	1	1.04mi
68 Marvin St Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	25d	1	1.05mi
110 Van Dam St Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0	1120	$2,600	$2.32	45d	1	1.06mi
77 Van Dam St Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0	985	$14,000	$14.21	45d	1	1.09mi
586 N Broadway Saratoga Springs, NY	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,995	$2.00	45d	1	1.20mi
590 N Broadway Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0	1012	$2,150	$2.12	45d	1	1.22mi
54 State St Unit 1 Saratoga Springs, NY	1.0	1.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	15d	1	1.23mi
598 N Broadway Saratoga Springs, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$1,800	$2.25	25d	1	1.23mi
9 James St Saratoga Springs, NY	3.0	1.5	700	$1,600	$2.29	25d	1	1.29mi
630 N Broadway Saratoga Springs, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$2,150	$3.07	25d	1	1.32mi
3 Station Ln Saratoga Springs, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,120	$2.17	45d	2	1.34mi
223 Lake Ave Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.5	850	$2,150	$2.53	45d	1	1.38mi
30 Excelsior Ave Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,625	$2.39	45d	1	1.43mi
30 Excelsior Ave Unit B-5 Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,625	$2.62	22d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $87,900 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $87,900 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $87,900 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $87,900 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $87,900 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $87,900 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $87,900 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $87,900 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $87,900 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $87,900 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $87,900 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $87,900 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $87,900 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $87,900 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $87,900 Active 137 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $87,900 Active 136 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $87,900 Active 135 DOM
18. 2026-04-27
    historical $2,300
19. 2026-01-15
    listed $87,900 Active 1327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1327 chars)

    This charming 2014 manufactured home features two spacious bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms, designed for comfort and privacy. The kitchen features modern white cabinets and brand-new stainless-steel appliances. By placing the kitchen and living room at the center of the house, greater privacy is afforded to the bedrooms and bathrooms. A covered patio provides a perfect setting for entertaining guests and BBQ's Immerse yourself in the vibrant atmosphere of Saratoga Springs, one of the most desirable cities in the United States. Nestled less than a block from Broadway, this home is perfectly situated for those who appreciate convenience and the comforts of city living. The area features renowned attractions such as the Saratoga Performing Arts Center, the world-famous Saratoga Racetrack and Racino, Roosevelt Baths and Spa, and the Yado Gardens. Savor a delightful array of nearby restaurants with indoor and outdoor dining options, making this the ideal location for a second home at an affordable price. Investment Opportunity This home has previously been used as an Airbnb, earning over $20,000 in less than six months. You can see more pictures on Airbnb website Contact Information For more information or to schedule a viewing, please contact: Sherrie 518-538-6238 or Tami 518-383-3119 [email protected]

20. 2025-07-31
    listed $2,300
21. 2024-02-24
    historical $2,250
22. 2023-09-10
    price $2,250
23. 2023-08-30
    listed $2,350

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,407
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,924
• − Property taxes: −$1,318
• − Insurance: −$440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,193
• − Management: −$2,193
• − Depreciation: −$2,557
• Taxable income: $13,783
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,308
• After-tax cash flow: $11,054/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and renovations to bring it up to a livable condition. Significant investment is needed to address the poor condition of the kitchen, bathrooms, exterior, flooring, interior walls, windows, foundation, HVAC, and landscaping. Upgrading these areas will significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen cabinets — No photos of the kitchen.
• Major Bathroom fixtures — No photos of the bathrooms.
• Major Roof — No photos of the roof.
• Major Exterior siding — No photos of the exterior.
• Major Flooring — No photos of the flooring.
• Major Interior walls/paint — No photos of the interior walls/paint.
• Major Windows — No photos of the windows.
• Major Foundation/structure — No photos of the foundation/structure.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No photos of the HVAC/mechanicals.
• Major Landscaping — No photos of the landscaping/curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Kitchen renovation — Modernizing the kitchen will attract more buyers.
• Resale Bathroom renovation — Upgrading the bathrooms will enhance the home's appeal.
• Both Exterior painting and siding repair — A fresh coat of paint and repairs to the siding will improve curb appeal and increase value.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained garden and landscaping will enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more renters.
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system will improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting both buyers and renters.
• Resale Interior wall and paint repair — Repainting and repairing interior walls will make the home more attractive to buyers.
• Both Window replacement — New windows will improve energy efficiency and increase the home's curb appeal, attracting both buyers and renters.
• Both Foundation repair — Repairing the foundation will ensure the home's structural integrity and attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained garden and landscaping will enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more renters.
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system will improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · No photos of the kitchen.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · No photos of the bathrooms.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · No photos of the roof.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · No photos of the exterior.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · No photos of the flooring.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls/paint · No photos of the interior walls/paint.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · No photos of the windows.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Foundation/structure · No photos of the foundation/structure.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No photos of the HVAC/mechanicals.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping · No photos of the landscaping/curb appeal.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 10 items		$150,000–500,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Kitchen renovation — Modernizing the kitchen will attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom renovation — Upgrading the bathrooms will enhance the home's appeal. ↑
• Both Exterior painting and siding repair — A fresh coat of paint and repairs to the siding will improve curb appeal and increase value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained garden and landscaping will enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more renters. ↑
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system will improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting both buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale Interior wall and paint repair — Repainting and repairing interior walls will make the home more attractive to buyers. ↑
• Both Window replacement — New windows will improve energy efficiency and increase the home's curb appeal, attracting both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Foundation repair — Repairing the foundation will ensure the home's structural integrity and attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained garden and landscaping will enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more renters. ↑
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system will improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saratoga Springs City SD
• NCES district ID: 3625770
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $69,864
• Composite: 60.83/100
• National rank: #818
• State rank: #138 of 590 in NY

Livability — Saratoga Springs

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #1284

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A- Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saratoga Springs, NY
• County: Saratoga County · 166,192 people
• City population: 40,057
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 40,057
• Household income: $101,901
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1424.0

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -178.78%
• Current HPI: 382.7429
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.15%
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-2.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Rental Removed $2,300 GLOBALMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $87,900 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-07-31 Listed for Rent $2,300 GLOBALMLS
• 2024-02-24 Rental Removed $2,250 GLOBALMLS
• 2023-09-10 Price Changed $2,250 GLOBALMLS
• 2023-08-30 Listed for Rent $2,350 GLOBALMLS