20190 Holly Hills Dr · Sunrise Shores, TX 75770

$79,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 112 Days on market

Built 1985 1.10 ac lot $45/sqft · 49% below area Est $156k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just one block from Lake Palestine and the boat launch, this charming home sits on just over an acre of unrestricted land, offering space, flexibility, and the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Designed with entertaining in mind, the open-concept layout features a spacious living room with a cozy fireplace that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining area. Thoughtful decorator touches throughout give the home warmth and character. The floor plan includes three bedrooms, two bathrooms, a dedicated office space, a two-car garage, and a versatile bonus room that could serve as a massive primary closet, hobby room, or flex space to fit your needs. A newer central A/C system was installed in July 2020, adding comfort and efficiency. Outdoor living truly shines here. Enjoy your morning coffee on the covered front porch while taking in peaceful views and beautiful evening sunsets. The covered back patio is perfect for gatherings, and the screened-in gazebo creates a relaxing space to unwind. The property is dotted with mature trees, including crepe myrtle, dogwood, black walnut, and magnolia. The fenced backyard includes a dedicated dog run for your pets, and the barn offers endless possibilities — whether for storage, animals, or future projects. With unrestricted land, you have the freedom to make it your own. A great opportunity to enjoy lake living with room to spread out — all just steps from the water.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Cozy fireplace
• Versatile bonus room

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• COZY FIREPLACE
• DEDICATED OFFICE SPACE
• VERSATILE BONUS ROOM
• NEWER CENTRAL A/C SYSTEM
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $413 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 4.1% in Sunrise Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brownsboro ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #290 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Brownsboro El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 429 students, 66% FRL); Brownsboro J H (math 48% / reading 49%, grade C-, #392 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 405 students, 60% FRL); Brownsboro H S (math 31% / reading 63%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 757 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,709 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.17%
• DSCR: 1.99
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $156,250
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -48.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4383 Sweet Gum Ln	0.48mi	3/3.0	1,800 (+1%)	3mo	$200,000	$111	70
20625 Pine Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,624 (-9%)	7mo	$115,000	$71	59
20414 Hillside Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-12%)	10mo	$89,000	$57	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $35,971
• Equity at exit: $35,926

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.08×
• Total profit: $91,211
• Equity at exit: $55,367

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75770

• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,235 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,323/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $413

Break-even live

Break-even rent $712

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $458	-5% $436	+0% $413	+5% $391	+10% $368
Rent	-10% $316	-5% $364	+0% $413	+5% $462	+10% $511
Rate	-1.0pp $453	-0.5pp $434	base $413	+0.5pp $393	+1.0pp $371

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,900 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,900 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,900 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,900 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $79,900 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    price $79,900 1449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1449 chars)

    Just one block from Lake Palestine and the boat launch, this charming home sits on just over an acre of unrestricted land, offering space, flexibility, and the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Designed with entertaining in mind, the open-concept layout features a spacious living room with a cozy fireplace that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining area. Thoughtful decorator touches throughout give the home warmth and character. The floor plan includes three bedrooms, two bathrooms, a dedicated office space, a two-car garage, and a versatile bonus room that could serve as a massive primary closet, hobby room, or flex space to fit your needs. A newer central A/C system was installed in July 2020, adding comfort and efficiency. Outdoor living truly shines here. Enjoy your morning coffee on the covered front porch while taking in peaceful views and beautiful evening sunsets. The covered back patio is perfect for gatherings, and the screened-in gazebo creates a relaxing space to unwind. The property is dotted with mature trees, including crepe myrtle, dogwood, black walnut, and magnolia. The fenced backyard includes a dedicated dog run for your pets, and the barn offers endless possibilities — whether for storage, animals, or future projects. With unrestricted land, you have the freedom to make it your own. A great opportunity to enjoy lake living with room to spread out — all just steps from the water.

16. 2026-04-14
    price $84,900 1449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1449 chars)

    Just one block from Lake Palestine and the boat launch, this charming home sits on just over an acre of unrestricted land, offering space, flexibility, and the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Designed with entertaining in mind, the open-concept layout features a spacious living room with a cozy fireplace that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining area. Thoughtful decorator touches throughout give the home warmth and character. The floor plan includes three bedrooms, two bathrooms, a dedicated office space, a two-car garage, and a versatile bonus room that could serve as a massive primary closet, hobby room, or flex space to fit your needs. A newer central A/C system was installed in July 2020, adding comfort and efficiency. Outdoor living truly shines here. Enjoy your morning coffee on the covered front porch while taking in peaceful views and beautiful evening sunsets. The covered back patio is perfect for gatherings, and the screened-in gazebo creates a relaxing space to unwind. The property is dotted with mature trees, including crepe myrtle, dogwood, black walnut, and magnolia. The fenced backyard includes a dedicated dog run for your pets, and the barn offers endless possibilities — whether for storage, animals, or future projects. With unrestricted land, you have the freedom to make it your own. A great opportunity to enjoy lake living with room to spread out — all just steps from the water.

17. 2026-03-28
    price $89,900 1449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1449 chars)

    Just one block from Lake Palestine and the boat launch, this charming home sits on just over an acre of unrestricted land, offering space, flexibility, and the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Designed with entertaining in mind, the open-concept layout features a spacious living room with a cozy fireplace that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining area. Thoughtful decorator touches throughout give the home warmth and character. The floor plan includes three bedrooms, two bathrooms, a dedicated office space, a two-car garage, and a versatile bonus room that could serve as a massive primary closet, hobby room, or flex space to fit your needs. A newer central A/C system was installed in July 2020, adding comfort and efficiency. Outdoor living truly shines here. Enjoy your morning coffee on the covered front porch while taking in peaceful views and beautiful evening sunsets. The covered back patio is perfect for gatherings, and the screened-in gazebo creates a relaxing space to unwind. The property is dotted with mature trees, including crepe myrtle, dogwood, black walnut, and magnolia. The fenced backyard includes a dedicated dog run for your pets, and the barn offers endless possibilities — whether for storage, animals, or future projects. With unrestricted land, you have the freedom to make it your own. A great opportunity to enjoy lake living with room to spread out — all just steps from the water.

18. 2026-03-12
    price $99,999 1449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1449 chars)

    Just one block from Lake Palestine and the boat launch, this charming home sits on just over an acre of unrestricted land, offering space, flexibility, and the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Designed with entertaining in mind, the open-concept layout features a spacious living room with a cozy fireplace that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining area. Thoughtful decorator touches throughout give the home warmth and character. The floor plan includes three bedrooms, two bathrooms, a dedicated office space, a two-car garage, and a versatile bonus room that could serve as a massive primary closet, hobby room, or flex space to fit your needs. A newer central A/C system was installed in July 2020, adding comfort and efficiency. Outdoor living truly shines here. Enjoy your morning coffee on the covered front porch while taking in peaceful views and beautiful evening sunsets. The covered back patio is perfect for gatherings, and the screened-in gazebo creates a relaxing space to unwind. The property is dotted with mature trees, including crepe myrtle, dogwood, black walnut, and magnolia. The fenced backyard includes a dedicated dog run for your pets, and the barn offers endless possibilities — whether for storage, animals, or future projects. With unrestricted land, you have the freedom to make it your own. A great opportunity to enjoy lake living with room to spread out — all just steps from the water.

19. 2026-02-28
    price $119,900 1449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1449 chars)

    Just one block from Lake Palestine and the boat launch, this charming home sits on just over an acre of unrestricted land, offering space, flexibility, and the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Designed with entertaining in mind, the open-concept layout features a spacious living room with a cozy fireplace that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining area. Thoughtful decorator touches throughout give the home warmth and character. The floor plan includes three bedrooms, two bathrooms, a dedicated office space, a two-car garage, and a versatile bonus room that could serve as a massive primary closet, hobby room, or flex space to fit your needs. A newer central A/C system was installed in July 2020, adding comfort and efficiency. Outdoor living truly shines here. Enjoy your morning coffee on the covered front porch while taking in peaceful views and beautiful evening sunsets. The covered back patio is perfect for gatherings, and the screened-in gazebo creates a relaxing space to unwind. The property is dotted with mature trees, including crepe myrtle, dogwood, black walnut, and magnolia. The fenced backyard includes a dedicated dog run for your pets, and the barn offers endless possibilities — whether for storage, animals, or future projects. With unrestricted land, you have the freedom to make it your own. A great opportunity to enjoy lake living with room to spread out — all just steps from the water.

20. 2026-02-26
    listed $124,900 Active 1449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1449 chars)

    Just one block from Lake Palestine and the boat launch, this charming home sits on just over an acre of unrestricted land, offering space, flexibility, and the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Designed with entertaining in mind, the open-concept layout features a spacious living room with a cozy fireplace that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining area. Thoughtful decorator touches throughout give the home warmth and character. The floor plan includes three bedrooms, two bathrooms, a dedicated office space, a two-car garage, and a versatile bonus room that could serve as a massive primary closet, hobby room, or flex space to fit your needs. A newer central A/C system was installed in July 2020, adding comfort and efficiency. Outdoor living truly shines here. Enjoy your morning coffee on the covered front porch while taking in peaceful views and beautiful evening sunsets. The covered back patio is perfect for gatherings, and the screened-in gazebo creates a relaxing space to unwind. The property is dotted with mature trees, including crepe myrtle, dogwood, black walnut, and magnolia. The fenced backyard includes a dedicated dog run for your pets, and the barn offers endless possibilities — whether for storage, animals, or future projects. With unrestricted land, you have the freedom to make it your own. A great opportunity to enjoy lake living with room to spread out — all just steps from the water.

21. 2020-09-30
    soldstatus
22. 2020-09-24
    soldstatus 1054-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1054 chars)

    This adorable home is only a block away from Lake Palestine and the boat launch, and sits on just over an acre of unrestricted land. A great layout and perfect for entertaining, this home has a decorators touch. The living room has a fireplace and open floor plan with the kitchen/dining area and is completely move in ready with neutral finishes. Some furnishings and decor are negotiable as well. There are 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, office area, 2 car garage and a bonus room. New Central A/C just added in July 2020. The yard has a covered front porch to enjoy your morning coffee and beautiful evening sunsets. The back covered patio is ready for your pool party. Also, there is a screened in gazebo next to the pool, perfect for hanging out. There are several mature trees, crepe myrtle, dogwood, black walnut and a Magnolia tree. The backyard is fenced, and has a dog run for your fur babies, there is a place for all your animals and the barn has many potential uses. This home is decorated and the seller is leaving partially furnished! Move in ready.

23. 2020-08-22
    listed $102,500 1054-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1054 chars)

    This adorable home is only a block away from Lake Palestine and the boat launch, and sits on just over an acre of unrestricted land. A great layout and perfect for entertaining, this home has a decorators touch. The living room has a fireplace and open floor plan with the kitchen/dining area and is completely move in ready with neutral finishes. Some furnishings and decor are negotiable as well. There are 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, office area, 2 car garage and a bonus room. New Central A/C just added in July 2020. The yard has a covered front porch to enjoy your morning coffee and beautiful evening sunsets. The back covered patio is ready for your pool party. Also, there is a screened in gazebo next to the pool, perfect for hanging out. There are several mature trees, crepe myrtle, dogwood, black walnut and a Magnolia tree. The backyard is fenced, and has a dog run for your fur babies, there is a place for all your animals and the barn has many potential uses. This home is decorated and the seller is leaving partially furnished! Move in ready.

24. 2017-07-25
    historical
25. 2017-05-22
    listed $90,000 Active
26. 2017-03-28
    soldstatus
27. 2017-03-28
    soldstatus
28. 2016-10-20
    listed $54,400
29. 2014-11-20
    soldstatus
30. 2013-07-16
    soldstatus
31. 2013-06-05
    listed $48,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,323 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,462 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$140/yr (+$12/mo · 10.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,822
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,323
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,186
• − Management: −$1,186
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $3,928
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$943
• After-tax cash flow: $4,016/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811640
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,624
• Composite: 37.38/100
• National rank: #4429
• State rank: #290 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sunrise Shores

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,736

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 16% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+63.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $79,900 LAAR
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $84,900 LAAR
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $89,900 LAAR
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $99,999 LAAR
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $119,900 LAAR
• 2026-02-26 Listed $124,900 LAAR
• 2020-09-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-09-24 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2020-08-22 Listed $102,500 GTAR
• 2017-07-25 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2017-05-22 Listed $90,000 NTREIS
• 2017-03-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-03-28 Sold (MLS) — HCBOR
• 2016-10-20 Listed $54,400 HCBOR
• 2014-11-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-07-16 Sold (MLS) — HCBOR
• 2013-06-05 Listed $48,900 HCBOR

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,323 · -3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.