131 S Emerson Ave #224 · Montauk, NY 11954

$499,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 535 sqft · Condo · 71 Days on market

Built 1984 Good condition $933/sqft · 23% below area Est $647k · 23% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Appreciation +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful freshly painted 1 bedroom, brand new bathroom with rainfall shower, living room has 2 brand new sofa's with full size pull out. Galley kitchen with new Stainless steel refrigerator, new microwave, new washer/dryer. Ample closet space and located on the second floor.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1984
• Listed 70 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $499k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($75k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $499k).
• Recommended offer: $469k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 7.9% in Montauk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#474 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Montauk Union Free School District (town): math 50% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #311 of 755 in NY (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $12,253/mo this rent would consume 103% of the median local household income ($143k/yr) (locally 20% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $140k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($469k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $469,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.52%
• DSCR: 3.38
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $647,111
• List price: $499,000
• Delta: -22.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.78% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $342,124
• Equity at exit: $101,999

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.96×
• Total profit: $833,084
• Equity at exit: $92,067

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11954

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,253 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$624 /mo · $7,485/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,573
• Net cashflow: $6,231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,365

Max offer price $499,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $6,576	-5% $6,403	+0% $6,231	+5% $6,059	+10% $5,886
Rent	-10% $5,263	-5% $5,747	+0% $6,231	+5% $6,715	+10% $7,199
Rate	-1.0pp $6,482	-0.5pp $6,358	base $6,231	+0.5pp $6,102	+1.0pp $5,970

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16 Navy Rd Unit 206 Montauk, NY	1.0	1.0	600	$24,000	$40.00	25d	1	1.19mi
23 Fort Pond Rd Unit 13 Montauk, NY	1.0	1.0	600	$29,000	$48.33	25d	1	1.22mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $499,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $499,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $499,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $499,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $499,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $499,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $499,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $499,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $499,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $499,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $499,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $499,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-04-09
    listed $499,000 Active 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Beautiful freshly painted 1 bedroom, brand new bathroom with rainfall shower, living room has 2 brand new sofa's with full size pull out. Galley kitchen with new Stainless steel refrigerator, new microwave, new washer/dryer. Ample closet space and located on the second floor.

16. 2026-03-31
    historical $499,000 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Beautiful freshly painted 1 bedroom, brand new bathroom with rainfall shower, living room has 2 brand new sofa's with full size pull out. Galley kitchen with new Stainless steel refrigerator, new microwave, new washer/dryer. Ample closet space and located on the second floor.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥88°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $147,031
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$7,485
• − Insurance: −$2,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,762
• − Management: −$11,762
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable income: $71,058
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$17,054
• After-tax cash flow: $57,719/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This condo is in good condition with recent updates, including new appliances and fresh paint. It offers a good balance of curb appeal and interior updates, making it a solid investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Both New flooring in the living room — Updates the living room and improves the overall living experience.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve functionality and appeal to potential buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both New flooring in the living room — Updates the living room and improves the overall living experience. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve functionality and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montauk Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3619710
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $73,702
• Composite: 50.99/100
• National rank: #3831
• State rank: #311 of 755 in NY

Livability — Montauk

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #474
• US rank: #8373

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montauk, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 4,223
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 4,223
• Household income: $142,961
• Rent vs Own: 21.3% rent · 78.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.78%
• Current HPI: 577.7344
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Coming Soon $499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid