3912 Eagle Nest Lake Ln · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$364,999

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,724 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 107 Days on market

Built 2019 6,782 sqft lot $134/sqft · at area comps Est $359k · at est. $85/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Cimarron Creek in Magnolia East, conveniently located just south of FM 1488 and zoned to Magnolia ISD. This beautifully maintained home offers 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths with a spacious open-concept floorplan perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features a gas range, abundant cabinetry, generous counter space, and all appliances included. The primary suite is located downstairs with a private ensuite bath, while upstairs offers a large gameroom, three additional bedrooms, and a full bath. The home is impeccably clean and shows true pride of ownership. Enjoy charming curb appeal and a covered back patio already plumbed for a gas grill. Conveniently located near parks, shopping, dining, and entertainment with easy access to The Woodlands. Move-in ready and meticulously cared for. Home is occupied, please book via Showing Smart. see our video online!

Key facts

• Abundant cabinetry
• Gas range
• Private ensuite bath

Tags

• ZONED TO MAGNOLIA ISD
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• GAS RANGE
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• GENEROUS COUNTER SPACE
• PRIVATE ENSUITE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-789 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (38.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (22.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (38.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1621 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($332k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,540 (38.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.27%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $359,284
• List price: $364,999
• Delta: 1.59%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3933 Eagle Nest Lake Ln	0.06mi	4/3.0	2,736 (+0%)	11mo	$395,750	$145	85
8825 Twin Falls Ln	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,831 (+4%)	13mo	$399,000	$141	66
8804 Ute Creek Ln	0.25mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,579 (-5%)	8mo	$365,000	$142	64
9001 Cimarron River Ln	0.06mi	4/2.5	3,088 (+13%)	9mo	$375,000	$121	64
31518 Agassi Ct	0.40mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,691 (-1%)	11mo	$598,500	$222	61
10066 Cimarron Canyon Ln	0.09mi	4/2.5	3,096 (+14%)	12mo	$419,000	$135	59
8744 Ute Creek Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,418 (-11%)	7mo	$359,000	$148	58
39327 Lago Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,844 (+4%)	1mo	$649,800	$228	56
8741 Lookout Peak Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,450 (-10%)	10mo	$394,999	$161	53
7503 Revelwood Dr	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,553 (-6%)	9mo	$489,000	$192	51
8703 Miller Rd	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,398 (-12%)	10mo	$598,900	$250	43
7407 Ramblewood Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,442 (-10%)	2mo	$579,900	$237	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $141,440
• Equity at exit: $328,820

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.34×
• Total profit: $443,288
• Equity at exit: $709,113

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1621
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,824 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$869 /mo · $10,432/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$85
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$593
• Net cashflow: $-789

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,823

Max offer price $225,540

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-583	-5% $-686	+0% $-789	+5% $-893	+10% $-996
Rent	-10% $-1,013	-5% $-901	+0% $-789	+5% $-678	+10% $-566
Rate	-1.0pp $-606	-0.5pp $-697	base $-789	+0.5pp $-884	+1.0pp $-980

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3969 Eagle Nest Lake Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.5	2986	$2,895	$0.97	14d	1	0.15mi
33200 Forest West St Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1307	$4,065	$3.11	0d	22	1.07mi
7210 Alava Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2031	$2,235	$1.10	44d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $85 · $1,020/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $364,999 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $364,999 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $364,999 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $364,999 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $364,999 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $364,999 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $364,999 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $364,999 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $364,999 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $364,999 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $364,999 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $364,999 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $364,999 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $364,999 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-04-06
    price $364,999 889-char remark

    Show marketing remark (889 chars)

    Welcome to Cimarron Creek in Magnolia East, conveniently located just south of FM 1488 and zoned to Magnolia ISD. This beautifully maintained home offers 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths with a spacious open-concept floorplan perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features a gas range, abundant cabinetry, generous counter space, and all appliances included. The primary suite is located downstairs with a private ensuite bath, while upstairs offers a large gameroom, three additional bedrooms, and a full bath. The home is impeccably clean and shows true pride of ownership. Enjoy charming curb appeal and a covered back patio already plumbed for a gas grill. Conveniently located near parks, shopping, dining, and entertainment with easy access to The Woodlands. Move-in ready and meticulously cared for. Home is occupied, please book via Showing Smart. see our video online!

16. 2026-03-06
    listed $374,999 Active 889-char remark

    Show marketing remark (889 chars)

    Welcome to Cimarron Creek in Magnolia East, conveniently located just south of FM 1488 and zoned to Magnolia ISD. This beautifully maintained home offers 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths with a spacious open-concept floorplan perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features a gas range, abundant cabinetry, generous counter space, and all appliances included. The primary suite is located downstairs with a private ensuite bath, while upstairs offers a large gameroom, three additional bedrooms, and a full bath. The home is impeccably clean and shows true pride of ownership. Enjoy charming curb appeal and a covered back patio already plumbed for a gas grill. Conveniently located near parks, shopping, dining, and entertainment with easy access to The Woodlands. Move-in ready and meticulously cared for. Home is occupied, please book via Showing Smart. see our video online!

17. 2023-05-12
    soldstatus
18. 2023-05-09
    soldstatus Sold 834-char remark

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    Good as new home in Cimarron Creek! The house is so lightly lived in you can move right in and start decorating! Featuring 4 spacious bedrooms (3 with walk-in closet), 2 large living rooms, flex room and huge kitchen with tons of counterspace and cabinets! The kitchen also offers a gas range and ginormous island perfect! Primary suite is located downstairs with an ensuite bathroom. The gameroom with 3 bedrooms and hallway full bathroom are upstairs. Great storage in the house, too! The back patio is already plumbed for a gas grill. When you're not BBQ-ing in your backyard, hop on over to the neighborhood park with pavilion/tables, playground and pool! Many nearby amenities incl dining, shopping, movie theater and The Woodlands! Be sure to check out the virtual tour to see how close the property is to schools and amenities!

19. 2023-04-22
    status Pending 834-char remark

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    Good as new home in Cimarron Creek! The house is so lightly lived in you can move right in and start decorating! Featuring 4 spacious bedrooms (3 with walk-in closet), 2 large living rooms, flex room and huge kitchen with tons of counterspace and cabinets! The kitchen also offers a gas range and ginormous island perfect! Primary suite is located downstairs with an ensuite bathroom. The gameroom with 3 bedrooms and hallway full bathroom are upstairs. Great storage in the house, too! The back patio is already plumbed for a gas grill. When you're not BBQ-ing in your backyard, hop on over to the neighborhood park with pavilion/tables, playground and pool! Many nearby amenities incl dining, shopping, movie theater and The Woodlands! Be sure to check out the virtual tour to see how close the property is to schools and amenities!

20. 2023-04-11
    status Option Pending 834-char remark

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    Good as new home in Cimarron Creek! The house is so lightly lived in you can move right in and start decorating! Featuring 4 spacious bedrooms (3 with walk-in closet), 2 large living rooms, flex room and huge kitchen with tons of counterspace and cabinets! The kitchen also offers a gas range and ginormous island perfect! Primary suite is located downstairs with an ensuite bathroom. The gameroom with 3 bedrooms and hallway full bathroom are upstairs. Great storage in the house, too! The back patio is already plumbed for a gas grill. When you're not BBQ-ing in your backyard, hop on over to the neighborhood park with pavilion/tables, playground and pool! Many nearby amenities incl dining, shopping, movie theater and The Woodlands! Be sure to check out the virtual tour to see how close the property is to schools and amenities!

21. 2023-02-17
    price $364,900 834-char remark

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    Good as new home in Cimarron Creek! The house is so lightly lived in you can move right in and start decorating! Featuring 4 spacious bedrooms (3 with walk-in closet), 2 large living rooms, flex room and huge kitchen with tons of counterspace and cabinets! The kitchen also offers a gas range and ginormous island perfect! Primary suite is located downstairs with an ensuite bathroom. The gameroom with 3 bedrooms and hallway full bathroom are upstairs. Great storage in the house, too! The back patio is already plumbed for a gas grill. When you're not BBQ-ing in your backyard, hop on over to the neighborhood park with pavilion/tables, playground and pool! Many nearby amenities incl dining, shopping, movie theater and The Woodlands! Be sure to check out the virtual tour to see how close the property is to schools and amenities!

22. 2023-01-27
    listed $375,000 Active 834-char remark

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    Good as new home in Cimarron Creek! The house is so lightly lived in you can move right in and start decorating! Featuring 4 spacious bedrooms (3 with walk-in closet), 2 large living rooms, flex room and huge kitchen with tons of counterspace and cabinets! The kitchen also offers a gas range and ginormous island perfect! Primary suite is located downstairs with an ensuite bathroom. The gameroom with 3 bedrooms and hallway full bathroom are upstairs. Great storage in the house, too! The back patio is already plumbed for a gas grill. When you're not BBQ-ing in your backyard, hop on over to the neighborhood park with pavilion/tables, playground and pool! Many nearby amenities incl dining, shopping, movie theater and The Woodlands! Be sure to check out the virtual tour to see how close the property is to schools and amenities!

23. 2023-01-27
    historical

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    Good as new home in Cimarron Creek! The house is so lightly lived in you can move right in and start decorating! Featuring 4 spacious bedrooms (3 with walk-in closet), 2 large living rooms, flex room and huge kitchen with tons of counterspace and cabinets! The kitchen also offers a gas range and ginormous island perfect! Primary suite is located downstairs with an ensuite bathroom. The gameroom with 3 bedrooms and hallway full bathroom are upstairs. Great storage in the house, too! The back patio is already plumbed for a gas grill. When you're not BBQ-ing in your backyard, hop on over to the neighborhood park with pavilion/tables, playground and pool! Many nearby amenities incl dining, shopping, movie theater and The Woodlands! Be sure to check out the virtual tour to see how close the property is to schools and amenities!

24. 2023-01-09
    price $393,000
25. 2022-11-04
    listed $395,000 Active
26. 2022-11-01
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,432 · $869/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,432 · $869/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,889
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$10,432
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,711
• − Management: −$2,711
• − HOA: −$1,020
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$15,873
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,810
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,664/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $364,999 HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $374,999 HARMLS
• 2023-05-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-05-09 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-04-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-04-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-02-17 Price Changed $364,900 HARMLS
• 2023-01-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-01-27 Listed $375,000 HARMLS
• 2023-01-09 Price Changed $393,000 HARMLS
• 2022-11-04 Listed $395,000 HARMLS
• 2022-11-01 Coming Soon — HARMLS

Property tax history

+44.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,432 · -3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.