2809 SE 38th Ave · Taylor Creek, FL 34974

$58,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1968 8,233 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Escape to the peaceful waterfront lifestyle of Okeechobee! This approximately 0.19-acre lot offers coveted creek access ideal for fishing, kayaking, or simply soaking in the sights and sounds of Old Florida nature right outside your door. The existing structure is sold as-is and ready for removal, leaving a clean slate to place a brand-new manufactured home and design the property exactly to your taste. Tucked just minutes from downtown Okeechobee, shopping, and dining, and close to the world-famous bass fishing of Lake Okeechobee the "Big O. " No HOA means total freedom to make it your own. Affordable land with water access is increasingly rare here, making this a standout opport

Key facts

• Creek access
• Affordable land
• Fishing

Tags

• CREEK ACCESS
• WATER ACCESS
• FISHING
• KAYAKING
• NO HOA
• AFFORDABLE LAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 0.19 acres; Total acreage: less than 1/4 acre
• Financial info: Homestead exempt; Annual taxes listed (see public records)
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Other utilities
• Home design: Residential mobile home — single wide; One level; Home faces north
• Construction: Built with other construction materials; Other roof type; Other foundation details; Building area approx. 1,236 sq ft
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Road access via asphalt and dirt

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: No interior amenities listed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $58k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $579 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $58k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.3% vs local median 4.1% in Taylor Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#874 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Okeechobee (town): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #58 of 73 in FL (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 405 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Okeechobee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $401 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okeechobee County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,130 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.82%
• DSCR: 2.91
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $126,360
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4148 SE 27th St	0.27mi	2/1.5	612 (+2%)	18mo	$87,500	$143	67
4043 SE 29th Ct	0.20mi	2/1.0	552 (-8%)	17mo	$70,000	$127	63
3612 SE 25th St	0.23mi	2/2.0	672 (+12%)	8mo	$80,000	$119	59
3226 SE 26th St	0.37mi	2/1.0	552 (-8%)	19mo	$100,000	$181	54
2924 SE 25th St	0.54mi	2/1.0	528 (-12%)	14mo	$95,000	$180	43
4143 SE 22nd Ct	0.45mi	2/1.0	672 (+12%)	22mo	$105,000	$156	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $27,523
• Equity at exit: $8,648

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.41×
• Total profit: $71,548
• Equity at exit: $5,015

Cash invested: $16,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34974

• Home prices YoY: -15.6%
• Active inventory: 405
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,233 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$304
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $791/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $579

Break-even live

Break-even rent $499

Max offer price $58,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $612	-5% $596	+0% $579	+5% $563	+10% $547
Rent	-10% $482	-5% $531	+0% $579	+5% $628	+10% $677
Rate	-1.0pp $609	-0.5pp $594	base $579	+0.5pp $564	+1.0pp $549

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,500
• Closing costs: $1,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $58,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $58,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $58,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $58,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $68,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $68,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $68,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $68,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $78,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $78,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $78,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $78,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $78,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $78,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $78,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $78,000 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $78,000 Active 2 DOM
18. 2026-05-29
    listed $78,000 Active
19. 2007-01-16
    soldstatus $74,500
20. 2007-01-09
    soldstatus $65,000
21. 1985-09-01
    soldstatus $28,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $791 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $791 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,790
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,249
• − Property taxes: −$791
• − Insurance: −$290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,183
• − Management: −$1,183
• − Depreciation: −$1,687
• Taxable income: $6,407
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,538
• After-tax cash flow: $5,416/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okeechobee
• NCES district ID: 1201410
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $36,710
• Composite: 35.73/100
• National rank: #4855
• State rank: #58 of 73 in FL

Livability — Taylor Creek

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #874
• US rank: #23017

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Taylor Creek, FL
• County: Okeechobee County · 23,975 people
• Metro: Okeechobee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,975
• Household income: $53,013
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 399.0

Population outlook (Okeechobee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,273 people
• By 2030: 35,885 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 32,931 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 29,433 · -21.0%
• By 2075: 19,607 · -47.4%
• By 2100: 11,814 · -68.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 8% Asian 2% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okeechobee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.8) · D 22.9% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -53.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.8 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+39.5 2012: R+20.0 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.47%
• Current HPI: 348.6692
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Okeechobee, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+178.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $78,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $74,500 Public Records
• 2007-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1985-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $791 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.