125 Lithia Ave · Webster Groves, MO 63119

$207,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1915 6,751 sqft lot $185/sqft · 16% below area Est $245k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come back for another look at this cozy and charming Webster Groves, MO cutie! This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers a functional layout with more room than you’d expect! Step into the light-filled living room that flows into a separate dining area—perfect for everyday living or gathering with friends and family. The main level features two bedrooms, including a primary bedroom with new carpet and an attached half bath. The kitchen includes built-in microwave, electric oven, dishwasher, and refrigerator that can stay. Convenient main-floor laundry is located just off the back door, leading to a maintenance-free deck—ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Upstairs, you’ll find two additional bedrooms offering flexibility for guests, office space, or hobbies. The level backyard backs to trees and common ground, providing a peaceful setting for outdoor enjoyment. A newer driveway adds convenience, and the home is located near parks, restaurants, and all that popular Webster Groves has to offer. Don’t miss this opportunity for space, comfort, and location!

Key facts

• 6,751 sq ft lot
• Built 1915
• Listed 52 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $207k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $162 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.9% in Webster Groves — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#37 in MO, #3,184 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Webster Groves (suburban): math 56% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #7 of 324 in MO (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 155 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $58k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($201k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $145k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,777 (6.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.36%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,300
• List price: $207,000
• Delta: -15.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
630 Bell Ave	0.08mi	2/1.0	1,108 (-1%)	0mo	$225,000	$203	92
2835 Dunkirk Dr	0.36mi	2/1.0	1,142 (+2%)	0mo	$250,000	$219	78
2918 Wingate Ct	0.31mi	2/1.0	1,080 (-4%)	4mo	$280,000	$259	75
340 Madison Ave	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,061 (-5%)	1mo	$106,000	$100	69
716 Bell Ave	0.08mi	3/1.0 (+1)	966 (-14%)	0mo	$140,000	$145	66
126 Saint John Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,129 (+1%)	2mo	$325,000	$288	64
321 Madison Ave	0.25mi	2/1.0	986 (-12%)	4mo	$255,000	$259	63
2837 Manderly Dr	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,094 (-2%)	4mo	$284,900	$260	63
9719 Greenwood Ter	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,150 (+3%)	1mo	$235,000	$204	60
400 Corona Ct	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,028 (-8%)	1mo	$279,900	$272	58
519 Bismark Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,073 (-4%)	2mo	$295,000	$275	57
1057 Rockman Pl	0.72mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,035 (-8%)	2mo	$339,000	$328	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-13,043
• Equity at exit: $30,864

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $48,251
• Equity at exit: $17,898

Cash invested: $57,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63119

• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,928 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,086
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,268/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,723

Max offer price $207,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $279	-5% $221	+0% $162	+5% $104	+10% $45
Rent	-10% $10	-5% $86	+0% $162	+5% $238	+10% $314
Rate	-1.0pp $266	-0.5pp $215	base $162	+0.5pp $108	+1.0pp $54

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,750
• Closing costs: $6,210
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
539 N Elm Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1055	$1,500	$1.42	11d	1	0.18mi
927 N Elm Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	828	$1,800	$2.17	20d	1	0.20mi
324 Eldridge Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1015	$2,000	$1.97	2d	1	0.28mi
153 Willis Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1097	$2,100	$1.91	2d	1	0.31mi
425 Bismark Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	853	$2,095	$2.46	44d	1	0.48mi
9305 Manchester Rd St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	776	$1,445	$1.86	3d	12	0.48mi
139 W Kirkham Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.5	1163	$2,300	$1.98	15d	1	0.48mi
2820 Hilldale Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1140	$2,550	$2.24	2d	1	0.55mi
2806 Hilldale Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1104	$2,550	$2.31	2d	1	0.59mi
341 W Pacific Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,995	$1.66	20d	1	0.75mi
9724 Greenwood Ter Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	907	$1,525	$1.68	20d	1	0.75mi
2756 McKnight Crossing Ct Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1175	$2,425	$2.06	11d	1	0.76mi
2756 McKnight Crossing Ct Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1175	$2,425	$2.06	2d	1	0.76mi
9006 Madge Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,100	$2.10	8d	1	0.76mi
9816 Obrien Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1040	$2,100	$2.02	2d	1	0.90mi
226 E Lockwood Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	672	$2,570	$3.82	2d	5	0.91mi
72 Van Mark Way Brentwood, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	780	$1,249	$1.60	2d	4	0.93mi
2501 Mary Ave Brentwood, MO	1.0	1.5	1100	$1,725	$1.57	8d	1	1.05mi
8661 Litzsinger Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	910	$1,765	$1.94	44d	1	1.19mi
437 S Elm Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1242	$2,100	$1.69	2d	1	1.43mi
7880 Big Bend Blvd Unit 1st floor Webster Groves, MO	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,625	$1.48	44d	1	1.45mi
9035 W Swan Cir Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1450	$2,400	$1.66	11d	1	1.47mi
31 Sunnen Dr Maplewood, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	956	$2,428	$2.54	2d	17	1.49mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $207,000 Pending 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $207,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $207,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $207,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $207,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $207,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-05-05
   price $214,900 1094-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1094 chars)

   Come back for another look at this cozy and charming Webster Groves, MO cutie! This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers a functional layout with more room than you’d expect! Step into the light-filled living room that flows into a separate dining area—perfect for everyday living or gathering with friends and family. The main level features two bedrooms, including a primary bedroom with new carpet and an attached half bath. The kitchen includes built-in microwave, electric oven, dishwasher, and refrigerator that can stay. Convenient main-floor laundry is located just off the back door, leading to a maintenance-free deck—ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Upstairs, you’ll find two additional bedrooms offering flexibility for guests, office space, or hobbies. The level backyard backs to trees and common ground, providing a peaceful setting for outdoor enjoyment. A newer driveway adds convenience, and the home is located near parks, restaurants, and all that popular Webster Groves has to offer. Don’t miss this opportunity for space, comfort, and location!

8. 2026-04-16
   listed $219,900 Active 1094-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1094 chars)

   Come back for another look at this cozy and charming Webster Groves, MO cutie! This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers a functional layout with more room than you’d expect! Step into the light-filled living room that flows into a separate dining area—perfect for everyday living or gathering with friends and family. The main level features two bedrooms, including a primary bedroom with new carpet and an attached half bath. The kitchen includes built-in microwave, electric oven, dishwasher, and refrigerator that can stay. Convenient main-floor laundry is located just off the back door, leading to a maintenance-free deck—ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Upstairs, you’ll find two additional bedrooms offering flexibility for guests, office space, or hobbies. The level backyard backs to trees and common ground, providing a peaceful setting for outdoor enjoyment. A newer driveway adds convenience, and the home is located near parks, restaurants, and all that popular Webster Groves has to offer. Don’t miss this opportunity for space, comfort, and location!

9. 2026-04-15
   historical $219,900 1094-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1094 chars)

   Come back for another look at this cozy and charming Webster Groves, MO cutie! This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers a functional layout with more room than you’d expect! Step into the light-filled living room that flows into a separate dining area—perfect for everyday living or gathering with friends and family. The main level features two bedrooms, including a primary bedroom with new carpet and an attached half bath. The kitchen includes built-in microwave, electric oven, dishwasher, and refrigerator that can stay. Convenient main-floor laundry is located just off the back door, leading to a maintenance-free deck—ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Upstairs, you’ll find two additional bedrooms offering flexibility for guests, office space, or hobbies. The level backyard backs to trees and common ground, providing a peaceful setting for outdoor enjoyment. A newer driveway adds convenience, and the home is located near parks, restaurants, and all that popular Webster Groves has to offer. Don’t miss this opportunity for space, comfort, and location!

10. 2025-06-29
    price $219,000
11. 2025-06-29
    price $229,000
12. 2025-05-07
    status Active
13. 2025-05-02
    status Pending
14. 2025-04-30
    price $238,000
15. 2025-03-26
    price $242,500
16. 2025-03-15
    listed $249,900 Active
17. 2025-03-13
    historical
18. 2020-08-18
    soldstatus $144,900
19. 2020-07-24
    soldstatus Closed
20. 2020-07-12
    status Pending
21. 2020-07-11
    status Active
22. 2020-06-08
    status Pending
23. 2020-06-05
    listed $144,900 Active
24. 2020-05-27
    historical $144,900
25. 2005-10-05
    soldstatus $95,000
26. 2004-06-09
    soldstatus $77,000
27. 2004-06-02
    soldstatus $65,900
28. 1993-05-13
    soldstatus
29. 1993-05-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,268 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,268 · $189/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,133
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,595
• − Property taxes: −$2,268
• − Insurance: −$1,035
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,851
• − Management: −$1,851
• − Depreciation: −$6,022
• Taxable loss: −$1,489
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$357
• After-tax cash flow: $2,303/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Webster Groves
• NCES district ID: 2931530
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,389
• Composite: 54.99/100
• National rank: #1298
• State rank: #7 of 324 in MO

Livability — Webster Groves

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #3184

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Webster Groves, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 34,181
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 34,181
• Household income: $106,183
• Rent vs Own: 26.8% rent · 73.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1320.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -463.48%
• Current HPI: 221.7655
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+226.1% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $214,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Listed $219,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Coming Soon $219,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-29 Price Changed $219,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-29 Price Changed $229,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-07 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-02 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-30 Price Changed $238,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-26 Price Changed $242,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-15 Listed $249,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-13 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $144,900 Public Records
• 2020-07-24 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-12 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-11 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-08 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-05 Listed $144,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-27 Coming Soon $144,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2004-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2004-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $65,900 Public Records
• 1993-05-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-05-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,268 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.