6454 US Route 40 Lot 25 · Tipp City, OH 45371

$29,950

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 209 Days on market

Built 1969

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and beautifully updated mobile home located in a peaceful 55+ community (Crestview Estates). With a new Water Heater, Furnace and plumbing and just minutes from shopping, dining, and major highways, this one won't last long. This move-in ready home offers modern finishes, a bright open floor plan, and serene views with plenty of outdoor space to enjoy nature. Don't forget to enjoy the sunshine in the added bonus room for pure relaxation! A perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and country charm! Agent Owned

Key facts

• Updated mobile home
• New furnace
• New plumbing

Tags

• UPDATED MOBILE HOME
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW PLUMBING
• BRIGHT OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $882 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 46.7% vs local median 3.1% in Tipp City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#125 in OH, #1,827 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Tri-County North Local (rural): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #286 of 656 in OH (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 250 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 55 units permitted in Preble County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $208 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $898 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Preble County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $26,356 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 46.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 144.14%
• DSCR: 7.41
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.13×
• Total profit: $51,430
• Equity at exit: $4,466

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.02×
• Total profit: $117,535
• Equity at exit: $2,590

Cash invested: $8,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45371

• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,537 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$37 /mo · $449/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $882

Break-even live

Break-even rent $420

Max offer price $29,950

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,488
• Closing costs: $898
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $29,950 Active 209 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,950 Active 208 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $29,950 Active 207 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,950 Active 206 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $29,950 Active 204 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $29,950 Active 203 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,950 Active 200 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $29,950 Active 199 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $29,950 Active 198 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $29,950 Active 197 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $29,950 Active 194 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,950 Active 193 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,950 Active 192 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,950 Active 191 DOM
15. 2025-11-21
    listed $29,950 Active 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    Charming and beautifully updated mobile home located in a peaceful 55+ community (Crestview Estates). With a new Water Heater, Furnace and plumbing and just minutes from shopping, dining, and major highways, this one won't last long. This move-in ready home offers modern finishes, a bright open floor plan, and serene views with plenty of outdoor space to enjoy nature. Don't forget to enjoy the sunshine in the added bonus room for pure relaxation! A perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and country charm! Agent Owned

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,445
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,678
• − Property taxes: −$449
• − Insurance: −$1,652
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,476
• − Management: −$1,476
• − Depreciation: −$871
• Taxable income: $10,844
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,602
• After-tax cash flow: $7,983/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tri-County North Local
• NCES district ID: 3904926
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,112
• Composite: 51.38/100
• National rank: #1734
• State rank: #286 of 656 in OH

Livability — Tipp City

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #125
• US rank: #1827

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Miami County · 85,667 people
• City population: 22,865
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 22,865
• Household income: $93,599
• Rent vs Own: 27.7% rent · 72.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 465.0

Population outlook (Preble County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,711 people
• By 2030: 38,511 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 35,783 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 33,006 · -16.9%
• By 2075: 27,067 · -31.8%
• By 2100: 21,255 · -46.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Preble

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.1) · D 20.1% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.9pp toward R · 2008: -31.2pp · 2024: -59.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.1 2020: R+57.5 2016: R+54.0 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+31.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -178.63%
• Current HPI: 205.0064
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-21 Listed $29,950 WRIST