21638 Fairfield St · Johnson Park, CA 96013

$79,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · Other · 100 Days on market

Built 1971 0.31 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your Private Mountain Retreat in Shasta County Enjoy your own private oasis in the beautiful Intermountain Area of Shasta County. This mountain mobile home features a fully fenced yard, convenient carport, and multiple storage options for all your outdoor gear. Inside, the home is filled with natural light thanks to upgraded windows. The kitchen includes a gas range, and the home is equipped with central heating for year-round comfort. Located just minutes from the stunning Burney Falls, you'll have easy access to hiking, fishing, and the many recreation opportunities the Intermountain region is known for. Whether you're looking for a peaceful full-time residence, vacation getaway, or investment opportunity, this property offers mountain living with convenience and charm.

Key facts

• Upgraded windows
• Fully fenced yard
• Gas range

Tags

• PRIVATE MOUNTAIN RETREAT
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• CONVENIENT CARPORT
• MULTIPLE STORAGE OPTIONS
• UPGRADED WINDOWS
• GAS RANGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $542 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fall River Joint Unified (rural): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #335 of 517 in CA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $80k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,709 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.09%
• DSCR: 2.29
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $21,574
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.82×
• Total profit: $63,189
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96013

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,309 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $472/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $542

Break-even live

Break-even rent $622

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $588	-5% $565	+0% $542	+5% $520	+10% $497
Rent	-10% $439	-5% $491	+0% $542	+5% $594	+10% $646
Rate	-1.0pp $583	-0.5pp $563	base $542	+0.5pp $522	+1.0pp $501

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,900 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,900 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,900 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,900 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,900 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 79 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 78 DOM
18. 2026-03-13
    listed $79,900 Active 785-char remark

    Show marketing remark (785 chars)

    Your Private Mountain Retreat in Shasta County Enjoy your own private oasis in the beautiful Intermountain Area of Shasta County. This mountain mobile home features a fully fenced yard, convenient carport, and multiple storage options for all your outdoor gear. Inside, the home is filled with natural light thanks to upgraded windows. The kitchen includes a gas range, and the home is equipped with central heating for year-round comfort. Located just minutes from the stunning Burney Falls, you'll have easy access to hiking, fishing, and the many recreation opportunities the Intermountain region is known for. Whether you're looking for a peaceful full-time residence, vacation getaway, or investment opportunity, this property offers mountain living with convenience and charm.

19. 2023-03-10
    soldstatus $50,000 Closed 132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (132 chars)

    MOBILE NEEDS WORK ON A NICE DOUBLE LOT, BRING YOUR IMAGINATION AND GO TO WORK. PROPERTY IS FENCED AND A FEW OUTBUILDINGS FOR STORAGE

20. 2023-03-09
    soldstatus $49,000
21. 2023-01-31
    status Pending 132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (132 chars)

    MOBILE NEEDS WORK ON A NICE DOUBLE LOT, BRING YOUR IMAGINATION AND GO TO WORK. PROPERTY IS FENCED AND A FEW OUTBUILDINGS FOR STORAGE

22. 2023-01-24
    listed $59,900 Active 132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (132 chars)

    MOBILE NEEDS WORK ON A NICE DOUBLE LOT, BRING YOUR IMAGINATION AND GO TO WORK. PROPERTY IS FENCED AND A FEW OUTBUILDINGS FOR STORAGE

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $472 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $607 · $51/mo
• Expected delta: +$135/yr (+$11/mo · 28.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,705
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$472
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,256
• − Management: −$1,256
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $5,521
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,325
• After-tax cash flow: $5,182/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fall River Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0613470
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,991
• Composite: 26.57/100
• National rank: #7186
• State rank: #335 of 517 in CA

Livability — Johnson Park

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnson Park, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,929

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Serbian 3% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.44%
• Current HPI: 165.4515
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+33.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $79,900 SAOR
• 2023-03-10 Sold (MLS) $50,000 SAOR
• 2023-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 2023-01-31 Pending — SAOR
• 2023-01-24 Listed $59,900 SAOR

Property tax history

+13.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $472 · +71.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.