437 Ethel Ave · Dayton, OH 45417

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,085 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1945 7,453 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Completely Renovated & Move-In Ready! Charming brick Cape Cod has been completely rehabbed from top to bottom, offering the perfect blend of character and modern updates. The main floor features two bedrooms and a full bath, while the spacious upstairs primary suite includes its own full bathroom and convenient laundry area. Enjoy peace of mind with extensive updates including a new roof, gutters, HVAC system, windows, flooring, electrical, and plumbing. The kitchen comes equipped with new appliances backed by warranties. Outside, you'll find off-street parking and a low-maintenance yard, making this an ideal starter home or downsizing opportunity. At just $125,000, owning this fully

Key facts

• New flooring
• New gutters
• Completely renovated

Tags

• COMPLETELY RENOVATED
• NEW ROOF
• NEW GUTTERS
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property is for sale

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Home design: Brick construction; Residential zoning
• Construction: Brick exterior; Full unfinished basement
• Exterior features: Residential lot (~0.17 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms (11 x 11 and 11 x 7); One second-level room (28 x 11)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vinyl windows; Full unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $186 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (7.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $116k (7.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#716 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: River'S Edge Montessori Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,193 of 1,584 statewide, top 76%, 494 students, 0% FRL); Wogaman Middle School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #645 of 654 statewide, top 99%, 364 students, 0% FRL); Belmont High School (math 5% / reading 20%, grade F, #720 of 781 statewide, top 93%, 1,100 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 74% district-wide (74 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 140 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($37k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $116,040 (7.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.37%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $50,995
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2230 Lakeview Ave	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,102 (+2%)	5mo	$40,000	$36	76
236 S Ardmore Ave	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,192 (+10%)	0mo	$45,000	$38	74
2726 Mccall St	0.07mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-12%)	8mo	$50,000	$52	62
2923 Sage Ave	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+1%)	2mo	$86,000	$78	57
32 Anna St	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,140 (+5%)	8mo	$10,000	$9	56
2423 Germantown St	0.33mi	3/1.0	952 (-12%)	6mo	$120,000	$126	56
965 Haller Ave	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	958 (-12%)	1mo	$45,000	$47	50
105 Anna St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-7%)	2mo	$75,000	$74	49
1100 Haller Ave	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	999 (-8%)	4mo	$45,000	$45	47
32 S Plaza Ave	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,218 (+12%)	3mo	$34,000	$28	42
233 Westwood Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,236 (+14%)	1mo	$45,000	$36	38
3032 Germantown St	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,225 (+13%)	2mo	$79,500	$65	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-7,230
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $13,931
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45417

• Home prices YoY: -32.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,160 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $279/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $925

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $257	-5% $221	+0% $186	+5% $150	+10% $115
Rent	-10% $94	-5% $140	+0% $186	+5% $232	+10% $278
Rate	-1.0pp $249	-0.5pp $218	base $186	+0.5pp $153	+1.0pp $121

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
623 Clifton Dr Apt A Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	4d	1	0.12mi
623 Clifton Dr Apt B Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,174	$0.98	5d	1	0.12mi
2240 Lakeview Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,025	$0.97	45d	1	0.24mi
652 Dennison Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	988	$1,095	$1.11	23d	1	0.27mi
673 Randolph St Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	792	$950	$1.20	45d	1	0.30mi
70 Gramont Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	966	$1,300	$1.35	4d	1	0.62mi
42 S Mathison St Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,220	$0.94	5d	1	0.65mi
40 S Mathison St Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,200	$0.92	16d	1	0.65mi
1272 Clement Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,350	$1.32	4d	1	0.65mi
137 Westwood Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	784	$900	$1.15	5d	1	0.69mi
500 Bowie Dr Unit 122 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	850	$910	$1.07	45d	1	0.72mi
1515 W Stewart St Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	925	$1,000	$1.08	45d	1	0.79mi
216 N Ardmore Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,100	$0.73	5d	1	0.83mi
47 Leroy St Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1456	$1,200	$0.82	45d	1	0.86mi
342 Lookout Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$775	$0.97	45d	1	0.88mi
342 Lookout Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$750	$0.94	4d	1	0.88mi
437 Lorenz Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1322	$1,200	$0.91	25d	1	1.08mi
725 Maplehurst Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1104	$895	$0.81	45d	1	1.20mi
4109 Midway Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	971	$1,000	$1.03	5d	1	1.21mi
617 Westwood Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1304	$1,050	$0.81	45d	1	1.24mi
3939 Nicholas Rd Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	912	$1,200	$1.32	45d	1	1.26mi
3964 Nicholas Rd Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	912	$1,000	$1.10	5d	1	1.33mi
828 Walton Ave Unit 832 Walton Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	750	$795	$1.06	25d	1	1.36mi
635 Anna St Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	960	$1,300	$1.35	16d	1	1.38mi
660 Gramont Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1142	$1,050	$0.92	5d	1	1.42mi
863 N Upland Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1042	$1,200	$1.15	45d	1	1.43mi
3925 Hoover Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	936	$1,100	$1.18	4d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $125,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 695-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $125,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $279 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,114 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$836/yr (+$70/mo · 299.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,925
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$279
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,114
• − Management: −$1,114
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $155
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$37
• After-tax cash flow: $2,193/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton City
• NCES district ID: 3904384
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $28,688
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9579
• State rank: #641 of 656 in OH

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #12895

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dayton, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 164,387
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 28,186
• Household income: $36,945
• Rent vs Own: 52.1% rent · 47.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1822.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 20% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.43%
• Current HPI: 193.4175
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.06%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $125,000 Dayton MLS

Property tax history

-10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $279 · -74.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.