603 N West Ave · Holliday, TX 76366

$115,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,764 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 173 Days on market

Built 1964 $65/sqft · 36% below area Est $179k · 36% under ↓ 18% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Handyman heaven in Holliday! This As-Is well loved generational home of Mildred Chandler is ripe for updates & customization. This 3 bd 3 bth home features 2 living areas, dedicated dining space, open kitchen, spacious master w/ dressing area & AMPLE storage in master bth, fireplace, separate laundry, covered patio, double carport, brick veneer, & NEW roof in April 2025. An additional 4th bedroom could be accomplished easily by adding 1 wall. Affordable intro into the Holliday ISD market area!

Key facts

• Double carport
• Covered patio
• Brick veneer

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO
• AMPLE STORAGE
• FIREPLACE
• DOUBLE CARPORT
• BRICK VENEER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $28 ($337/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#420 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Holliday ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #66 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Archer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Archer County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.05%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $178,588
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -35.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.24% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $36,739
• Equity at exit: $74,029

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.31×
• Total profit: $106,488
• Equity at exit: $135,772

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76366

• Home prices YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,243 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$303 /mo · $3,639/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,208

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $93	-5% $61	+0% $28	+5% $-4	+10% $-37
Rent	-10% $-70	-5% $-21	+0% $28	+5% $77	+10% $126
Rate	-1.0pp $86	-0.5pp $57	base $28	+0.5pp $-2	+1.0pp $-32

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-30
   days on market $115,000 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-01-22
   price $115,000 517-char remark

   Show marketing remark (517 chars)

   Handyman heaven in Holliday! This As-Is well loved generational home of Mildred Chandler is ripe for updates & customization. This 3 bd 3 bth home features 2 living areas, dedicated dining space, open kitchen, spacious master w/ dressing area & AMPLE storage in master bth, fireplace, separate laundry, covered patio, double carport, brick veneer, & NEW roof in April 2025. An additional 4th bedroom could be accomplished easily by adding 1 wall. Affordable intro into the Holliday ISD market area!

3. 2026-01-03
   price $125,000 517-char remark

   Show marketing remark (517 chars)

   Handyman heaven in Holliday! This As-Is well loved generational home of Mildred Chandler is ripe for updates & customization. This 3 bd 3 bth home features 2 living areas, dedicated dining space, open kitchen, spacious master w/ dressing area & AMPLE storage in master bth, fireplace, separate laundry, covered patio, double carport, brick veneer, & NEW roof in April 2025. An additional 4th bedroom could be accomplished easily by adding 1 wall. Affordable intro into the Holliday ISD market area!

4. 2025-12-08
   listed $139,900 Active 517-char remark

   Show marketing remark (517 chars)

   Handyman heaven in Holliday! This As-Is well loved generational home of Mildred Chandler is ripe for updates & customization. This 3 bd 3 bth home features 2 living areas, dedicated dining space, open kitchen, spacious master w/ dressing area & AMPLE storage in master bth, fireplace, separate laundry, covered patio, double carport, brick veneer, & NEW roof in April 2025. An additional 4th bedroom could be accomplished easily by adding 1 wall. Affordable intro into the Holliday ISD market area!

5. 2020-06-24
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,639 · $303/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,639 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,921
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$3,639
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,194
• − Management: −$1,194
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$1,467
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$352
• After-tax cash flow: $689/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Holliday ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823400
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $68,523
• Composite: 51.19/100
• National rank: #1757
• State rank: #66 of 826 in TX

Livability — Holliday

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #8631

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holliday, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,096

Population outlook (Archer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,158 people
• By 2030: 7,855 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 7,120 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 6,320 · -22.5%
• By 2075: 4,842 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 3,527 · -56.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Archer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+79.3) · D 10.1% · R 89.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: -65.4pp · 2024: -79.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+79.3 2020: R+80.4 2016: R+79.4 2012: R+73.8 2008: R+65.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.24%
• Current HPI: 161.0661
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $115,000 WFAOR
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $125,000 WFAOR
• 2025-12-08 Listed $139,900 WFAOR
• 2020-06-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,639 · +49.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.