105 Elm St · Haw River, NC 27258

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,519 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1910 0.25 ac lot Est $225k · 11% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

🏡 Charming 1910 Home Near Downtown Haw River Step back in time to the Millhouse 1910-built residence, offering timeless character alongside location and convenience. Nestled just minutes from downtown Haw River, this home sits on a . 25-acre lot, providing both space and accessibility. 3 Bedrooms & 2 Baths: Comfortable layout with ample room for family or guests. Historic Charm: Original architectural details paired with some updates. Basement: Extra storage or potential workshop space. 2-Car Carport: Convenient covered parking to protect vehicles year-round. Outdoor Space: Quarter-acre lot perfect for gardening, entertaining, or simply enjoying the outdoors.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1910

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: 2-space carport; Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story house; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Shingle roof; Brick/mortar and concrete perimeter foundation; Built with vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Enclosed front porch; Front porch; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (forced air); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Bathtub/shower combination; Shower only; Ceiling fans; Living room fireplace; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry areas on the main level and in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $284 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#304 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Alamance-Burlington Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #133 of 178 in NC (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eastern Alamance High (math 61% / reading 61%, grade C+, #202 of 535 statewide, top 39%, 1,256 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 61% at this address vs 35% district-wide (+26 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Alamance-Burlington Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,466 units permitted in Alamance County in 2024 (403 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alamance County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.08%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $224,812
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
312 Lang Ct	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+7%)	16mo	$185,000	$114	70
219 Minnis Ln	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,716 (+13%)	1mo	$250,000	$146	57
1005 E Hanover Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,452 (-4%)	6mo	$295,000	$203	55
136 Pelham St	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,628 (+7%)	15mo	$241,000	$148	41
1255 Trollinger Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,743 (+15%)	15mo	$350,000	$201	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-14,379
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $10,597
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27258

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,975 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,734/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,616

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $397	-5% $340	+0% $284	+5% $227	+10% $170
Rent	-10% $128	-5% $206	+0% $284	+5% $362	+10% $440
Rate	-1.0pp $384	-0.5pp $334	base $284	+0.5pp $232	+1.0pp $179

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
116 E Main St Haw River, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,975	$1.94	14d	22	0.31mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-06
   status Active
3. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-07
   price $200,000
5. 2026-03-10
   status Active
6. 2026-01-02
   status Pending
7. 2025-12-20
   listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,734 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,734 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,734
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,896
• − Management: −$1,896
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $153
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$37
• After-tax cash flow: $3,367/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alamance-Burlington Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,359
• Composite: 29.68/100
• National rank: #6460
• State rank: #133 of 178 in NC

Livability — Haw River

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #12581

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haw River, NC
• Population (ZIP): 7,162

Population outlook (Alamance County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 173,381 people
• By 2030: 180,609 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 194,327 · +12.1%
• By 2050: 206,158 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 235,665 · +35.9%
• By 2100: 258,626 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 17% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alamance

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.2) · D 45.4% · R 53.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.1pp toward D · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -8.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.2 2020: R+8.4 2016: R+12.9 2012: R+14.1 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.97%
• Current HPI: 188.8786
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-05-06 Relisted — TMLS
• 2026-04-15 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $200,000 TMLS
• 2026-03-10 Relisted — TMLS
• 2026-01-02 Pending — TMLS
• 2025-12-20 Listed $225,000 TMLS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,734 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.