11901 Sierra Way Way · Kernville, CA 93238

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · Land · 112 Days on market

Built 1990 $75/sqft · 10% above area Est $90k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• ARV discount +2.9/15.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a great deal !! The home is 3 bedroom 2 full bath. Beautifully decorated with nice furnishing, window coverings, pellet stove and all appliances. In-door laundry off the kitchen. The seller is in the process of removing personal items and a few antique piece's but the majority of furniture which is very nice stays. The Seller will make a list. The property is fully fenced and cross fence for small animals and a storage shed for the extras. Covered deck in the front. Covered carport for parking with an additional back patio deck for entertaining. New roof recently, with dual pane windows through. The home is in excellent condition. There is a nice clubhouse with in ground pool, game room and BBQ area for the residents and there guest to enjoy. I say take a look !! This is a 55 plus community and park approval is mandatory.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Fully fenced
• Covered carport

Tags

• IN DOOR LAUNDRY
• FULLY FENCED
• CROSS FENCE
• STORAGE SHED
• COVERED DECK
• COVERED CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $395 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $90k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 1.9% in Kernville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#1,366 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $810 of equity ($684 loan paydown + $126 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($90k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $99k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.97%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $89,900
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: 10.12%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $22,911
• Equity at exit: $29,379

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $66,253
• Equity at exit: $35,824

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93238

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $395

Break-even live

Break-even rent $950

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
Burlando Rd Unit A Kernville, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,450	$1.53	3d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 94 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    price $99,000 841-char remark

    Show marketing remark (841 chars)

    This is a great deal !! The home is 3 bedroom 2 full bath. Beautifully decorated with nice furnishing, window coverings, pellet stove and all appliances. In-door laundry off the kitchen. The seller is in the process of removing personal items and a few antique piece's but the majority of furniture which is very nice stays. The Seller will make a list. The property is fully fenced and cross fence for small animals and a storage shed for the extras. Covered deck in the front. Covered carport for parking with an additional back patio deck for entertaining. New roof recently, with dual pane windows through. The home is in excellent condition. There is a nice clubhouse with in ground pool, game room and BBQ area for the residents and there guest to enjoy. I say take a look !! This is a 55 plus community and park approval is mandatory.

17. 2026-02-20
    listed $105,000 Active 841-char remark

    Show marketing remark (841 chars)

    This is a great deal !! The home is 3 bedroom 2 full bath. Beautifully decorated with nice furnishing, window coverings, pellet stove and all appliances. In-door laundry off the kitchen. The seller is in the process of removing personal items and a few antique piece's but the majority of furniture which is very nice stays. The Seller will make a list. The property is fully fenced and cross fence for small animals and a storage shed for the extras. Covered deck in the front. Covered carport for parking with an additional back patio deck for entertaining. New roof recently, with dual pane windows through. The home is in excellent condition. There is a nice clubhouse with in ground pool, game room and BBQ area for the residents and there guest to enjoy. I say take a look !! This is a 55 plus community and park approval is mandatory.

18. 2025-06-16
    soldstatus $51,000 Closed 828-char remark

    Show marketing remark (828 chars)

    This home built 1991 with 3 bedrooms 2 full baths. Master has walk-in closet. Open split wing floor plan with living/dining and kitchen. Dual pane windows through out. Nice sized kitchen with plenty of cabinet space and dining area. In-door laundry just off the kitchen. Nice composite front deck with a ramp so easy entry. Full length covered carport with nice sized fence area for pets. There are two storage units so plenty of space for the extras. There is a nice clubhouse with pool, game center & BBQ area for the residents to enjoy. All streets are paved and the park is well maintained. Park approval is mandatory and rent is 750.00 per month. This covers garbage and sewer. Beautiful Mountain views to enjoy and just 5 minutes to the market and quaint town of Kernville. Enjoy the shops and the mighty Kern River.

19. 2025-06-10
    historical Active Under Contract 828-char remark

    Show marketing remark (828 chars)

    This home built 1991 with 3 bedrooms 2 full baths. Master has walk-in closet. Open split wing floor plan with living/dining and kitchen. Dual pane windows through out. Nice sized kitchen with plenty of cabinet space and dining area. In-door laundry just off the kitchen. Nice composite front deck with a ramp so easy entry. Full length covered carport with nice sized fence area for pets. There are two storage units so plenty of space for the extras. There is a nice clubhouse with pool, game center & BBQ area for the residents to enjoy. All streets are paved and the park is well maintained. Park approval is mandatory and rent is 750.00 per month. This covers garbage and sewer. Beautiful Mountain views to enjoy and just 5 minutes to the market and quaint town of Kernville. Enjoy the shops and the mighty Kern River.

20. 2025-03-03
    listed $59,900 Active 828-char remark

    Show marketing remark (828 chars)

    This home built 1991 with 3 bedrooms 2 full baths. Master has walk-in closet. Open split wing floor plan with living/dining and kitchen. Dual pane windows through out. Nice sized kitchen with plenty of cabinet space and dining area. In-door laundry just off the kitchen. Nice composite front deck with a ramp so easy entry. Full length covered carport with nice sized fence area for pets. There are two storage units so plenty of space for the extras. There is a nice clubhouse with pool, game center & BBQ area for the residents to enjoy. All streets are paved and the park is well maintained. Park approval is mandatory and rent is 750.00 per month. This covers garbage and sewer. Beautiful Mountain views to enjoy and just 5 minutes to the market and quaint town of Kernville. Enjoy the shops and the mighty Kern River.

21. 2025-01-31
    soldstatus $89,900 Closed
22. 2025-01-02
    historical Active Under Contract
23. 2024-10-15
    price $89,900
24. 2024-09-13
    listed $99,900 Active
25. 2022-10-12
    soldstatus $72,500
26. 2022-08-27
    listed $75,000
27. 2019-06-06
    soldstatus $35,500
28. 2019-02-08
    listed $37,500
29. 2002-05-30
    soldstatus $125,000
30. 1989-06-01
    soldstatus $747,000
31. 1985-10-30
    soldstatus $655,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$1,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $3,413
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$819
• After-tax cash flow: $3,919/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kernville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619590
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $29,896
• Composite: 25.91/100
• National rank: #12766
• State rank: #1128 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Kernville

• Score: 42/100
• State rank: #1366
• US rank: #27076

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment F Housing D- Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kernville, CA
• Population (ZIP): 726

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Pacific Islander 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 3% Black 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Italian 7%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.13%
• Current HPI: 212.9272
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-84.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $99,000 SSMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $105,000 SSMLS
• 2025-06-16 Sold (MLS) $51,000 SSMLS
• 2025-06-10 Contingent — SSMLS
• 2025-03-03 Listed $59,900 SSMLS
• 2025-01-31 Sold (MLS) $89,900 SSMLS
• 2025-01-02 Contingent — SSMLS
• 2024-10-15 Price Changed $89,900 SSMLS
• 2024-09-13 Listed $99,900 SSMLS
• 2022-10-12 Sold (MLS) $72,500 SSMLS
• 2022-08-27 Listed $75,000 SSMLS
• 2019-06-06 Sold (MLS) $35,500 SSMLS
• 2019-02-08 Listed $37,500 SSMLS
• 2002-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 1989-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $747,000 Public Records
• 1985-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $655,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+61.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $22,528 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.