14118 W County Rd 173 · Odessa, TX 79766

$240,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,112 sqft · Manufactured · 103 Days on market

Built 2019 Fair condition 1.00 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 2019
• Listed 102 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $511 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).
• Recommended offer: $218k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D, schools F.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,400 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.13%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.91% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $86,564
• Equity at exit: $134,677

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.48×
• Total profit: $234,039
• Equity at exit: $231,344

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79766

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,525 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,494/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $511

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,877

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $647	-5% $579	+0% $511	+5% $443	+10% $375
Rent	-10% $312	-5% $412	+0% $511	+5% $611	+10% $711
Rate	-1.0pp $632	-0.5pp $572	base $511	+0.5pp $449	+1.0pp $386

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $240,000 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $240,000 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $240,000 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $240,000 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $240,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 87 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 84 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $240,000 Active 83 DOM
17. 2026-05-10
    price $240,000
18. 2026-04-24
    price $245,000
19. 2026-04-12
    price $250,000
20. 2026-04-11
    status Active
21. 2026-03-18
    historical
22. 2026-02-12
    listed $240,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,494 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,392 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,898/yr (+$242/mo · 194.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 89% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,294
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$1,494
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,424
• − Management: −$2,424
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable income: $2,328
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$559
• After-tax cash flow: $5,577/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, particularly to the exterior siding and landscaping, to improve its overall condition and marketability.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — Missing panels and weathered appearance
• Major Exterior landscaping — Sparse and needs improvement

Value-add opportunities

• Both Exterior siding repair and replacement — Improves curb appeal and home value
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances home's visual appeal and marketability
• Resale Paint touch-ups and minor repairs — Enhances home's appearance and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Missing panels and weathered appearance	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior landscaping · Sparse and needs improvement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Exterior siding repair and replacement — Improves curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances home's visual appeal and marketability ↑
• Resale Paint touch-ups and minor repairs — Enhances home's appearance and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 131,169
• Population (ZIP): 10,712

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 68% White 25% Two or more races 24% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 63% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 4% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 63%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.91%
• Current HPI: 222.3497
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $240,000 ODMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $245,000 ODMLS
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $250,000 ODMLS
• 2026-04-11 Relisted — ODMLS
• 2026-03-18 Delisted — ODMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $240,000 ODMLS

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,494 · -6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.