4160 M35 State Hwy · Ford River, MI 49829

$147,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,101 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1950 0.52 ac lot $70/sqft · 52% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lakefront Opportunity! This property offers breathtaking water views and 75 feet of Lake Michigan sandy beachfront with direct access-perfect for enjoying all that lake life has to offer. Please note: this property is in need of extensive structural repairs beyond cosmetic updates. Known issues include a broken floor joists and areas of the foundation that will require replacement. This is an ideal opportunity for investors, contractors, or buyers looking for a prime waterfront location. Bring your vision and make this lakefront property your own! Home will not pass most financing options. Cash, construction loan, or in house only. Appointment with pre-approval or proof of funds is required for a viewing.

Key facts

• 0.52 acre lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 44 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Mound septic system; Electricity connected; Natural gas available; Electric water heater
• Home design: One-story residential home; Built in 1950; Waterfront property with lake frontage
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Crawl and slab foundation; Built in 1950
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Owned fence; Shed; Lake view; Sand and vegetation shoreline; All-sports lake frontage (Lake Michigan)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Main floor bedroom — 17 x 12; Main floor bedroom — 10 x 13; Main floor bedroom — 12 (width listed as W=12)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main floor)
• Heating & cooling: Boiler heating; Radiant heat; In-floor supplemental heat; No cooling system listed
• Interior features: Hardwood floors; Living room fireplace (1 fireplace)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $147k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (4.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Escanaba Area Public Schools (town): math 31% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #243 of 540 in MI (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Delta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Delta County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,483 (4.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.82%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,044
• List price: $147,000
• Delta: -51.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-11,154
• Equity at exit: $21,918

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $6,475
• Equity at exit: $12,710

Cash invested: $41,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49829

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,405 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$771
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $938/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,152

Max offer price $147,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,750
• Closing costs: $4,410
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $147,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $147,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $147,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $147,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $147,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $147,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $147,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $147,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $147,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $147,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $147,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $147,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $147,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $147,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $147,000 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    listed $147,000 Active 628-char remark

    Show marketing remark (714 chars)

    Lakefront Opportunity! This property offers breathtaking water views and 75 feet of Lake Michigan sandy beachfront with direct access-perfect for enjoying all that lake life has to offer. Please note: this property is in need of extensive structural repairs beyond cosmetic updates. Known issues include a broken floor joists and areas of the foundation that will require replacement. This is an ideal opportunity for investors, contractors, or buyers looking for a prime waterfront location. Bring your vision and make this lakefront property your own! Home will not pass most financing options. Cash, construction loan, or in house only. Appointment with pre-approval or proof of funds is required for a viewing.

18. 2026-05-05
    listed $147,000 Active 628-char remark

    Show marketing remark (714 chars)

    Lakefront Opportunity! This property offers breathtaking water views and 75 feet of Lake Michigan sandy beachfront with direct access-perfect for enjoying all that lake life has to offer. Please note: this property is in need of extensive structural repairs beyond cosmetic updates. Known issues include a broken floor joists and areas of the foundation that will require replacement. This is an ideal opportunity for investors, contractors, or buyers looking for a prime waterfront location. Bring your vision and make this lakefront property your own! Home will not pass most financing options. Cash, construction loan, or in house only. Appointment with pre-approval or proof of funds is required for a viewing.

19. 2025-12-11
    historical
20. 2025-08-30
    price $223,500
21. 2025-08-30
    price $223,500
22. 2025-07-28
    price $228,500
23. 2025-07-28
    price $228,500
24. 2025-07-22
    price $234,500
25. 2025-07-21
    price $234,500
26. 2025-07-02
    listed $240,000 Active
27. 2016-05-04
    historical
28. 2015-11-30
    listed $103,244
29. 2015-09-26
    historical
30. 2015-03-25
    listed $115,000
31. 2014-06-04
    historical
32. 2014-04-08
    listed $129,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $938 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,601 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$663/yr (+$55/mo · 70.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,858
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,234
• − Property taxes: −$938
• − Insurance: −$735
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,349
• − Management: −$1,349
• − Depreciation: −$4,276
• Taxable loss: −$23
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5
• After-tax cash flow: $2,400/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escanaba Area Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2613500
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,187
• Composite: 31.97/100
• National rank: #5841
• State rank: #243 of 540 in MI

Livability — Ford River

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,859

Population outlook (Delta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,431 people
• By 2030: 33,003 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 29,748 · -13.6%
• By 2050: 26,753 · -22.3%
• By 2075: 20,962 · -39.1%
• By 2100: 15,616 · -54.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 14% Italian 4% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Delta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.4) · D 34.1% · R 64.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.7pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -30.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.4 2020: R+26.5 2016: R+25.4 2012: R+6.7 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.16%
• Current HPI: 247.9676
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+13.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $147,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $147,000 UPAR
• 2025-12-11 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-08-30 Price Changed $223,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-08-30 Price Changed $223,500 UPAR
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $228,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $228,500 UPAR
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $234,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $234,500 UPAR
• 2025-07-02 Listed $240,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-05-04 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-11-30 Listed $103,244 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-09-26 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-03-25 Listed $115,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-06-04 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-04-08 Listed $129,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $938 · -54.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.