Chappell Plan · Lockhart, TX 78644

$199,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 173 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home opens into a shared living space between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Secondary bedrooms
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $199,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $238,750.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-266 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.1% in Lockhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#535 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 580 students, 72% FRL); Lockhart J H (math 22% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,433 students, 74% FRL); Lockhart H S (math 21% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 1,968 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: 523 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 62d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 79% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $175,224 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.77%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,750
• List price: $199,999
• Delta: -16.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2330 Silvercloud Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+5%)	3mo	$224,990	$179	87
2318 Silvercloud Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+5%)	2mo	$219,990	$175	86
420 Silvercloud Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+5%)	4mo	$210,990	$167	76
428 Silvercloud Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+5%)	4mo	$210,990	$167	74
435 Silvercloud Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+5%)	4mo	$212,990	$169	71
2305 Blizzard Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+5%)	6mo	$209,990	$167	71
233 Sunshadow Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,292 (+8%)	12mo	$220,000	$170	71
2406 Windrow Ln	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,250 (+4%)	3mo	$175,000	$140	70
517 Thunderstorm Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+4%)	4mo	$159,990	$128	70
501 Silvercloud Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+5%)	4mo	$212,990	$169	70
2306 Blizzard Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+15%)	6mo	$191,990	$139	53
2300 Blizzard Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+15%)	5mo	$194,990	$141	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-55,583
• Equity at exit: $35,598

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-70,082
• Equity at exit: $20,643

Cash invested: $66,850 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.1 mo (32%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $223,499 ($159/sqft)
• Median days on market: 85 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +25.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78644

• Home prices YoY: -29.4%
• Active inventory: 523
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,752 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,252
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$298 /mo · $3,581/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,089

Max offer price $200,306

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-101	-5% $-183	+0% $-266	+5% $-348	+10% $-431
Rent	-10% $-404	-5% $-335	+0% $-266	+5% $-196	+10% $-127
Rate	-1.0pp $-145	-0.5pp $-205	base $-266	+0.5pp $-328	+1.0pp $-390

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,688
• Closing costs: $7,163
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
416 Silvercloud Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,599	$1.08	93d	1	0.23mi
432 Thunderstorm Ave Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1202	$1,550	$1.29	30d	1	0.24mi
432 Thunderstorm Ave Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1202	$1,550	$1.29	38d	1	0.24mi
415 Halfmoon Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,600	$1.31	73d	1	0.28mi
406 Halfmoon Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,800	$1.24	32d	1	0.31mi
2304 Blizzard Dr Lockhart, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	93d	1	0.33mi
510 Sunray Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,700	$1.17	73d	1	0.41mi
2400 Fullmoon Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,695	$1.15	93d	1	0.47mi
2306 Red Sky Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,650	$1.10	15d	1	0.52mi
2327 Red Sky Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,795	$1.22	9d	1	0.53mi
611 Halfmoon Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,695	$1.15	60d	1	0.57mi
2318 Tornado Aly Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,649	$1.14	9d	1	0.57mi
2306 Tornado Aly Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,600	$1.10	73d	1	0.58mi
2215 Cyclone Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,600	$1.28	62d	1	0.61mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $199,999 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $199,999 Active 171 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $199,999 Active 170 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $199,999 Active 169 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $199,999 Active 168 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $199,999 Active 165 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $199,999 Active 164 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $199,999 Active 163 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $199,999 Active 162 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $199,999 Active 160 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $199,999 Active 158 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $199,999 Active 157 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $199,999 Active 156 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $199,999 Active 155 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $199,999 Active 154 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $199,999 Active 152 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $199,999 Active 151 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $199,999 Active 150 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $199,999 Active 149 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $199,999 Active 148 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $199,999 Active 147 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $199,999 Active 146 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $199,999 Active 145 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $199,999 Active 144 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $199,999 Active 143 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $199,999 Active 141 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $199,999 Active 140 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $199,999 Active 139 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $199,999 Active 137 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $199,999 Active 136 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $199,999 Active 135 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $199,999 Active 134 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $199,999 Active 133 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $199,999 Active 132 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $199,999 Active 131 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $199,999 Active 130 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $199,999 Active 128 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $199,999 Active 126 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $199,999 Active 125 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $199,999 Active 122 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $199,999 Active 121 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $199,999 Active 120 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $199,999 Active 119 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $199,999 Active 117 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,999 Active 113 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,999 Active 112 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,999 Active 111 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,999 Active 108 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,999 Active 107 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,999 Active 106 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,374
• − Property taxes: −$3,581
• − Insurance: −$1,194
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,682
• − Management: −$1,682
• − Depreciation: −$6,945
• Taxable loss: −$7,432
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,784
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,405/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,000–$18,000 screening

This single-level home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good balance of style and functionality, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and improves aesthetics ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Navarro El F TX #2,706/4,322 Nat'l #28,012/41,679 High Lockhart H S F TX #1,204/1,632 Nat'l #11,887/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,868
• Composite: 24.44/100
• National rank: #7674
• State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Lockhart

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #10453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockhart, TX
• County: Caldwell County · 46,557 people
• City population: 22,348
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,348
• Household income: $74,709
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 39% Two or more races 23% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32%

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Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.62%
• Current HPI: 239.7906
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $199,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $199,990 Zillow