5419 Oxford Manor Cir · Kathleen, FL 33810

$279,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,825 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 2006 0.26 ac lot $39/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful home and neighborhood, nestled in the country, yet just minutes from all the conveniences in town. 3/2/2 with a study or flex room that could easily be used as a 4th bedroom. The home features a formal dining room, large kitchen and breakfast bar with a high vaulted ceiling over the kitchen and family room. Inviting rear, covered patio to enjoy and entertain. Very solid, well built home. AC replaced in March and hot water heater recently replaced. No CDD fees and very low HOA, only $402.50 Annually. The home is also located in Polk County outside of Lakeland City limits, so much lower county property taxes! The septic was recently pumped. Owners just pressured washed the house, painted interior, fresh mulch, cleaning and looking at replacing carpets etc. A great home or rental investment awaits. .. .HURRY!!

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Mature surroundings
• Quiet neighborhood

Tags

• 0.26 ACRE LOT
• OXFORD MANOR COMMUNITY
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• MATURE SURROUNDINGS
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential — Single Family Residence; Homestead: Yes; Total rooms: 7
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with required fees; HOA fee $469 annually ($39.08 monthly equivalent); Deed restrictions; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 garage spaces
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Public utilities available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Northeast-facing
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area reported (living area and building area provided)
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access; Lot approximately 0.26 acres (1/4 to less than 1/2 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No additional interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9 ($104/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#752 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sleepy Hill Elementary School (math 44% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,454 of 2,144 statewide, top 69%, 739 students, 66% FRL); Kathleen Middle School (math 28% / reading 28%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 821 students, 68% FRL); Kathleen Senior High School (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #501 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,051 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 511 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,973 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.13%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-45,308
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-40,801
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33810

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 511
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,470 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$319 /mo · $3,828/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$39
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,459

Max offer price $279,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $167	-5% $88	+0% $9	+5% $-71	+10% $-150
Rent	-10% $-186	-5% $-89	+0% $9	+5% $106	+10% $204
Rate	-1.0pp $150	-0.5pp $80	base $9	+0.5pp $-64	+1.0pp $-138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5537 Creek Haven Way Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	2106	$2,150	$1.02	21d	1	0.38mi
3634 Sherertz Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,825	$1.42	5d	1	1.13mi
3987 Sunset Lake Dr Lakeland, FL	4.0	3.0	2223	$4,500	$2.02	16d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $39 · $468/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-01
   price $279,900
3. 2026-04-20
   status Active
4. 2026-04-02
   price $290,000
5. 2026-03-17
   listed $310,000 Active
6. 2022-07-21
   soldstatus $350,000
7. 2022-07-19
   soldstatus $350,000 Closed 828-char remark

   Show marketing remark (828 chars)

   Beautiful home and neighborhood, nestled in the country, yet just minutes from all the conveniences in town. 3/2/2 with a study or flex room that could easily be used as a 4th bedroom. The home features a formal dining room, large kitchen and breakfast bar with a high vaulted ceiling over the kitchen and family room. Inviting rear, covered patio to enjoy and entertain. Very solid, well built home. AC replaced in March and hot water heater recently replaced. No CDD fees and very low HOA, only $402.50 Annually. The home is also located in Polk County outside of Lakeland City limits, so much lower county property taxes! The septic was recently pumped. Owners just pressured washed the house, painted interior, fresh mulch, cleaning and looking at replacing carpets etc. A great home or rental investment awaits. .. .HURRY!!

8. 2022-06-10
   status Pending 828-char remark

   Show marketing remark (828 chars)

   Beautiful home and neighborhood, nestled in the country, yet just minutes from all the conveniences in town. 3/2/2 with a study or flex room that could easily be used as a 4th bedroom. The home features a formal dining room, large kitchen and breakfast bar with a high vaulted ceiling over the kitchen and family room. Inviting rear, covered patio to enjoy and entertain. Very solid, well built home. AC replaced in March and hot water heater recently replaced. No CDD fees and very low HOA, only $402.50 Annually. The home is also located in Polk County outside of Lakeland City limits, so much lower county property taxes! The septic was recently pumped. Owners just pressured washed the house, painted interior, fresh mulch, cleaning and looking at replacing carpets etc. A great home or rental investment awaits. .. .HURRY!!

9. 2022-06-07
   price $2,160
10. 2022-05-03
    status Active 828-char remark

    Show marketing remark (828 chars)

    Beautiful home and neighborhood, nestled in the country, yet just minutes from all the conveniences in town. 3/2/2 with a study or flex room that could easily be used as a 4th bedroom. The home features a formal dining room, large kitchen and breakfast bar with a high vaulted ceiling over the kitchen and family room. Inviting rear, covered patio to enjoy and entertain. Very solid, well built home. AC replaced in March and hot water heater recently replaced. No CDD fees and very low HOA, only $402.50 Annually. The home is also located in Polk County outside of Lakeland City limits, so much lower county property taxes! The septic was recently pumped. Owners just pressured washed the house, painted interior, fresh mulch, cleaning and looking at replacing carpets etc. A great home or rental investment awaits. .. .HURRY!!

11. 2022-04-25
    status Pending 828-char remark

    Show marketing remark (828 chars)

    Beautiful home and neighborhood, nestled in the country, yet just minutes from all the conveniences in town. 3/2/2 with a study or flex room that could easily be used as a 4th bedroom. The home features a formal dining room, large kitchen and breakfast bar with a high vaulted ceiling over the kitchen and family room. Inviting rear, covered patio to enjoy and entertain. Very solid, well built home. AC replaced in March and hot water heater recently replaced. No CDD fees and very low HOA, only $402.50 Annually. The home is also located in Polk County outside of Lakeland City limits, so much lower county property taxes! The septic was recently pumped. Owners just pressured washed the house, painted interior, fresh mulch, cleaning and looking at replacing carpets etc. A great home or rental investment awaits. .. .HURRY!!

12. 2022-04-18
    listed $339,900 Active 828-char remark

    Show marketing remark (828 chars)

    Beautiful home and neighborhood, nestled in the country, yet just minutes from all the conveniences in town. 3/2/2 with a study or flex room that could easily be used as a 4th bedroom. The home features a formal dining room, large kitchen and breakfast bar with a high vaulted ceiling over the kitchen and family room. Inviting rear, covered patio to enjoy and entertain. Very solid, well built home. AC replaced in March and hot water heater recently replaced. No CDD fees and very low HOA, only $402.50 Annually. The home is also located in Polk County outside of Lakeland City limits, so much lower county property taxes! The septic was recently pumped. Owners just pressured washed the house, painted interior, fresh mulch, cleaning and looking at replacing carpets etc. A great home or rental investment awaits. .. .HURRY!!

13. 2021-04-30
    historical 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    Fantastic Brand New Home on 80x140 lot with large trees. It looks like a park. This home is in fast growing North Lakeland close to everything. Located only 25 minutes to Brandon, and 40 minutes to downtown Tampa, the easy drive commute isworth it. This home in Hillsborough County would be almost $400,000. You must see it to believe it. 3 bedrooms PLUS an office or den, or it could be used for a 4th bedroom. Lots of ceramic tile, wood kitchen cabinets, a covered lanai, sprinkler system and much much more. Live in clean air just 5 minutes from the largest mall in the region. POSSIBLE LEASE PURCHASE.

14. 2009-04-21
    historical
15. 2006-09-25
    listed $314,900
16. 2006-06-05
    listed $309,900 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    Fantastic Brand New Home on 80x140 lot with large trees. It looks like a park. This home is in fast growing North Lakeland close to everything. Located only 25 minutes to Brandon, and 40 minutes to downtown Tampa, the easy drive commute isworth it. This home in Hillsborough County would be almost $400,000. You must see it to believe it. 3 bedrooms PLUS an office or den, or it could be used for a 4th bedroom. Lots of ceramic tile, wood kitchen cabinets, a covered lanai, sprinkler system and much much more. Live in clean air just 5 minutes from the largest mall in the region. POSSIBLE LEASE PURCHASE.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,828 · $319/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,828 · $319/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,637
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$3,828
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,371
• − Management: −$2,371
• − HOA: −$468
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$4,622
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,109
• After-tax cash flow: $1,213/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Kathleen

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #752
• US rank: #16450

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 52,734
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,137
• Household income: $69,986
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1208.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.94%
• Current HPI: 320.7366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-9.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $279,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $290,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Listed $310,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $350,000 Public Records
• 2022-07-19 Sold (MLS) $350,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-07 Price Changed $2,160 RENT.
• 2022-05-03 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-18 Listed $339,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-09-25 Listed $314,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-05 Listed $309,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,828 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.