4800 Fargo Rd · Croswell, MI 48422

$124,999

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 3,300 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 1970 1.27 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTOR SPECIAL - 3300 SQ FT HOME + POLE BARN ON SPACIOUS COUNTRY SETTING Calling all investors, flippers, and value-add buyers. This 3300 sq ft, 4-bedroom, 1-bath home offers serious potential for the right buyer. The property needs work throughout, but the structure, layout, and bones are solid, giving you a strong foundation to bring this home back to life. Sitting on a generous lot with a large pole barn, this property is ideal for anyone looking to create equity, renovate for resale, or build a long-term rental asset. The square footage alone provides endless possibilities - open up the floor plan, add additional bathrooms, or reconfigure the space to maximize value. If you're looking for a project with upside, this is it. Being sold as-is and priced accordingly for a quick investor-friendly sale.

Key facts

• Generous lot
• 1.27 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• SPACIOUS COUNTRY SETTING
• GENEROUS LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-and-one-half story; Ground-level entry with steps
• Construction: Stone foundation; Stone and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Gravel road access; Lot dimensions approximately 189 x 281 x 186 x 282 on a 1.27-acre lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wood heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $497 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#549 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, amenities F.
• Croswell-Lexington Community Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #239 of 540 in MI (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Frostick School (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #606 of 1,397 statewide, top 48%, 344 students, 67% FRL); Croswelllexington Middle School (math 21% / reading 45%, grade F, #306 of 493 statewide, top 63%, 553 students, 56% FRL); Croswelllexington High School (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #214 of 713 statewide, top 36%, 579 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Sanilac County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sanilac County population projected at -31% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $124,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.03%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $11,318
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $50,360
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48422

• Home prices YoY: -10.2%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,561 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $345/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $497

Break-even live

Break-even rent $932

Max offer price $124,999

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $567	-5% $532	+0% $497	+5% $461	+10% $426
Rent	-10% $373	-5% $435	+0% $497	+5% $558	+10% $620
Rate	-1.0pp $560	-0.5pp $528	base $497	+0.5pp $464	+1.0pp $431

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $124,999 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 687-char remark

   Show marketing remark (816 chars)

   INVESTOR SPECIAL - 3300 SQ FT HOME + POLE BARN ON SPACIOUS COUNTRY SETTING Calling all investors, flippers, and value-add buyers. This 3300 sq ft, 4-bedroom, 1-bath home offers serious potential for the right buyer. The property needs work throughout, but the structure, layout, and bones are solid, giving you a strong foundation to bring this home back to life. Sitting on a generous lot with a large pole barn, this property is ideal for anyone looking to create equity, renovate for resale, or build a long-term rental asset. The square footage alone provides endless possibilities - open up the floor plan, add additional bathrooms, or reconfigure the space to maximize value. If you're looking for a project with upside, this is it. Being sold as-is and priced accordingly for a quick investor-friendly sale.

3. 2026-06-17
   listed $124,999 Active 1 DOM

   Show marketing remark (816 chars)

   INVESTOR SPECIAL - 3300 SQ FT HOME + POLE BARN ON SPACIOUS COUNTRY SETTING Calling all investors, flippers, and value-add buyers. This 3300 sq ft, 4-bedroom, 1-bath home offers serious potential for the right buyer. The property needs work throughout, but the structure, layout, and bones are solid, giving you a strong foundation to bring this home back to life. Sitting on a generous lot with a large pole barn, this property is ideal for anyone looking to create equity, renovate for resale, or build a long-term rental asset. The square footage alone provides endless possibilities - open up the floor plan, add additional bathrooms, or reconfigure the space to maximize value. If you're looking for a project with upside, this is it. Being sold as-is and priced accordingly for a quick investor-friendly sale.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $345 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,135 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$790/yr (+$66/mo · 228.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,729
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$345
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,498
• − Management: −$1,498
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $4,123
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$990
• After-tax cash flow: $4,970/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Croswell-Lexington Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2611140
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $42,784
• Composite: 32.49/100
• National rank: #5707
• State rank: #239 of 540 in MI

Livability — Croswell

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #549
• US rank: #17207

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,172

Population outlook (Sanilac County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,948 people
• By 2030: 35,772 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 30,996 · -18.3%
• By 2050: 26,280 · -30.7%
• By 2075: 17,471 · -54.0%
• By 2100: 10,572 · -72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sanilac

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.7) · D 25.5% · R 73.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.6pp toward R · 2008: -8.1pp · 2024: -47.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.7 2020: R+45.6 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+20.4 2008: R+8.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.65%
• Current HPI: 268.6695
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $124,999 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-17 Listed $124,999 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $345 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.