512 SW 2nd St · Kerens, TX 75144

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,433 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 224 Days on market

Built 1935 8,407 sqft lot $84/sqft · 41% below area Est $203k · 41% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW ROOF JANUARY 2026!! Looking for a simple, character-filled home in a quiet town where life feels a little slower? This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home in Kerens, built in 1935, offers classic charm with everyday comfort. Step inside to a cozy living area filled with natural light and a separate dining room that’s perfect for meals or morning coffee. The layout feels warm and welcoming, with just the right amount of space for easy living. Outside, the front porch is made for relaxing evenings, while the partially fenced yard adds flexibility for pets or outdoor time. A detached garage provides extra storage or parking. Whether you’re buying your first home, downsizing, or adding a rental to your portfolio, this home fits a variety of needs.Enjoy small-town living with convenient access to local shops and daily essentials.

Key facts

• Partially fenced
• Separate dining room
• Natural light

Tags

• COZY LIVING AREA
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• NATURAL LIGHT
• PARTIALLY FENCED
• DETACHED GARAGE
• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $532 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 1.6% in Kerens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#866 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Kerens ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #495 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 183 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 522 units permitted in Navarro County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Navarro County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (5.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.99%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $202,710
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -40.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
608 SW 3rd St	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,480 (+3%)	3mo	$234,000	$158	79
103 S Alma Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,504 (+5%)	8mo	$250,000	$166	72
401 N Goodman Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,365 (-5%)	2mo	$235,000	$172	67
408 S Throckmorton Ave	0.28mi	2/1.0	1,283 (-10%)	6mo	$150,000	$117	65
508 NW 4th St	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,460 (+2%)	13mo	$235,000	$161	63
504 NW 4th St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,270 (-11%)	7mo	$184,900	$146	52
410 S Donaldson Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,452 (+1%)	15mo	$189,999	$131	48
307 NE 2nd St	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,600 (+12%)	3mo	$134,900	$84	48
812 N Wright Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,494 (+4%)	8mo	$135,000	$90	46
308 N Goodman Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,616 (+13%)	15mo	$215,000	$133	44
316 N Overlook Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,279 (-11%)	21mo	$129,000	$101	39
300 L S P Cir	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,605 (+12%)	9mo	$234,999	$146	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $65,769
• Equity at exit: $72,494

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.99×
• Total profit: $167,759
• Equity at exit: $128,997

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75144

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,582/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $532

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,027

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $600	-5% $566	+0% $532	+5% $498	+10% $464
Rent	-10% $398	-5% $465	+0% $532	+5% $599	+10% $666
Rate	-1.0pp $592	-0.5pp $562	base $532	+0.5pp $501	+1.0pp $469

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
410 SW 3rd St Kerens, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$1,700	$0.95	44d	1	0.10mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 842-char remark

   Show marketing remark (842 chars)

   NEW ROOF JANUARY 2026!! Looking for a simple, character-filled home in a quiet town where life feels a little slower? This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home in Kerens, built in 1935, offers classic charm with everyday comfort. Step inside to a cozy living area filled with natural light and a separate dining room that’s perfect for meals or morning coffee. The layout feels warm and welcoming, with just the right amount of space for easy living. Outside, the front porch is made for relaxing evenings, while the partially fenced yard adds flexibility for pets or outdoor time. A detached garage provides extra storage or parking. Whether you’re buying your first home, downsizing, or adding a rental to your portfolio, this home fits a variety of needs.Enjoy small-town living with convenient access to local shops and daily essentials.

2. 2026-05-09
   historical Active Option Contract 842-char remark

   Show marketing remark (842 chars)

   NEW ROOF JANUARY 2026!! Looking for a simple, character-filled home in a quiet town where life feels a little slower? This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home in Kerens, built in 1935, offers classic charm with everyday comfort. Step inside to a cozy living area filled with natural light and a separate dining room that’s perfect for meals or morning coffee. The layout feels warm and welcoming, with just the right amount of space for easy living. Outside, the front porch is made for relaxing evenings, while the partially fenced yard adds flexibility for pets or outdoor time. A detached garage provides extra storage or parking. Whether you’re buying your first home, downsizing, or adding a rental to your portfolio, this home fits a variety of needs.Enjoy small-town living with convenient access to local shops and daily essentials.

3. 2026-04-26
   price $120,000 842-char remark

   Show marketing remark (842 chars)

   NEW ROOF JANUARY 2026!! Looking for a simple, character-filled home in a quiet town where life feels a little slower? This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home in Kerens, built in 1935, offers classic charm with everyday comfort. Step inside to a cozy living area filled with natural light and a separate dining room that’s perfect for meals or morning coffee. The layout feels warm and welcoming, with just the right amount of space for easy living. Outside, the front porch is made for relaxing evenings, while the partially fenced yard adds flexibility for pets or outdoor time. A detached garage provides extra storage or parking. Whether you’re buying your first home, downsizing, or adding a rental to your portfolio, this home fits a variety of needs.Enjoy small-town living with convenient access to local shops and daily essentials.

4. 2026-03-18
   status Active 842-char remark

   Show marketing remark (842 chars)

   NEW ROOF JANUARY 2026!! Looking for a simple, character-filled home in a quiet town where life feels a little slower? This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home in Kerens, built in 1935, offers classic charm with everyday comfort. Step inside to a cozy living area filled with natural light and a separate dining room that’s perfect for meals or morning coffee. The layout feels warm and welcoming, with just the right amount of space for easy living. Outside, the front porch is made for relaxing evenings, while the partially fenced yard adds flexibility for pets or outdoor time. A detached garage provides extra storage or parking. Whether you’re buying your first home, downsizing, or adding a rental to your portfolio, this home fits a variety of needs.Enjoy small-town living with convenient access to local shops and daily essentials.

5. 2026-03-14
   historical Active Option Contract 842-char remark

   Show marketing remark (842 chars)

   NEW ROOF JANUARY 2026!! Looking for a simple, character-filled home in a quiet town where life feels a little slower? This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home in Kerens, built in 1935, offers classic charm with everyday comfort. Step inside to a cozy living area filled with natural light and a separate dining room that’s perfect for meals or morning coffee. The layout feels warm and welcoming, with just the right amount of space for easy living. Outside, the front porch is made for relaxing evenings, while the partially fenced yard adds flexibility for pets or outdoor time. A detached garage provides extra storage or parking. Whether you’re buying your first home, downsizing, or adding a rental to your portfolio, this home fits a variety of needs.Enjoy small-town living with convenient access to local shops and daily essentials.

6. 2026-01-08
   price $128,999 842-char remark

   Show marketing remark (842 chars)

   NEW ROOF JANUARY 2026!! Looking for a simple, character-filled home in a quiet town where life feels a little slower? This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home in Kerens, built in 1935, offers classic charm with everyday comfort. Step inside to a cozy living area filled with natural light and a separate dining room that’s perfect for meals or morning coffee. The layout feels warm and welcoming, with just the right amount of space for easy living. Outside, the front porch is made for relaxing evenings, while the partially fenced yard adds flexibility for pets or outdoor time. A detached garage provides extra storage or parking. Whether you’re buying your first home, downsizing, or adding a rental to your portfolio, this home fits a variety of needs.Enjoy small-town living with convenient access to local shops and daily essentials.

7. 2025-11-19
   status Active 842-char remark

   Show marketing remark (842 chars)

   NEW ROOF JANUARY 2026!! Looking for a simple, character-filled home in a quiet town where life feels a little slower? This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home in Kerens, built in 1935, offers classic charm with everyday comfort. Step inside to a cozy living area filled with natural light and a separate dining room that’s perfect for meals or morning coffee. The layout feels warm and welcoming, with just the right amount of space for easy living. Outside, the front porch is made for relaxing evenings, while the partially fenced yard adds flexibility for pets or outdoor time. A detached garage provides extra storage or parking. Whether you’re buying your first home, downsizing, or adding a rental to your portfolio, this home fits a variety of needs.Enjoy small-town living with convenient access to local shops and daily essentials.

8. 2025-11-09
   historical Active Option Contract 842-char remark

   Show marketing remark (842 chars)

   NEW ROOF JANUARY 2026!! Looking for a simple, character-filled home in a quiet town where life feels a little slower? This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home in Kerens, built in 1935, offers classic charm with everyday comfort. Step inside to a cozy living area filled with natural light and a separate dining room that’s perfect for meals or morning coffee. The layout feels warm and welcoming, with just the right amount of space for easy living. Outside, the front porch is made for relaxing evenings, while the partially fenced yard adds flexibility for pets or outdoor time. A detached garage provides extra storage or parking. Whether you’re buying your first home, downsizing, or adding a rental to your portfolio, this home fits a variety of needs.Enjoy small-town living with convenient access to local shops and daily essentials.

9. 2025-10-04
   listed $129,000 Active 842-char remark

   Show marketing remark (842 chars)

   NEW ROOF JANUARY 2026!! Looking for a simple, character-filled home in a quiet town where life feels a little slower? This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home in Kerens, built in 1935, offers classic charm with everyday comfort. Step inside to a cozy living area filled with natural light and a separate dining room that’s perfect for meals or morning coffee. The layout feels warm and welcoming, with just the right amount of space for easy living. Outside, the front porch is made for relaxing evenings, while the partially fenced yard adds flexibility for pets or outdoor time. A detached garage provides extra storage or parking. Whether you’re buying your first home, downsizing, or adding a rental to your portfolio, this home fits a variety of needs.Enjoy small-town living with convenient access to local shops and daily essentials.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,582 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$614/yr (+$51/mo · 38.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,582
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $4,741
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,138
• After-tax cash flow: $5,244/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kerens ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825530
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,364
• Composite: 30.81/100
• National rank: #6142
• State rank: #495 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kerens

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #866
• US rank: #15598

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kerens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,798

Population outlook (Navarro County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,397 people
• By 2030: 48,096 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 47,394 · -2.1%
• By 2050: 46,541 · -3.8%
• By 2075: 44,940 · -7.1%
• By 2100: 42,288 · -12.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Navarro

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.8) · D 23.7% · R 75.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: -33.1pp · 2024: -51.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.8 2020: R+45.5 2016: R+48.8 2012: R+42.4 2008: R+33.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.61%
• Current HPI: 236.2915
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-09 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $120,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-18 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-03-14 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $128,999 NTREIS
• 2025-11-19 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-11-09 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-10-04 Listed $129,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,582 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.