1980 Pedregal Dr · Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77650

$404,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 112 Days on market

Built 2024 7,248 sqft lot $295/sqft · at area comps Est $414k · at est. $17/mo HOA ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Recently built beach home offering a great 4-bedroom floor plan with 2 full baths, designed to maximize comfort and functionality. The open living, dining, and kitchen areas create an inviting space for gathering and entertaining, while the well-sized bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or rental use. Located in Crystal Beach, this home supports a relaxed coastal lifestyle and is suitable as a primary residence, second home, or short-term rental property. Thoughtful design elements and quality craftsmanship by Prestige Custom Built contribute to long-term value and everyday livability, making this an attractive opportunity on the Bolivar Peninsula.

Key facts

• Beach home
• 7,248 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• BEACH HOME
• OPEN LIVING DINING KITCHEN
• QUALITY CRAFTSMANSHIP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $404k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $346k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $346k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.1% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Galveston ISD (town): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #514 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oppe El (math 67% / reading 60%, grade B, #291 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 610 students, 63% FRL); Central Middle (math 18% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 879 students, 80% FRL); Ball H S (math 17% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,632 statewide, top 67%, 1,934 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools at 72% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 774 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($368k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $346,227 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.63%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $413,572
• List price: $404,000
• Delta: -2.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1984 Matt Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,333 (-3%)	4mo	$287,500	$216	80
1990 Calypso	0.09mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,333 (-3%)	10mo	$415,000	$311	76
1981 Matt Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,280 (-6%)	10mo	$419,900	$328	70
1781 S Croaker Ln W	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (+1%)	4mo	$420,000	$304	68
1989 Matt Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-12%)	4mo	$249,000	$208	65
938 Eastview	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (+13%)	2mo	$675,000	$436	60
1855 Pompano Ln	0.39mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,457 (+6%)	10mo	$495,000	$340	53
2029 Idyle Vw	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,540 (+13%)	3mo	$419,000	$272	53
2281 E Lobster	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,332 (-3%)	12mo	$450,000	$338	52
888 Bowers Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,462 (+7%)	9mo	$469,000	$321	50
2209 Shrimp	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,408 (+3%)	12mo	$424,900	$302	50
2288 E Crab St	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,489 (+9%)	13mo	$438,000	$294	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-55,756
• Equity at exit: $60,238

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-36,263
• Equity at exit: $34,931

Cash invested: $113,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77650

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 774
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,462 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,119
• Tax from tax record: −$278 /mo · $3,331/yr
• Insurance: −$168
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$727
• Net cashflow: $154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,268

Max offer price $404,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $382	-5% $268	+0% $154	+5% $39	+10% $-75
Rent	-10% $-120	-5% $17	+0% $154	+5% $290	+10% $427
Rate	-1.0pp $357	-0.5pp $256	base $154	+0.5pp $49	+1.0pp $-58

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,000
• Closing costs: $12,120
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
951 Gulf Shores Dr Unit 1223252P Crystal Beach, TX	3.0–6.0	2.0–5.0	2362	$4,860	$2.06	0d	2	0.05mi
943 Gulf Shores Dr Unit 1223244P Port Bolivar, TX	3.0	3.0	1517	$3,037	$2.00	0d	1	0.06mi
1973 Avenue H Unit 1223251P Crystal Beach, TX	3.0	2.0	1571	$3,001	$1.91	0d	1	0.09mi
820 Sandollar Unit 1351282P Crystal Beach, TX	3.0	2.0	1539	$3,077	$2.00	0d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $404,000 Pending 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $404,000 Pending 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $404,000 Pending 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $404,000 Pending 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $404,000 Pending 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $404,000 Pending 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $404,000 Pending 101 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $404,000 Active 100 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $404,000 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $404,000 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-02-22
    listed $445,000 Active 669-char remark

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    Recently built beach home offering a great 4-bedroom floor plan with 2 full baths, designed to maximize comfort and functionality. The open living, dining, and kitchen areas create an inviting space for gathering and entertaining, while the well-sized bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or rental use. Located in Crystal Beach, this home supports a relaxed coastal lifestyle and is suitable as a primary residence, second home, or short-term rental property. Thoughtful design elements and quality craftsmanship by Prestige Custom Built contribute to long-term value and everyday livability, making this an attractive opportunity on the Bolivar Peninsula.

12. 2025-03-11
    historical
13. 2024-09-12
    listed $499,000 Active
14. 2024-08-29
    historical
15. 2024-04-30
    price $509,999
16. 2024-02-29
    listed $530,000 Active
17. 2024-02-27
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,331 · $278/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,393 · $616/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,062/yr (+$339/mo · 121.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,547
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,630
• − Property taxes: −$3,331
• − Insurance: −$2,020
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,324
• − Management: −$3,324
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$11,753
• Taxable loss: −$5,038
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,209
• After-tax cash flow: $3,053/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galveston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820280
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,162
• Composite: 30.22/100
• National rank: #6299
• State rank: #514 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bolivar Peninsula

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #13437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bolivar Peninsula, TX
• City population: 2,957
• Population (ZIP): 2,362

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.52%
• Current HPI: 231.5074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-22 Listed $445,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-12 Listed $499,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-04-30 Price Changed $509,999 HARMLS
• 2024-02-29 Listed $530,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-27 Coming Soon — HARMLS

Property tax history

+128.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,331 · +68.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.