9431 Summer River Dr · Houston, TX 77406

$339,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,256 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 2018 6,259 sqft lot $150/sqft · 7% below area Est $363k · 7% under $78/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 6,259 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease considered: No
• HOA & community: Homeowners association (VanMor) with annual fee of $936

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2018; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (large); Additional bedrooms on second floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite counters; Game room; Dining room; Living room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $339k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-253 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $306k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $294k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Joe Hubenak El (math 57% / reading 61%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 1,214 students, 37% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1238 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $294,289 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.20%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $363,251
• List price: $339,000
• Delta: -6.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9410 Greensbend Dr	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,246 (-0%)	2mo	$365,000	$163	93
9426 Alpine Cove Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	2,286 (+1%)	9mo	$395,000	$173	85
26311 Cloverbank Ln	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,368 (+5%)	2mo	$400,000	$169	82
26110 Lazywaters Dr	0.07mi	4/3.5	2,509 (+11%)	0mo	$415,000	$165	76
9414 Summer River Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,078 (-8%)	3mo	$349,500	$168	73
9422 Alpine Cove Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,006 (-11%)	4mo	$339,000	$169	67
9630 Dancing Grass Dr	0.18mi	4/3.5	2,511 (+11%)	7mo	$450,000	$179	65
9847 Copper Ranch Trl	0.42mi	4/2.5	2,359 (+5%)	11mo	$345,000	$146	62
9726 Dancing Grass Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,990 (-12%)	7mo	$400,000	$201	54
342 Shining Succulent Dr	0.74mi	4/3.5	2,392 (+6%)	6mo	$399,900	$167	48
26030 Drover Sky Ct	0.53mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,926 (-15%)	9mo	$320,000	$166	36
8623 Gleaming Village Way	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,988 (-12%)	11mo	$449,772	$226	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-79,766
• Equity at exit: $50,546

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-123,843
• Equity at exit: $29,311

Cash invested: $94,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77406

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1238
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,057 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax from tax record: −$671 /mo · $8,057/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$78
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$642
• Net cashflow: $-253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,378

Max offer price $294,289

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-61	-5% $-157	+0% $-253	+5% $-349	+10% $-445
Rent	-10% $-495	-5% $-374	+0% $-253	+5% $-132	+10% $-12
Rate	-1.0pp $-82	-0.5pp $-167	base $-253	+0.5pp $-341	+1.0pp $-430

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,750
• Closing costs: $10,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10503 Shinning Dawn Way Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	2523	$3,399	$1.35	45d	1	0.99mi
26407 Polaris Rise Ln Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	3260	$3,750	$1.15	45d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $78 · $936/yr

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $339,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $339,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $339,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $339,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $339,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,000 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-05-09
    listed $339,000 Active
16. 2026-05-06
    historical
17. 2026-03-11
    listed $339,000 Active
18. 2026-03-09
    historical $2,500
19. 2026-02-19
    listed $2,500
20. 2026-02-17
    historical $2,500
21. 2025-12-11
    listed $2,500
22. 2025-12-10
    historical
23. 2025-10-26
    price $345,000
24. 2025-09-18
    listed $365,000 Active
25. 2025-01-06
    historical $2,400
26. 2025-01-05
    historical
27. 2024-11-25
    price $2,400
28. 2024-11-03
    listed $2,600
29. 2024-09-21
    price $368,000
30. 2024-08-30
    listed $373,000 Active
31. 2024-08-16
    historical
32. 2024-06-14
    listed $360,000 Active
33. 2024-06-13
    historical
34. 2024-05-09
    listed $382,000 Active
35. 2024-05-07
    historical
36. 2024-05-03
    price $392,000
37. 2024-03-22
    listed $405,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,057 · $671/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,057 · $671/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,689
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,989
• − Property taxes: −$8,057
• − Insurance: −$1,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,935
• − Management: −$2,935
• − HOA: −$936
• − Depreciation: −$9,862
• Taxable loss: −$8,721
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,093
• After-tax cash flow: $-944/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,918
• Household income: $141,869
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 575.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 14% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.18%
• Current HPI: 222.9525
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.5% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listed $339,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $339,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Rental Removed $2,500 HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed for Rent $2,500 HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Rental Removed $2,500 HARMLS
• 2025-12-11 Listed for Rent $2,500 HARMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-26 Price Changed $345,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-18 Listed $365,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-06 Rental Removed $2,400 HARMLS
• 2025-01-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-11-25 Price Changed $2,400 HARMLS
• 2024-11-03 Listed for Rent $2,600 HARMLS
• 2024-09-21 Price Changed $368,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-30 Listed $373,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-06-14 Listed $360,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-05-09 Listed $382,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-05-03 Price Changed $392,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-22 Listed $405,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+76.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,057 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.