201 Union Ave SE #154 · Renton, WA 98059

$80,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 178 Days on market

Built 1979 $83/sqft · 33% below area Est $120k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated 2 bedroom home featuring 1 full bath and a . 75 bath across 960 sq ft in the sought-after 55+ Leisure Estates community. Tucked on a quiet dead-end street with serene greenbelt views, this home offers newer double-pane windows, plush carpet, and a bright, comfortable layout. Enjoy in-unit laundry, a 2-car side-by-side carport, and close proximity to shopping, dining, and 405. A peaceful, well-kept retreat in the Renton Highlands.

Key facts

• In-unit laundry
• Updated home
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• SERENE GREENBELT VIEWS
• IN-UNIT LAUNDRY
• 2-CAR SIDE-BY-SIDE CARPORT
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO DINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.2% vs local median 2.3% in Renton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#52 in WA, #949 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime D-, cost of living F.
• Renton School District (urban): math 47% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #119 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 255 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,555 units permitted in King County in 2024 (7,119 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• King County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $80k implies a 86% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 71.23%
• DSCR: 4.17
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $120,000
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: -33.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
201 Union Ave SE #43	0.22mi	2/1.5	960 (0%)	1mo	$105,000	$109	87
201 union Ave SE #46	0.22mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	4mo	$120,000	$125	86
375 Union Ave SE #46	0.10mi	2/2.0	924 (-4%)	4mo	$120,000	$130	86
375 Union Ave SE #60	0.10mi	2/2.0	924 (-4%)	16mo	$149,000	$161	75
375 Union Ave SE #31	0.20mi	2/2.0	924 (-4%)	22mo	$75,000	$81	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.92×
• Total profit: $65,430
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 71.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.32×
• Total profit: $141,575
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98059

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 255
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,383 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $1,330

Break-even live

Break-even rent $700

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,385	-5% $1,357	+0% $1,330	+5% $1,302	+10% $1,274
Rent	-10% $1,141	-5% $1,235	+0% $1,330	+5% $1,424	+10% $1,518
Rate	-1.0pp $1,370	-0.5pp $1,350	base $1,330	+0.5pp $1,309	+1.0pp $1,288

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4214 SE 1st Pl Renton, WA	3.0	1.0	950	$2,950	$3.11	25d	1	0.17mi
3815 NE 4th St Renton, WA	2.0	1.0	666	$1,999	$3.00	0d	23	0.49mi
3788 NE 4th St Renton, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	701	$1,934	$2.76	0d	7	0.67mi
4231 NE 5th St Unit D203 Renton, WA	2.0	2.0	1025	$2,200	$2.15	11d	1	0.67mi
4319 NE 5th Ct #106 Renton, WA	2.0	2.0	1090	$2,250	$2.06	0d	1	0.75mi
4415 NE 5th St Renton, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	923	$2,357	$2.55	0d	10	0.76mi
4310 NE 5th Ct #104 Renton, WA	1.0	1.0	920	$2,150	$2.34	0d	1	0.77mi
2904 SE 8th St #2128 Renton, WA	2.0	2.0	1046	$2,350	$2.25	0d	1	0.92mi
650 Duvall Ave NE Renton, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1020	$2,454	$2.40	0d	13	0.92mi
15205 140th Way SE Renton, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1121	$2,918	$2.60	0d	10	0.97mi
2511 NE 4th St Renton, WA	2.0	1.5	1008	$1,900	$1.88	3d	1	1.10mi
3507 NE 8th St Renton, WA	3.0	1.0	960	$2,650	$2.76	18d	1	1.10mi
653 Index Pl NE Renton, WA	2.0	1.0	720	$2,395	$3.33	25d	1	1.12mi
2307 NE 4th St Renton, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	740	$2,257	$3.05	0d	11	1.14mi
802 Harrington Ave NE Renton, WA	2.0	1.0	828	$1,750	$2.11	3d	1	1.26mi
270 Bronson Way NE Unit The Hampton H22 Renton, WA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,250	$2.25	44d	1	1.34mi
330 Vuemont Pl NE Renton, WA	2.0	1.0	791	$1,962	$2.48	5d	7	1.37mi
950 Harrington Ave NE Renton, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	882	$2,854	$3.24	0d	9	1.40mi
351 Vuemont Pl NE Renton, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	755	$1,750	$2.32	13d	3	1.41mi
913 Harrington Ave NE Renton, WA	2.0	1.0	751	$1,895	$2.52	3d	3	1.43mi
913 Harrington Ave NE Unit 6 Renton, WA	2.0	1.0	770	$1,860	$2.42	12d	1	1.43mi
913 Harrington Ave NE Unit 1 Renton, WA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,710	$2.44	12d	1	1.43mi
913 Harrington Ave NE Apt 3 Renton, WA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,930	$2.41	12d	1	1.43mi
1013 Kirkland Ave NE Unit 3 Renton, WA	2.0	1.5	700	$1,750	$2.50	25d	1	1.44mi
906 Glennwood Ave NE Renton, WA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,595	$1.88	25d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $80,000 Active 178 DOM
2. 2026-04-09
   price $80,000
3. 2025-12-04
   listed $85,000 Active
4. 2019-07-15
   soldstatus $43,000 Sold
5. 2019-07-05
   status Pending
6. 2019-06-25
   historical Contingent
7. 2019-04-30
   status Active
8. 2019-04-27
   status Pending Inspection
9. 2019-02-14
   price $55,000
10. 2019-01-10
    listed $57,000 Active
11. 2017-02-10
    soldstatus $19,500 Sold
12. 2017-02-04
    status Pending
13. 2016-12-07
    price $28,500
14. 2016-11-19
    price $35,500
15. 2016-11-02
    price $32,500
16. 2016-10-08
    price $35,500
17. 2016-09-19
    listed $38,500 Active
18. 2016-04-29
    soldstatus $26,500 Sold
19. 2016-03-23
    status Pending
20. 2016-03-14
    status Pending Inspection
21. 2016-03-05
    price $28,500
22. 2016-02-02
    status Active
23. 2016-01-13
    status Pending Inspection
24. 2015-05-08
    listed $31,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,594
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,288
• − Management: −$2,288
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $15,611
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,747
• After-tax cash flow: $12,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Renton School District
• NCES district ID: 5307230
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $66,354
• Composite: 47.13/100
• National rank: #5108
• State rank: #119 of 291 in WA

Livability — Renton

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #949

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Renton, WA
• County: King County · 2,251,916 people
• City population: 158,600
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 42,406
• Household income: $138,654
• Rent vs Own: 23.4% rent · 76.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 908.0

Population outlook (King County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,576,485 people
• By 2030: 2,803,316 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 3,255,921 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 3,706,444 · +43.9%
• By 2075: 4,746,063 · +84.2%
• By 2100: 5,407,730 · +109.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Asian 29% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 23% · China, Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Chinese 9% Vietnamese 6% Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · King

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.7) · D 74.2% · R 22.5% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 51.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.7 2020: D+52.7 2016: D+50.4 2012: D+39.9 2008: D+42.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -920.66%
• Current HPI: 338.4495
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.29%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+150.4% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $80,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-04 Listed $85,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-15 Sold (MLS) $43,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-05 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-25 Contingent — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-30 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-27 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-14 Price Changed $55,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-10 Listed $57,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-10 Sold (MLS) $19,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-04 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-07 Price Changed $28,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-19 Price Changed $35,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-02 Price Changed $32,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-08 Price Changed $35,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-19 Listed $38,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-29 Sold (MLS) $26,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-23 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-14 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-05 Price Changed $28,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-02 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-13 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-08 Listed $31,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid