8201 Cinnamon Ln · Port St. Lucie, FL 34952

$176,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 222 Days on market

Built 1987 7,197 sqft lot Est $128k · 38% over $313/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome Home to this charming Land OWNED 2/2 with 2020 roof, 2019 AC, large carport, large work shed and owner added 20 extra tie downs for peace of mind. Sitting high and dry on a corner lot with lovely enclosed porch overlooking a lake for enjoying sunrises, sunsets and soaking up the Florida lifestyle. Large Master bedroom, open plan and giant bonus room with view of the lake, this home does not disappoint. Enjoy an active resort lifestyle in Savannah Club which offers 18-hole Golf, Theater w/live entertainment, Tennis, Volleyball, Pickleball, Shuffleboard, Bocce, Horseshoes, Indoor Basketball, 3 Pools, 3 Gyms, 3 Fitness Centers, plus classes & clubs for every interest: ceramics, photography, table games & more. Life starts at 55, live like you're always on vacation!!

Key facts

• 2020 roof
• Bonus room
• Large carport

Tags

• 2020 ROOF
• LARGE CARPORT
• LARGE WORKSHOP
• CORNER WATERFRONT LOT
• ENCLOSED PATIO
• BONUS ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a senior community
• Financial info: Property is in a community that allows pets with no restrictions
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee (amenities include pool, fitness center, clubhouse, tennis, pickleball, golf course, spa/hot tub, sauna, shuffleboard, basketball, billiards, business center, cafe/restaurant, community room, library, internet included, street lights); Association fee paid monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Three phase electric; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home (resale); Single-story; Faces east
• Construction: Modular construction
• Exterior features: Waterfront property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: No notable built-in interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $176k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-234/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (1.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $176k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.9% in Port St. Lucie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manatee Academy K-8 (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 1,664 students, 65% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Fort Pierce Central High School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 3,091 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 645 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 222 days — a 12% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 222 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.47%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $127,680
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2948 Fiddlewood Cir	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,280 (-5%)	1mo	$122,000	$95	79
192 W Caribbean	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,416 (+5%)	6mo	$49,000	$35	77
110 W Caribbean	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,416 (+5%)	5mo	$77,500	$55	73
3033 Satinleaf Ln	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	4mo	$195,000	$156	67
3005 Approach Shot Way	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,333 (-1%)	3mo	$149,900	$112	66
7 Giralda	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-11%)	4mo	$21,000	$18	66
8526 Lidflower Ct	0.40mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,404 (+4%)	6mo	$70,900	$50	62
8394 Delphinium Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,392 (+4%)	4mo	$220,000	$158	59
10 Padre	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,280 (-5%)	4mo	$38,000	$30	58
3776 Satinwood Ct	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,284 (-4%)	11mo	$175,000	$136	49
3422 Feriwinkle Ct	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,184 (-12%)	4mo	$205,000	$173	48
3700 Westchester Ct	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,480 (+10%)	8mo	$130,000	$88	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-31,717
• Equity at exit: $26,317

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-36,737
• Equity at exit: $15,260

Cash invested: $49,420 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34952

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 645
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,982 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$926
• Tax from tax record: −$273 /mo · $3,274/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$313
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,006

Max offer price $173,060

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $80	-5% $30	+0% $-19	+5% $-69	+10% $-119
Rent	-10% $-176	-5% $-98	+0% $-19	+5% $59	+10% $137
Rate	-1.0pp $69	-0.5pp $25	base $-19	+0.5pp $-65	+1.0pp $-112

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,125
• Closing costs: $5,295
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1900 Bella Vista Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,764	$1.77	15d	15	0.41mi
71 W Caribbean Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1417	$1,700	$1.20	25d	1	0.49mi
1810 SE Pinewood Trl Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$2,055	$2.03	15d	7	0.69mi
3784 Sapodilla Ct Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1121	$2,300	$2.05	25d	1	0.73mi
1811 SE Walton Lakes Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$1,926	$1.72	15d	6	0.74mi
2082 SE Wild Meadow Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1524	$1,850	$1.21	25d	1	0.92mi
1131 SE Parrish Ct Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	1.0	902	$2,000	$2.22	25d	1	0.93mi
2058 SE Wild Meadow Cir #101 Port St Lucie, FL	2.0	2.5	1425	$2,200	$1.54	15d	1	0.94mi
2183 SE Wild Meadow Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1550	$1,900	$1.23	15d	1	0.99mi
2130 SE Wild Meadow Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1440	$1,695	$1.18	15d	1	1.01mi
1455 SE Colchester Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	921	$1,795	$1.95	15d	1	1.11mi
2209 SE East Dunbrooke Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$2,950	$2.43	15d	1	1.12mi
1516 SE Royal Green Cir #202 Port St Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	921	$2,100	$2.28	25d	1	1.21mi
1520 SE Royal Green Cir Unit K-203 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	886	$1,800	$2.03	25d	1	1.24mi
1537 SE Royal Green Cir Unit E204 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	886	$1,750	$1.98	15d	1	1.37mi
1500 SE Tiffany Club Pl Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,922	$2.15	15d	7	1.37mi
1618 SE Elkhart Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1176	$2,200	$1.87	25d	1	1.40mi
1548 SE Royal Green Cir Unit M-103 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	886	$1,800	$2.03	25d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $313 · $3,756/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $176,500 Active 222 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $176,500 Active 219 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $176,500 Active 218 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $176,500 Active 217 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $176,500 Active 216 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $176,500 Active 214 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $176,500 Active 213 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $176,500 Active 211 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $176,500 Active 210 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $176,500 Active 209 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $176,500 Active 208 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $176,500 Active 205 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $176,500 Active 204 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $176,500 Active 203 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $176,500 Active 202 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $176,500 Active 201 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $176,500 Active 200 DOM
18. 2026-02-11
    price $176,500
19. 2025-11-10
    listed $190,000 Active
20. 2025-09-11
    historical
21. 2025-08-03
    price $198,000
22. 2025-02-26
    listed $215,000 Active
23. 2023-12-23
    historical $2,000
24. 2023-12-01
    listed $2,000
25. 2023-09-08
    soldstatus $210,000 Closed 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Welcome Home to this charming Land OWNED 2/2 with 2020 roof, 2019 AC, large carport, large work shed and owner added 20 extra tie downs for peace of mind. Sitting high and dry on a corner lot with lovely enclosed porch overlooking a lake for enjoying sunrises, sunsets and soaking up the Florida lifestyle. Large Master bedroom, open plan and giant bonus room with view of the lake, this home does not disappoint. Enjoy an active resort lifestyle in Savannah Club which offers 18-hole Golf, Theater w/live entertainment, Tennis, Volleyball, Pickleball, Shuffleboard, Bocce, Horseshoes, Indoor Basketball, 3 Pools, 3 Gyms, 3 Fitness Centers, plus classes & clubs for every interest: ceramics, photography, table games & more. Life starts at 55, live like you're always on vacation!!

26. 2023-07-04
    historical Active Under Contract 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Welcome Home to this charming Land OWNED 2/2 with 2020 roof, 2019 AC, large carport, large work shed and owner added 20 extra tie downs for peace of mind. Sitting high and dry on a corner lot with lovely enclosed porch overlooking a lake for enjoying sunrises, sunsets and soaking up the Florida lifestyle. Large Master bedroom, open plan and giant bonus room with view of the lake, this home does not disappoint. Enjoy an active resort lifestyle in Savannah Club which offers 18-hole Golf, Theater w/live entertainment, Tennis, Volleyball, Pickleball, Shuffleboard, Bocce, Horseshoes, Indoor Basketball, 3 Pools, 3 Gyms, 3 Fitness Centers, plus classes & clubs for every interest: ceramics, photography, table games & more. Life starts at 55, live like you're always on vacation!!

27. 2023-06-30
    listed $224,900 Active 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Welcome Home to this charming Land OWNED 2/2 with 2020 roof, 2019 AC, large carport, large work shed and owner added 20 extra tie downs for peace of mind. Sitting high and dry on a corner lot with lovely enclosed porch overlooking a lake for enjoying sunrises, sunsets and soaking up the Florida lifestyle. Large Master bedroom, open plan and giant bonus room with view of the lake, this home does not disappoint. Enjoy an active resort lifestyle in Savannah Club which offers 18-hole Golf, Theater w/live entertainment, Tennis, Volleyball, Pickleball, Shuffleboard, Bocce, Horseshoes, Indoor Basketball, 3 Pools, 3 Gyms, 3 Fitness Centers, plus classes & clubs for every interest: ceramics, photography, table games & more. Life starts at 55, live like you're always on vacation!!

28. 2020-05-13
    soldstatus $130,000
29. 2020-04-30
    soldstatus $130,000 Closed
30. 2020-04-22
    status Pending
31. 2020-03-21
    listed $139,900 Active
32. 1998-03-19
    soldstatus $64,000
33. 1987-09-01
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,274 · $273/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,274 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,780
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,887
• − Property taxes: −$3,274
• − Insurance: −$882
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,902
• − Management: −$1,902
• − HOA: −$3,756
• − Depreciation: −$5,135
• Taxable loss: −$2,959
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$710
• After-tax cash flow: $476/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port St. Lucie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 221,051
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,655
• Household income: $61,628
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1759.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.80%
• Current HPI: 371.0573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1076.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $176,500 Beaches MLS
• 2025-11-10 Listed $190,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-09-11 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $198,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-02-26 Listed $215,000 Beaches MLS
• 2023-12-23 Rental Removed $2,000 RMLSFL
• 2023-12-01 Listed for Rent $2,000 RMLSFL
• 2023-09-08 Sold (MLS) $210,000 Beaches MLS
• 2023-07-04 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2023-06-30 Listed $224,900 Beaches MLS
• 2020-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2020-04-30 Sold (MLS) $130,000 Beaches MLS
• 2020-04-22 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2020-03-21 Listed $139,900 Beaches MLS
• 1998-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 1987-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,274 · -3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.