199 Maben Hill Ln · Barboursville, VA 22923

$388,089

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,760 sqft · SingleFamily · 59 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2-car garage $221/sqft · 6% below area Est $411k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Meet the Nichols at Essence at Creekside Single Family Homes, an ideal retreat for active households near outdoor recreation and commuter access. . This Nichols delivers 1,760 square feet across two floors, with four bedrooms, two full baths, a powder room, and a two-car garage. The main level opens into a spacious living room that flows back to the kitchen, where a center island gives you room to prep, serve, and gather all at once. A patio off the rear extends the living space outside. Upstairs, four bedrooms share the level with a convenient laundry room, and the primary suite includes a walk-in closet and a dual-vanity bath.

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Trail network
• Clubhouse

Tags

• POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• PLAYGROUND
• TRAIL NETWORK
• OUTDOOR RECREATION
• HIGHWAY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $388k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-405 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $329k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $288k (25.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $288k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Greene County Public School District (town): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #88 of 131 in VA (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ruckersville Elementary (math 54% / reading 62%, grade C+, #583 of 1,108 statewide, top 53%, 506 students, 68% FRL); William Monroe Middle (math 36% / reading 65%, grade C, #226 of 342 statewide, top 67%, 675 students, 67% FRL); William Monroe High (math 40% / reading 78%, grade C+, #256 of 319 statewide, top 81%, 957 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 32% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 239 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 204 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $288,213 (25.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.47%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $411,164
• List price: $388,089
• Delta: -5.61%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
181 Trailfork Rd	0.01mi	4/2.5	1,760 (0%)	4mo	$402,990	$229	96
147 Maben Hill Ln Lot 10	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,725 (-2%)	0mo	$409,990	$238	88
225 Trailfork Rd	0.23mi	4/2.5	1,760 (0%)	2mo	$407,490	$232	88
157 Trailfork Rd	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,725 (-2%)	5mo	$389,990	$226	84
375 White Sands Blvd	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,723 (-2%)	4mo	$486,755	$283	81
260 Trailfork Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,725 (-2%)	3mo	$459,990	$267	77
171 Arches Ln	0.16mi	4/2.5	1,903 (+8%)	6mo	$430,000	$226	74
145 Trailfork Rd	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,554 (-12%)	6mo	$372,390	$240	67
85 Magnolia Ct	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,864 (+6%)	2mo	$400,000	$215	65
193 Trailfork Rd Lot 76	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,554 (-12%)	2mo	$373,389	$240	60
75 Lumber Ln	0.62mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,692 (-4%)	4mo	$353,000	$209	52
87 Everglades Rd	0.73mi	4/2.5	1,903 (+8%)	6mo	$438,055	$230	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-88,645
• Equity at exit: $57,865

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-110,238
• Equity at exit: $33,555

Cash invested: $108,665 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 36 active · 40 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.7 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $396,995 ($250/sqft)
• Median days on market: 29 d
• This list price: 39% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -6.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 22923

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 239
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,882 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,035
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$485 /mo · $5,821/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$605
• Net cashflow: $-405

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,395

Max offer price $329,468

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-137	-5% $-271	+0% $-405	+5% $-539	+10% $-673
Rent	-10% $-633	-5% $-519	+0% $-405	+5% $-291	+10% $-177
Rate	-1.0pp $-210	-0.5pp $-306	base $-405	+0.5pp $-506	+1.0pp $-608

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,022
• Closing costs: $11,643
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
59 Grayson Village DR Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.5	1470	$2,100	$1.43	0d	1	0.03mi
50 Grayson Village DR Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.5	1470	$2,095	$1.43	0d	1	0.14mi
54 Mannie Ct Barboursville, VA	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,600	$1.55	62d	1	0.66mi
92 Everglades RD Barboursville, VA	4.0	2.5	1903	$2,795	$1.47	62d	1	0.75mi
32 Estes Ct Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,600	$1.86	62d	1	1.13mi
95 Terrace Greene Cir Barboursville, VA	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.5	1464	$2,950	$2.01	0d	12	1.22mi
144 Lake Saponi Dr #7 Barboursville, VA	3.0	1.5	1260	$2,000	$1.59	22d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listed as active; list price provided (agent/ buyer to verify details)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family residence (The Nichols)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1760 (interior size provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec home (The Nichols plan)

Listing history 48 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $388,089 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $388,089 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $388,089 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $388,089 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $388,089 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $388,089 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $388,089 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $388,089 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $388,089 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $388,089 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $388,089 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $388,089 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $388,089 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $388,089 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $388,089 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $388,089 Active 38 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $388,089 Active 36 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    pricedays on market $388,089 Active 35 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $398,089 Active 34 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $398,089 Active 33 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $398,089 Active 32 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $398,089 Active 31 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $398,089 Active 30 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $398,089 Active 29 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $398,089 Active 28 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $398,089 Active 27 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $398,089 Active 26 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $398,089 Active 25 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $398,089 Active 24 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $398,089 Active 23 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $398,089 Active 22 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $398,089 Active 21 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $398,089 Active 20 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $398,089 Active 19 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $398,089 Active 18 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $398,089 Active 17 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $398,089 Active 16 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $398,089 Active 14 DOM
39. 2026-06-23
    days on market $398,089 Active 12 DOM
40. 2026-06-22
    days on market $398,089 Active 11 DOM
41. 2026-06-19
    days on market $398,089 Active 9 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $398,089 Active 8 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $398,089 Active 7 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $398,089 Active 6 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $398,089 Active 5 DOM
46. 2026-06-14
    days on market $398,089 Active 3 DOM
47. 2026-06-13
    remarks 699-char remark
48. 2026-06-13
    listed $398,089 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,586
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,739
• − Property taxes: −$5,821
• − Insurance: −$1,940
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,767
• − Management: −$2,767
• − Depreciation: −$11,290
• Taxable loss: −$11,739
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,817
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,044/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and has the potential to be further enhanced with some exterior painting and landscaping to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both Adding a small garden or flower bed — Enhances curb appeal and adds aesthetic value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ruckersville Elementary C+ VA #583/1,108 Nat'l #8,292/41,679 Middle William Monroe Middle C VA #226/342 Nat'l #3,367/14,009 High William Monroe High C+ VA #256/319 Nat'l #3,898/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101710
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,129
• Composite: 45.22/100
• National rank: #2668
• State rank: #88 of 131 in VA

Livability — Barboursville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 20,465 people
• City population: 6,435
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 6,435
• Household income: $118,125
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own

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Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,465 people
• By 2030: 20,958 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 21,619 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 21,699 · +6.0%
• By 2075: 21,656 · +5.8%
• By 2100: 20,156 · -1.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.0% · R 61.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -21.9pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.41%
• Current HPI: 303.0348
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listed as active; list price provided (agent/ buyer to verify details)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family residence (The Nichols)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1760 (interior size provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec home (The Nichols plan)