4730 16th Street Dr NE · St. Stephens, NC 28601

$230,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,196 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1970 1.80 ac lot Est $210k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• ARV discount +3.3/15.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bedroom 2 bath Oasis in the heart of Hickory. Unfinished basement that gives the potential to DOUBLE the square footage.

Key facts

• 1.8 acre lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 14 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: House
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,196
• Exterior features: Lot of approximately 1.80 acres

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($452/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.3% in St. Stephens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Catawba County Schools (rural): math 54% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #54 of 178 in NC (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 423 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,016 units permitted in Catawba County in 2024 (255 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Catawba County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,290 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.70%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,496
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4647 16th Street Dr NE	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,226 (+2%)	2mo	$260,000	$212	75
2550 Snow Creek Rd NE	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,206 (+1%)	9mo	$249,900	$207	61
4012 24th Street Pl NE	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,105 (-8%)	4mo	$195,000	$176	50
2330 40th Avenue Ct NE	0.71mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,110 (-7%)	4mo	$120,000	$108	46
4011 25th St NE	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,229 (+3%)	19mo	$205,000	$167	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.91% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-33,318
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-19,417
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28601

• Home prices YoY: -27.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 423
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,793 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $921/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,745

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1517 39th Avenue Loop NE Unit 7 Hickory, NC	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,775	$1.18	15d	1	1.27mi
1532 39th Avenue Loop NE #5 Hickory, NC	3.0	2.5	1442	$1,825	$1.27	5d	1	1.30mi
1525 39th Avenue Loop NE #4 Hickory, NC	3.0	2.5	1442	$1,750	$1.21	24d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $230,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    remarks 122-char remark
11. 2026-06-04
    listed $230,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $921 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,886 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: +$965/yr (+$80/mo · 104.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,515
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$921
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,721
• − Management: −$1,721
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$3,573
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$858
• After-tax cash flow: $1,309/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Catawba County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700690
• Math proficiency: 54% ▲ 9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,180
• Composite: 44.71/100
• National rank: #2754
• State rank: #54 of 178 in NC

Livability — St. Stephens

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Stephens, NC
• County: Catawba County · 105,763 people
• Metro: Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC
• Population (ZIP): 53,329
• Household income: $67,817
• Rent vs Own: 31.6% rent · 68.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1276.0

Population outlook (Catawba County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 156,513 people
• By 2030: 155,267 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 151,110 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 145,524 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 134,047 · -14.4%
• By 2100: 119,424 · -23.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Catawba

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 30.6% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.0pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+37.0 2016: R+38.0 2012: R+29.6 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.98%
• Current HPI: 241.0743
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.91%
• Metro: Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+7.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $230,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-07-27 Price Changed $227,999 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-07 Price Changed $239,999 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-18 Listed $249,900 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $921 · +102.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.