39 James St · Tonawanda, NY 14150

$98,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,662 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1920 5,280 sqft lot $60/sqft · 66% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Huge POTENTIAL, Spacious 4-bedroom 1.5 Bath Colonial, Living Room, Formal Dining Room, Kitchen, Large eating area, Heated sunroom, Family room with wood stove (NWTC), French door to covered patio, 1st floor bedroom with sliders to deck, 3 zone hot water heat, newer roof total tear off , covered front porch, SOLD "AS IS" (survey show 1848sq ft)

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Heated sunroom
• Covered patio

Tags

• HEATED SUNROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• 3 ZONE HOT WATER HEAT
• NEWER ROOF TOTAL TEAR OFF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Cable available; Public water connected; Sewer connected; Circuit breakers (electric)
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Copper plumbing; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Existing construction (year built details not specified)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in country kitchen; Gas water heater; See remarks for additional appliances
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Zoned heating; Baseboard heating; Hot water heating; Zoned cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast area; Ceiling fan(s); Cathedral ceilings; Eat-in kitchen; Country kitchen; Bedroom on main level; Full and partial basement with sump pump; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer info not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $533 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#8 in NY, #169 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #508 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.8% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $98,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.10%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $325,806
• List price: $98,900
• Delta: -69.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 Nicholas Dr N	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,736 (+4%)	17mo	$220,000	$127	42
58 Nicholas Dr N	0.50mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,434 (-14%)	14mo	$300,000	$209	37
23 Nicholas Ct	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,458 (-12%)	24mo	$282,000	$193	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $24,650
• Equity at exit: $14,746

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.43×
• Total profit: $94,950
• Equity at exit: $8,551

Cash invested: $27,692 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,692 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$243 /mo · $2,921/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $533

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,017

Max offer price $98,900

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $589	-5% $561	+0% $533	+5% $505	+10% $477
Rent	-10% $399	-5% $466	+0% $533	+5% $600	+10% $667
Rate	-1.0pp $583	-0.5pp $558	base $533	+0.5pp $507	+1.0pp $481

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,725
• Closing costs: $2,967
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
115 Klinger Ave Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	4d	1	0.31mi
53 Winkler Dr Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1060	$2,100	$1.98	12d	1	0.60mi
86 Scott St Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	1584	$1,450	$0.92	2d	1	0.85mi
1835 Military Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1064	$2,175	$2.04	17d	1	1.30mi
184 Sweeney St North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	2.0	1155	$2,000	$1.73	2d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 357-char remark
2. 2026-05-03
   price $98,900 357-char remark
3. 2026-05-03
   listed $89,900 Active 357-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,921 · $243/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,921 · $243/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,299
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,540
• − Property taxes: −$2,921
• − Insurance: −$494
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,624
• − Management: −$1,624
• − Depreciation: −$2,877
• Taxable income: $5,219
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,253
• After-tax cash flow: $5,145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628740
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,061
• Composite: 35.03/100
• National rank: #5041
• State rank: #508 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #169

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 41,260
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+10.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $98,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-05-03 Listed $89,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,921 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.