The Glacier (N304) Plan · Plum Grove, TX 77336

$199,540

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,405 sqft · SingleFamily · 193 Days on market

Fair condition ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unwind after a long day in the Glacier's relaxing primary suite, complete with a spa-like primary bathroom. Purpose the flex space located just off the foyer into a useful office or convenient third bedroom.

Key facts

• Flex space
• Useful office
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• SPA-LIKE PRIMARY BATHROOM
• FLEX SPACE
• USEFUL OFFICE
• CONVENIENT THIRD BEDROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $199,540 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $226,590.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($344/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 585 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 193 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $175,595 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 193 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.54%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $226,590
• List price: $199,540
• Delta: -11.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31027 Perdido Valley Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,405 (0%)	3mo	$209,540	$149	90
31032 Perdido Valley Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,405 (0%)	3mo	$209,540	$149	89
31029 Perdido Valley Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,426 (+2%)	3mo	$209,590	$147	88
31024 Perdido Valley Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,426 (+2%)	3mo	$204,940	$144	86
1242 Minorca St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,283 (-9%)	1mo	$210,990	$164	75
31031 Perdido Valley Ln	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,557 (+11%)	1mo	$224,040	$144	69
1216 Peter Pine St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,606 (+14%)	5mo	$259,000	$161	58
7 Magnolia Ln	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,570 (+12%)	13mo	$299,000	$190	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-34,861
• Equity at exit: $33,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-27,882
• Equity at exit: $19,591

Cash invested: $63,445 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77336

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 585
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,018 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,188
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$283 /mo · $3,399/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,982

Max offer price $226,590

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,648
• Closing costs: $6,798
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
934 Pertuso Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,800	$1.32	24d	1	0.85mi
31416 Pratola Serra Cir Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,675	$1.15	2d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,540 Active 193 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $199,540 Active 192 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $201,540 Active 192 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $201,540 Active 191 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $201,540 Active 190 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $201,540 Active 188 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $201,540 Active 184 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $201,540 Active 183 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $201,540 Active 182 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $201,540 Active 179 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $201,540 Active 178 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,540 Active 177 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,540 Active 176 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,540 Active 175 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    price $202,540 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Unwind after a long day in the Glacier's relaxing primary suite, complete with a spa-like primary bathroom. Purpose the flex space located just off the foyer into a useful office or convenient third bedroom.

16. 2026-02-12
    price $199,540 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Unwind after a long day in the Glacier's relaxing primary suite, complete with a spa-like primary bathroom. Purpose the flex space located just off the foyer into a useful office or convenient third bedroom.

17. 2026-02-06
    price $218,540 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Unwind after a long day in the Glacier's relaxing primary suite, complete with a spa-like primary bathroom. Purpose the flex space located just off the foyer into a useful office or convenient third bedroom.

18. 2025-12-07
    listed $209,540 Active 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Unwind after a long day in the Glacier's relaxing primary suite, complete with a spa-like primary bathroom. Purpose the flex space located just off the foyer into a useful office or convenient third bedroom.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,221
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,693
• − Property taxes: −$3,399
• − Insurance: −$1,133
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,938
• − Management: −$1,938
• − Depreciation: −$6,592
• Taxable loss: −$3,470
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$833
• After-tax cash flow: $1,177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires significant updates to the kitchen and bathrooms, but the rest of the property appears to be in good condition. Potential buyers and renters would benefit from fresh paint, updated appliances, and landscaping improvements.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen — No photos provided.
• Major bathrooms — No photos provided.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and updating kitchen and bathrooms — Fresh paint and updated fixtures would enhance the home's appeal and functionality.
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances would improve the kitchen's functionality and attract more buyers/renters.
• Both Updating bathroom fixtures and tiles — Fresh, updated bathrooms would significantly improve the home's appeal and functionality.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained yard and landscaping would enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen · No photos provided.	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · No photos provided.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and updating kitchen and bathrooms — Fresh paint and updated fixtures would enhance the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances would improve the kitchen's functionality and attract more buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Updating bathroom fixtures and tiles — Fresh, updated bathrooms would significantly improve the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained yard and landscaping would enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,342
• Household income: $96,404
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 377.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.59%
• Current HPI: 472.03
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $202,540 Zillow
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $199,540 Zillow
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $218,540 Zillow
• 2025-12-07 Listed $209,540 Zillow