1540 N Mercury St · China Lake Acres, CA 93555

$95,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1981 2.50 ac lot $90/sqft · 9% above area Est $87k · 9% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss out on the opportunity to own a cute place (2 bedroom 2 bath + bonus room) on acreage with fantastic views of the sierras for a super price!! You will appreciate all the outdoor space along with the large 2 car garage/workshop! Fully fenced 2.5 acres with plenty of room for horses, chickens, goats & pigs if you'd like. Plenty of water as this one also has its own well. Bring the motorcycles and all the toys too, lots of desert riding just out from the property. Seller would like to sell "as-is" however come see this home as soon as you're able to find out what it has to offer you and your family!

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• Water well
• Horse property

Tags

• FULLY FENCED
• WATER WELL
• EVAPORATIVE COOLER
• HORSE PROPERTY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R-1; Horses allowed

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Propane; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home (double-wide); Residential property; Bank owned / Fixer-upper / Resale / REO
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof; Permanent foundation; Built as a manufactured (MFG 433a affixed) home
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Fenced yard; Shed(s); RV/Boat storage; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating; Propane heating; Wood heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Range, Oven, Refrigerator, Gas water heater; Crawl space
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $397 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#642 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+; Watch: commute D, schools F, amenities F.
• Sierra Sands Unified (town): math 25% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #294 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 328 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,575 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.54%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $87,401
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: 8.69%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1628 Saguaro St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,056 (0%)	13mo	$35,000	$33	55
5237 Nolina Ave	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+9%)	14mo	$75,000	$65	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $10,909
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $46,352
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93555

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 328
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,556 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,039/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $397

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,054

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $450	-5% $423	+0% $397	+5% $370	+10% $343
Rent	-10% $274	-5% $335	+0% $397	+5% $458	+10% $520
Rate	-1.0pp $444	-0.5pp $421	base $397	+0.5pp $372	+1.0pp $347

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1631 Chaparral Dr Unit PLACECHA1631 Ridgecrest, CA	2.0	2.0	1344	$1,400	$1.04	3d	1	0.64mi
6701 Mountain View Ave Unit 1 Inyokern, CA	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,250	$0.94	3d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-08
   listed $95,000 Active 726-char remark
2. 2023-03-22
   soldstatus $154,000
3. 2020-12-07
   soldstatus $119,900 631-char remark

   Show marketing remark (631 chars)

   Don't miss out on the opportunity to own a cute place (2 bedroom 2 bath + bonus room) on acreage with fantastic views of the sierras for a super price!! You will appreciate all the outdoor space along with the large 2 car garage/workshop! Fully fenced 2.5 acres with plenty of room for horses, chickens, goats & pigs if you'd like. Plenty of water as this one also has its own well. Bring the motorcycles and all the toys too, lots of desert riding just out from the property. Seller would like to sell "as-is" however come see this home as soon as you're able to find out what it has to offer you and your family!

4. 2020-12-07
   soldstatus $120,000

   Show marketing remark (631 chars)

   Don't miss out on the opportunity to own a cute place (2 bedroom 2 bath + bonus room) on acreage with fantastic views of the sierras for a super price!! You will appreciate all the outdoor space along with the large 2 car garage/workshop! Fully fenced 2.5 acres with plenty of room for horses, chickens, goats & pigs if you'd like. Plenty of water as this one also has its own well. Bring the motorcycles and all the toys too, lots of desert riding just out from the property. Seller would like to sell "as-is" however come see this home as soon as you're able to find out what it has to offer you and your family!

5. 2020-10-06
   listed $119,900 631-char remark

   Show marketing remark (631 chars)

   Don't miss out on the opportunity to own a cute place (2 bedroom 2 bath + bonus room) on acreage with fantastic views of the sierras for a super price!! You will appreciate all the outdoor space along with the large 2 car garage/workshop! Fully fenced 2.5 acres with plenty of room for horses, chickens, goats & pigs if you'd like. Plenty of water as this one also has its own well. Bring the motorcycles and all the toys too, lots of desert riding just out from the property. Seller would like to sell "as-is" however come see this home as soon as you're able to find out what it has to offer you and your family!

6. 2015-09-03
   soldstatus $90,000
7. 2004-08-27
   soldstatus $52,500
8. 2002-06-04
   soldstatus $37,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,039 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,039 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,675
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$2,039
• − Insurance: −$1,978
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,494
• − Management: −$1,494
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $3,586
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$861
• After-tax cash flow: $3,898/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Sands Unified
• NCES district ID: 0636800
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,937
• Composite: 28.66/100
• National rank: #6699
• State rank: #294 of 517 in CA

Livability — China Lake Acres

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #642
• US rank: #20115

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living C+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: China Lake Acres, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,845
• Household income: $86,700
• Rent vs Own: 37.5% rent · 62.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Black 4% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.17%
• Current HPI: 380.5208
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.58%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+156.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Pending — SSMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $95,000 SSMLS
• 2023-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $154,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-07 Sold (MLS) $119,900 SSMLS
• 2020-10-06 Listed $119,900 SSMLS
• 2015-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $52,500 Public Records
• 2002-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,039 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.