412 E Walker St · Ash Grove, MO 65604

$249,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,722 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1921 7,841 sqft lot Est $229k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• ARV discount +3.4/15.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great location. One block away from the school and the city park (with swimming pool). Located on one of the most charming streets in town (once referred to as silk stocking lane). Roughly 25-30 minute from Springfield makes it accessible, while taking advantage of the small town charm. Property could use some work and updating to get it back to its original charm. Home is being sold as is, but has had new hvac, electrical, and roof replaced in the last 10 years.

Key facts

• Original hardware
• Glass doorknobs
• Built-in cabinetry

Tags

• HISTORIC HOME
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• TRANSOM WINDOWS
• BUILT-IN CABINETRY
• ORIGINAL HARDWARE
• GLASS DOORKNOBS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking; Shared driveway
• Utilities: Public water and cistern; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential home; Two levels
• Construction: Stucco construction
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Partial chain link and privacy fencing; Corner lot; City street frontage on a public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Free-standing electric oven; Dishwasher; Exhaust fan
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Natural gas heating; Exhaust fan for ventilation; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Fireplace in the living room and an additional fireplace; Unfinished full basement with walk-up access
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $105 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.4% in Ash Grove — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#435 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ash Grove R-IV (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #121 of 324 in MO (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ash Grove Elem. (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #537 of 1,115 statewide, top 53%, 259 students, 47% FRL); Ash Grove High (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #291 of 521 statewide, top 60%, 329 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,172 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.80%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $229,026
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
412 E Walker St	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,722 (0%)	6mo	$125,000	$73	86
203 E Prairie Ln	0.25mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,742 (+1%)	6mo	$189,500	$109	71
103 N Maple Ln	0.08mi	2/3.0	1,977 (+15%)	6mo	$239,000	$121	59
300 S High Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,918 (+11%)	5mo	$199,900	$104	58
404 N Mcqueary Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,723 (+0%)	10mo	$239,900	$139	56
806 E Grant St	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,551 (-10%)	3mo	$235,000	$152	52
204 S Calhoun Ave	0.37mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,637 (-5%)	19mo	$217,700	$133	51
103 Northview Ter	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,724 (+0%)	11mo	$245,000	$142	48
802 E Prairie Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,840 (+7%)	19mo	$244,900	$133	46
106 W College St	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,549 (-10%)	12mo	$198,500	$128	39
200 W College St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,616 (-6%)	20mo	$299,900	$186	36
902 E Auburn Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,515 (-12%)	14mo	$249,900	$165	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-33,911
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-21,339
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65604

• Home prices YoY: -13.1%
• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,042 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,120/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,909

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $246	-5% $176	+0% $105	+5% $34	+10% $-36
Rent	-10% $-56	-5% $24	+0% $105	+5% $186	+10% $266
Rate	-1.0pp $231	-0.5pp $169	base $105	+0.5pp $40	+1.0pp $-26

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,900 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $249,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,120 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,424 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,304/yr (+$109/mo · 116.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,501
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$1,120
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,960
• − Management: −$1,960
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$3,057
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$734
• After-tax cash flow: $1,994/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ash Grove R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2903270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,679
• Composite: 35.45/100
• National rank: #4929
• State rank: #121 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ash Grove

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #435
• US rank: #17867

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ash Grove, MO
• Population (ZIP): 3,909

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.86%
• Current HPI: 231.5643
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+99.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $249,900 SOMO
• 2025-12-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-12-15 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2025-11-30 Pending — SOMO
• 2025-11-26 Listed $125,000 SOMO

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,120 · +12.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.