6480 Churchill Cir · Bagdad, FL 32583

$259,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,435 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 2019 5,793 sqft lot Est $251k · at est. $18/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 54% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

VA ASSUMABLE LOAN AT 2.625%! Welcome to this charming home in the heart of Milton that offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and convenience! This well-maintained property features a spacious layout with abundant natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere throughout. The home boasts a thoughtfully designed floor plan with generous living spaces, ideal for both relaxing and entertaining. The kitchen provides ample cabinetry and workspace, flowing seamlessly into the dining and living areas. Step outside to enjoy a large yard--perfect for gatherings, pets, or simply unwinding after a long day. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, dining, and just a short drive to local beaches and Pensacola, this home offers both tranquility and accessibility.

Key facts

• 5,793 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2019

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee (paid annually); Association fee covers association and management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; Front entrance parking; Two covered parking spaces (total 2 spaces)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service with circuit breakers and copper wiring
• Home design: One-story home; Resale property; Not attached to other properties; Shaded by gable roof
• Construction: Block and frame construction; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built with insulated walls and ridge vent
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Back yard fencing; Interior lot; Paved, publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Laminate counters; Pantry; Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 16' x 12'); Additional bedrooms on the first floor (two approx. 11' x 10')
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet; Simulated wood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Baseboards; Ceiling fan(s); Recessed lighting; Double pane windows; Blinds; Drapery rods
• Laundry & utility: Washer/Dryer hookups; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-999/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#571 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bagdad Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,144 statewide, top 67%, 498 students, 69% FRL); Hobbs Middle School (math 52% / reading 48%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 700 students, 63% FRL); Milton High School (math 44% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,085 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 36% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Santa Rosa average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 822 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,055 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.37%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $251,125
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6604 Woodbrook Ct	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,414 (-2%)	3mo	$275,000	$194	80
6513 Firefly Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,439 (+0%)	1mo	$259,900	$181	60
6501 Firefly Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,439 (+0%)	1mo	$250,000	$174	60
6465 Firefly Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,439 (+0%)	2mo	$249,900	$174	60
6485 Firefly Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,439 (+0%)	2mo	$249,900	$174	60
4106 Buford Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,287 (-10%)	1mo	$200,000	$155	59
6505 Firefly Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,439 (+0%)	2mo	$249,900	$174	59
4081 Audiss Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,577 (+10%)	2mo	$230,000	$146	57
6516 Firefly Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+9%)	1mo	$279,900	$179	50
6496 Firefly Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+9%)	2mo	$281,900	$180	49
6432 Firefly Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+9%)	2mo	$277,900	$177	49
6468 Firefly Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+9%)	3mo	$274,900	$175	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-44,262
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-31,998
• Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32583

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 822
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,041 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$206 /mo · $2,473/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$18
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,146

Max offer price $245,187

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $64	-5% $-10	+0% $-83	+5% $-157	+10% $-230
Rent	-10% $-244	-5% $-164	+0% $-83	+5% $-3	+10% $78
Rate	-1.0pp $48	-0.5pp $-17	base $-83	+0.5pp $-151	+1.0pp $-219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4170 Roosevelt Way Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1760	$1,850	$1.05	25d	1	0.14mi
6478 Da Lisa Rd Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,900	$1.70	25d	1	0.20mi
6607 Woodbury Forest Dr Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1680	$1,900	$1.13	25d	1	0.40mi
6317 Firefly Dr Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1439	$2,000	$1.39	23d	1	0.54mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $18 · $216/yr

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $259,900 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $259,900 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $265,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $265,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $265,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $265,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $265,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 31 DOM
18. 2026-05-14
    price $265,000

    Show marketing remark (785 chars)

    VA ASSUMABLE LOAN AT 2.625%! Welcome to this charming home in the heart of Milton that offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and convenience! This well-maintained property features a spacious layout with abundant natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere throughout. The home boasts a thoughtfully designed floor plan with generous living spaces, ideal for both relaxing and entertaining. The kitchen provides ample cabinetry and workspace, flowing seamlessly into the dining and living areas. Step outside to enjoy a large yard--perfect for gatherings, pets, or simply unwinding after a long day. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, dining, and just a short drive to local beaches and Pensacola, this home offers both tranquility and accessibility.

19. 2026-05-14
    price $265,000 785-char remark

    Show marketing remark (785 chars)

    VA ASSUMABLE LOAN AT 2.625%! Welcome to this charming home in the heart of Milton that offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and convenience! This well-maintained property features a spacious layout with abundant natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere throughout. The home boasts a thoughtfully designed floor plan with generous living spaces, ideal for both relaxing and entertaining. The kitchen provides ample cabinetry and workspace, flowing seamlessly into the dining and living areas. Step outside to enjoy a large yard--perfect for gatherings, pets, or simply unwinding after a long day. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, dining, and just a short drive to local beaches and Pensacola, this home offers both tranquility and accessibility.

20. 2026-04-29
    listed $275,000 Active
21. 2026-04-24
    listed $275,000 Active 785-char remark

    Show marketing remark (785 chars)

    VA ASSUMABLE LOAN AT 2.625%! Welcome to this charming home in the heart of Milton that offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and convenience! This well-maintained property features a spacious layout with abundant natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere throughout. The home boasts a thoughtfully designed floor plan with generous living spaces, ideal for both relaxing and entertaining. The kitchen provides ample cabinetry and workspace, flowing seamlessly into the dining and living areas. Step outside to enjoy a large yard--perfect for gatherings, pets, or simply unwinding after a long day. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, dining, and just a short drive to local beaches and Pensacola, this home offers both tranquility and accessibility.

22. 2021-10-26
    soldstatus $253,000
23. 2021-10-05
    soldstatus $253,000 Sold 966-char remark

    Show marketing remark (966 chars)

    Nicely maintained, all brick cottage home in Monticello Estates is now available AND the seller is contributing up to $2,500 toward the buyer's closing costs!!! Entering the welcoming foyer, you'll notice the wood look luxury vinyl flooring throughout. This home offers you plenty of natural light and an inviting floorplan. The open living area flows into the kitchen and dining area, making this home perfect for entertaining. This kitchen has a convenient pantry, wonderful island offering extra work space, storage, plus extra seating and your dining area overlooks the patio and backyard. Another great feature of this home is the split Master Bedroom, giving you added privacy! Your master bath has dual vanities, which is always nice for separate space and added bathroom storage, plus a large shower! With the convenience of an indoor laundry, SMART home system, two car garage, and just minutes from Milton and I-10, this is the perfect home for you!

24. 2021-09-27
    status Pending 966-char remark

    Show marketing remark (966 chars)

    Nicely maintained, all brick cottage home in Monticello Estates is now available AND the seller is contributing up to $2,500 toward the buyer's closing costs!!! Entering the welcoming foyer, you'll notice the wood look luxury vinyl flooring throughout. This home offers you plenty of natural light and an inviting floorplan. The open living area flows into the kitchen and dining area, making this home perfect for entertaining. This kitchen has a convenient pantry, wonderful island offering extra work space, storage, plus extra seating and your dining area overlooks the patio and backyard. Another great feature of this home is the split Master Bedroom, giving you added privacy! Your master bath has dual vanities, which is always nice for separate space and added bathroom storage, plus a large shower! With the convenience of an indoor laundry, SMART home system, two car garage, and just minutes from Milton and I-10, this is the perfect home for you!

25. 2021-09-01
    historical Contingent 966-char remark

    Show marketing remark (966 chars)

    Nicely maintained, all brick cottage home in Monticello Estates is now available AND the seller is contributing up to $2,500 toward the buyer's closing costs!!! Entering the welcoming foyer, you'll notice the wood look luxury vinyl flooring throughout. This home offers you plenty of natural light and an inviting floorplan. The open living area flows into the kitchen and dining area, making this home perfect for entertaining. This kitchen has a convenient pantry, wonderful island offering extra work space, storage, plus extra seating and your dining area overlooks the patio and backyard. Another great feature of this home is the split Master Bedroom, giving you added privacy! Your master bath has dual vanities, which is always nice for separate space and added bathroom storage, plus a large shower! With the convenience of an indoor laundry, SMART home system, two car garage, and just minutes from Milton and I-10, this is the perfect home for you!

26. 2021-08-18
    listed $244,900 Active 966-char remark

    Show marketing remark (966 chars)

    Nicely maintained, all brick cottage home in Monticello Estates is now available AND the seller is contributing up to $2,500 toward the buyer's closing costs!!! Entering the welcoming foyer, you'll notice the wood look luxury vinyl flooring throughout. This home offers you plenty of natural light and an inviting floorplan. The open living area flows into the kitchen and dining area, making this home perfect for entertaining. This kitchen has a convenient pantry, wonderful island offering extra work space, storage, plus extra seating and your dining area overlooks the patio and backyard. Another great feature of this home is the split Master Bedroom, giving you added privacy! Your master bath has dual vanities, which is always nice for separate space and added bathroom storage, plus a large shower! With the convenience of an indoor laundry, SMART home system, two car garage, and just minutes from Milton and I-10, this is the perfect home for you!

27. 2019-06-27
    soldstatus $174,250
28. 2019-04-30
    listed $174,525
29. 2018-08-10
    soldstatus $2,767,500
30. 2011-03-02
    soldstatus $580,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,473 · $206/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,473 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,487
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$2,473
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,959
• − Management: −$1,959
• − HOA: −$216
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$5,539
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,329
• After-tax cash flow: $330/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bagdad

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #571
• US rank: #10887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bagdad, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,828
• Household income: $85,440
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 122.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.35%
• Current HPI: 301.8819
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-54.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $265,000 PARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $265,000 ECAR
• 2026-04-29 Listed $275,000 PARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $275,000 ECAR
• 2021-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $253,000 Public Records
• 2021-10-05 Sold (MLS) $253,000 PARMLS
• 2021-09-27 Pending — PARMLS
• 2021-09-01 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2021-08-18 Listed $244,900 PARMLS
• 2019-06-27 Sold (MLS) $174,250 PARMLS
• 2019-04-30 Listed $174,525 PARMLS
• 2018-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $2,767,500 Public Records
• 2011-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $580,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+33.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,473 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.