FAC28483A Plan · Splendora, TX 77372

$104,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,330 sqft · Manufactured · 765 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this stunning 3 bedroom 2 bath home with over 1,330 sf. You're going to love this gorgeous open island kitchen with hardwood tobacco cabinets throughout. This amazing kitchen and dining room open onto the living/great room area allowing free flow and engagement with your friends and family while you're making that amazing family recipe. You'll also love the China sinks in the bathrooms with the spacious master layout with a 60" garden tub/shower combo. Your new home awaits! MSRP: $123,900 SALE PRICE $113,900

Key facts

• Open island kitchen
• China sinks
• Listed 764 days

Tags

• OPEN ISLAND KITCHEN
• HARDWOOD TOBACCO CABINETS
• CHINA SINKS
• SPACIOUS MASTER LAYOUT

🏗️ New construction. The $104,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $176,087.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $105k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $162 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.2% in Splendora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 542 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 765 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.

Recommended offer $92,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 765 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.94%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $176,087
• List price: $104,900
• Delta: -40.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-18,184
• Equity at exit: $26,255

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,435
• Equity at exit: $15,225

Cash invested: $49,304 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 542
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,746 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$923
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$220 /mo · $2,641/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,540

Max offer price $176,087

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,022
• Closing costs: $5,283
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25982 Stillbrook Ln Splendora, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,265	$1.16	13d	1	0.96mi
25625 Chestnut Ln Splendora, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$1,675	$1.07	24d	1	1.10mi
25687 Roy Rogers Ct Splendora, TX	4.0	3.0	1607	$1,895	$1.18	4d	1	1.42mi
26471 Joy Village Dr Splendora, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,350	$1.29	22d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,900 Active 765 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,900 Active 764 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,900 Active 763 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,900 Active 762 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,900 Active 760 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,900 Active 759 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $104,900 Active 756 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $104,900 Active 755 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $104,900 Active 754 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $104,900 Active 751 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $104,900 Active 750 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $104,900 Active 749 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $104,900 Active 748 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,900 Active 747 DOM
15. 2024-06-21
    price $104,900 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    Welcome to this stunning 3 bedroom 2 bath home with over 1,330 sf. You're going to love this gorgeous open island kitchen with hardwood tobacco cabinets throughout. This amazing kitchen and dining room open onto the living/great room area allowing free flow and engagement with your friends and family while you're making that amazing family recipe. You'll also love the China sinks in the bathrooms with the spacious master layout with a 60" garden tub/shower combo. Your new home awaits! MSRP: $123,900 SALE PRICE $113,900

16. 2024-05-14
    listed $113,900 Active 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    Welcome to this stunning 3 bedroom 2 bath home with over 1,330 sf. You're going to love this gorgeous open island kitchen with hardwood tobacco cabinets throughout. This amazing kitchen and dining room open onto the living/great room area allowing free flow and engagement with your friends and family while you're making that amazing family recipe. You'll also love the China sinks in the bathrooms with the spacious master layout with a 60" garden tub/shower combo. Your new home awaits! MSRP: $123,900 SALE PRICE $113,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,946
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,864
• − Property taxes: −$2,641
• − Insurance: −$880
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,676
• − Management: −$1,676
• − Depreciation: −$5,123
• Taxable loss: −$913
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$219
• After-tax cash flow: $2,164/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It has a good curb appeal and is ready for minor cosmetic improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and home value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Splendora, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2024-06-21 Price Changed $104,900 Zillow
• 2024-05-14 Listed $113,900 Zillow