1524 4th Ave · Scottsbluff, NE 69361

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,314 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1925 10,150 sqft lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1925

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $244 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.1% in Scottsbluff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#127 in NE, #4,862 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities D-.
• Scottsbluff Public Schools (town): math 45% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #89 of 111 in NE (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 33 units permitted in Scotts Bluff County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Scotts Bluff County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $108,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.07%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $330,902
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2117 4th Ave	0.43mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,409 (+4%)	2mo	$345,000	$143	62
2222 5th Ave	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,169 (-6%)	24mo	$295,000	$136	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-3,130
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $17,230
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 69361

• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,267 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,280/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $959

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-19
   price $115,000
3. 2025-12-05
   listed $118,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,280 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,990 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: +$709/yr (+$59/mo · 55.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,280
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,217
• − Management: −$1,217
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $1,132
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$272
• After-tax cash flow: $2,650/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Scottsbluff Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3176470
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,931
• Composite: 36.14/100
• National rank: #4745
• State rank: #89 of 111 in NE

Livability — Scottsbluff

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #4862

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Scottsbluff, NE
• Population (ZIP): 16,965

Population outlook (Scotts Bluff County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,740 people
• By 2030: 35,229 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 34,160 · -4.4%
• By 2050: 33,656 · -5.8%
• By 2075: 35,257 · -1.4%
• By 2100: 39,158 · +9.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Scotts Bluff

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.7) · D 25.6% · R 73.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.7pp · 2024: -47.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.7 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+48.9 2012: R+37.7 2008: R+33.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.96%
• Current HPI: 169.5952
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

-2.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Pending — WNBOR
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $115,000 WNBOR
• 2025-12-05 Listed $118,000 WNBOR

Property tax history

-9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,280 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.