1402 W Patterson St · Lakeland, FL 33815

$70,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 212 Days on market

Built 1972 6,499 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great rental MH in west Lakeland. Tenant occupied and will stay if buyer want to build their portfolio. Seller has another similar MH available "Trenton" and will accept a reduced sale. Seller will sell both for $58000.00

Key facts

• 6,499 sq ft lot
• Built 1972
• Listed 212 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 0.15 acres (50 x 130); Total acreage less than 1/4 acre
• Financial info: No investor or income/expense details listed
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details listed
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public utilities; Sewer: Other
• Home design: Mobile home (single wide); Residential property; One level; Faces east
• Construction: Frame construction; Slate roof; Built on foundation type not specified; Approximately 199? (year built not provided)
• Exterior features: Dog run; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating listed; No cooling listed
• Interior features: No interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: No laundry facilities (none listed)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $594 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jesse Keen Elementary School (math 20% / reading 21%, grade F, #2,094 of 2,144 statewide, top 98%, 649 students, 67% FRL); Sleepy Hill Middle School (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 1,090 students, 66% FRL); Kathleen Senior High School (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #501 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,051 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 74 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $70k implies a 146% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.39%
• DSCR: 2.62
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 6.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.11×
• Total profit: $80,534
• Equity at exit: $63,062

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.3%
• Equity multiple: 12.12×
• Total profit: $217,871
• Equity at exit: $135,995

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33815

• Home prices YoY: 12.6%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,388 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,271/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $594

Break-even live

Break-even rent $636

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $634	-5% $614	+0% $594	+5% $575	+10% $555
Rent	-10% $485	-5% $540	+0% $594	+5% $649	+10% $704
Rate	-1.0pp $630	-0.5pp $612	base $594	+0.5pp $576	+1.0pp $558

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1113 S Central Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	672	$1,700	$2.53	13d	1	0.20mi
808 S Central Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	25d	1	0.48mi
457 Arapahoe Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,095	$1.46	4d	1	0.80mi
455 Arapahoe Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,199	$1.60	20d	1	0.81mi
830 W Beacon Rd #13 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	13d	1	0.96mi
830 W Beacon Rd Lakeland, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	690	$1,295	$1.88	25d	2	0.96mi
115 Cresap St Unit 11 1-12 Lakeland, FL	1.0	1.0	575	$950	$1.65	16d	1	1.21mi
711 S Missouri Ave Lakeland, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,175	$1.81	5d	1	1.24mi
400 W Beacon Rd Lakeland, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	862	$2,001	$2.32	5d	6	1.27mi
2245 New Tampa Hwy Lakeland, FL	1.0	1.0	500	$977	$1.95	25d	1	1.33mi
118 Riggins St Lakeland, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,150	$1.64	25d	1	1.33mi
1112 South Blvd Unit E Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	729	$1,250	$1.71	25d	1	1.41mi
214 N Chestnut Rd Lakeland, FL	1.0	1.0	500	$1,000	$2.00	25d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 46 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $70,000 Active 212 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 209 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 208 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 207 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 206 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 204 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $70,000 Active 201 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 200 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 199 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 198 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $70,000 Active 195 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 193 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 192 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 191 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    price $70,000
16. 2026-04-15
    price $79,000
17. 2026-03-20
    price $70,000
18. 2026-03-14
    price $79,000
19. 2026-01-28
    price $66,000
20. 2026-01-22
    price $70,000
21. 2026-01-02
    price $75,000
22. 2025-12-29
    price $79,000
23. 2025-12-23
    price $70,000
24. 2025-11-25
    price $79,000
25. 2025-11-21
    listed $89,000 Active
26. 2020-05-26
    historical
27. 2019-11-20
    price $59,000
28. 2019-08-31
    price $45,000
29. 2019-07-23
    price $49,999
30. 2019-07-18
    listed $59,000 Active
31. 2018-06-26
    soldstatus $28,500 Sold 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Great rental MH in west Lakeland. Tenant occupied and will stay if buyer want to build their portfolio. Seller has another similar MH available "Trenton" and will accept a reduced sale. Seller will sell both for $58000.00

32. 2018-06-22
    status Pending 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Great rental MH in west Lakeland. Tenant occupied and will stay if buyer want to build their portfolio. Seller has another similar MH available "Trenton" and will accept a reduced sale. Seller will sell both for $58000.00

33. 2018-06-22
    price $29,900 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Great rental MH in west Lakeland. Tenant occupied and will stay if buyer want to build their portfolio. Seller has another similar MH available "Trenton" and will accept a reduced sale. Seller will sell both for $58000.00

34. 2018-06-21
    status Active 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Great rental MH in west Lakeland. Tenant occupied and will stay if buyer want to build their portfolio. Seller has another similar MH available "Trenton" and will accept a reduced sale. Seller will sell both for $58000.00

35. 2018-05-10
    status Pending 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Great rental MH in west Lakeland. Tenant occupied and will stay if buyer want to build their portfolio. Seller has another similar MH available "Trenton" and will accept a reduced sale. Seller will sell both for $58000.00

36. 2018-03-06
    listed $36,500 Active 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Great rental MH in west Lakeland. Tenant occupied and will stay if buyer want to build their portfolio. Seller has another similar MH available "Trenton" and will accept a reduced sale. Seller will sell both for $58000.00

37. 2018-03-02
    historical
38. 2018-02-15
    price $36,000
39. 2017-10-25
    price $35,750
40. 2017-10-23
    status Active
41. 2017-10-03
    historical
42. 2017-08-28
    price $36,000
43. 2017-08-16
    price $37,200
44. 2017-05-02
    price $37,500
45. 2017-03-03
    listed $39,900 Active
46. 1998-12-28
    soldstatus $8,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,271 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,271 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,656
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,271
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,333
• − Management: −$1,333
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $6,413
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,539
• After-tax cash flow: $5,593/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,975
• Household income: $37,487
• Rent vs Own: 40.4% rent · 59.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% German 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.45%
• Current HPI: 424.0956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+775.0% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $70,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $79,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $70,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $79,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $66,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $70,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $79,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $70,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $79,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-21 Listed $89,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-26 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-20 Price Changed $59,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-31 Price Changed $45,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-23 Price Changed $49,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-18 Listed $59,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-26 Sold (MLS) $28,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-22 Price Changed $29,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-21 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-06 Listed $36,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-15 Price Changed $36,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-25 Price Changed $35,750 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-23 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-28 Price Changed $36,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-16 Price Changed $37,200 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-02 Price Changed $37,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-03 Listed $39,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,271 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.