2209 E 29th St · Lubbock, TX 79404

$94,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 128 Days on market

Built 1957 6,440 sqft lot $82/sqft · 86% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the comfort and simplicity of 2209 E 29th St in Lubbock, TX. This inviting home features an easy-flow floor plan with a welcoming living space, a practical kitchen setup, and bedrooms that offer privacy and relaxation. Step outside to a generously sized backyard—ideal for outdoor activities, gardening, or customizing the space to fit your needs. Its location provides quick access to major roads, shopping, and local amenities, making daily errands seamless. A great option for anyone seeking an affordable, well-located home with plenty of potential!

Key facts

• Easy-flow floor plan
• Local amenities
• 6,440 sq ft lot

Tags

• EASY-FLOW FLOOR PLAN
• PRACTICAL KITCHEN SETUP
• GENEROUSLY SIZED BACKYARD
• QUICK ACCESS TO MAJOR ROADS
• LOCAL AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $94k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $83k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($650 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.24%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $50,516
• List price: $94,000
• Delta: 86.08%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2132 E 30th St	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,191 (+3%)	16mo	$53,000	$45	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.22% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $29,513
• Equity at exit: $43,454

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.03×
• Total profit: $79,723
• Equity at exit: $67,906

Cash invested: $26,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79404

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,087 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$493
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $699/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $747

Max offer price $94,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $322	-5% $295	+0% $268	+5% $242	+10% $215
Rent	-10% $182	-5% $225	+0% $268	+5% $311	+10% $354
Rate	-1.0pp $316	-0.5pp $292	base $268	+0.5pp $244	+1.0pp $219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,500
• Closing costs: $2,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3113 Teak Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1088	$695	$0.64	22d	1	0.25mi
3113 Teak Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1088	$750	$0.69	44d	1	0.25mi
2906 Beech Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	912	$1,200	$1.32	44d	1	0.27mi
2806 E 30th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	912	$900	$0.99	44d	1	0.34mi
1704 E 29th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	832	$775	$0.93	22d	1	0.35mi
1516 E 27th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,195	$1.17	44d	1	0.41mi
1903 E 15th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,075	$1.13	14d	1	1.01mi
2603 Elm Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,175	$0.97	44d	1	1.11mi
505 E 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	960	$1,125	$1.17	14d	1	1.20mi
2123 E Broadway Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	963	$950	$0.99	22d	1	1.20mi
2117 E Broadway Unit 1 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	963	$950	$0.99	44d	1	1.20mi
3411 E 16th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,100	$0.79	22d	1	1.21mi
2226 E Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	44d	1	1.23mi
2206 E Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1152	$975	$0.85	45d	1	1.24mi
2211 E Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,100	$0.94	44d	1	1.26mi
824 Vanda Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	832	$750	$0.90	44d	1	1.32mi
1014 David Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,030	$1.00	14d	1	1.38mi
808 Vanda Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	832	$695	$0.84	22d	1	1.39mi
3621 E 15th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,114	$1.08	44d	1	1.46mi
1516 E 8th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,050	$0.90	22d	1	1.46mi
804 David Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,049	$1.02	14d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,000 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,000 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $94,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,000 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $94,000 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $94,000 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $94,000 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,000 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,000 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,000 Active 110 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $94,000 Active 109 DOM
17. 2026-02-10
    listed $94,000 Active 568-char remark

    Show marketing remark (568 chars)

    Discover the comfort and simplicity of 2209 E 29th St in Lubbock, TX. This inviting home features an easy-flow floor plan with a welcoming living space, a practical kitchen setup, and bedrooms that offer privacy and relaxation. Step outside to a generously sized backyard—ideal for outdoor activities, gardening, or customizing the space to fit your needs. Its location provides quick access to major roads, shopping, and local amenities, making daily errands seamless. A great option for anyone seeking an affordable, well-located home with plenty of potential!

18. 2025-10-11
    historical $875
19. 2025-09-20
    listed $875
20. 2025-09-15
    historical $875
21. 2025-08-23
    listed $875
22. 2025-02-21
    historical $875
23. 2025-02-05
    price $875
24. 2024-08-08
    listed $925
25. 2024-03-14
    historical $925
26. 2024-01-26
    price $925
27. 2024-01-12
    listed $850
28. 2022-11-11
    historical
29. 2017-12-08
    soldstatus 118-char remark

    Show marketing remark (118 chars)

    Currently rented $700.00 per month. Great neighborhood just blocks away from new Elementary school and Dunbar Academy.

30. 2017-10-09
    listed $62,750 118-char remark

    Show marketing remark (118 chars)

    Currently rented $700.00 per month. Great neighborhood just blocks away from new Elementary school and Dunbar Academy.

31. 2008-03-26
    soldstatus
32. 2005-09-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $699 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,720 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,021/yr (+$85/mo · 146.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,044
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,265
• − Property taxes: −$699
• − Insurance: −$470
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,044
• − Management: −$1,044
• − Depreciation: −$2,735
• Taxable income: $1,788
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$429
• After-tax cash flow: $2,791/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,529
• Household income: $51,630
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 366.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Black 22% White 20% Two or more races 17% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.22%
• Current HPI: 163.854
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+49.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Listed $94,000 LARMLS
• 2025-10-11 Rental Removed $875 LARMLS
• 2025-09-20 Listed for Rent $875 LARMLS
• 2025-09-15 Rental Removed $875 APPFOLIO
• 2025-08-23 Listed for Rent $875 APPFOLIO
• 2025-02-21 Rental Removed $875 APPFOLIO
• 2025-02-05 Price Changed $875 APPFOLIO
• 2024-08-08 Listed for Rent $925 APPFOLIO
• 2024-03-14 Rental Removed $925 APPFOLIO
• 2024-01-26 Price Changed $925 APPFOLIO
• 2024-01-12 Listed for Rent $850 APPFOLIO
• 2022-11-11 Rental Removed — APPFOLIO
• 2017-12-08 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2017-10-09 Listed $62,750 LARMLS
• 2008-03-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-09-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $699 · -32.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.