411 Mount Holly St · Baltimore, MD 21229

$125,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,434 sqft · Townhouse public records · 392 Days on market

Built 1924 Fair condition 1,200 sqft lot $87/sqft · 44% below area Est $221k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 1924
• Listed 391 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $125k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $787 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 5.9% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elmer A. Henderson: A Johns Hopkins Partnership (math 2% / reading 16%, grade F, #650 of 860 statewide, top 77%, 642 students, 80% FRL); Vanguard Collegiate Middle (math 3% / reading 15%, grade F, #212 of 225 statewide, top 95%, 343 students, 84% FRL); Baltimore Polytechnic Institute (math 71% / reading 84%, grade A-, #22 of 222 statewide, top 10%, 1,555 students, 43% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 12% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Baltimore City Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 373 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 84d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 392 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $9k; list at $125k implies a 1251% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 24% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 392 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.99%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,394
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -43.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
304 Lyndhurst St	0.11mi	4/1.0	1,434 (0%)	0mo	$121,000	$84	95
409 N Edgewood St	0.22mi	4/1.5	1,408 (-2%)	1mo	$150,000	$107	84
118 N Hilton St	0.47mi	4/1.0	1,422 (-1%)	1mo	$100,000	$70	75
4019 Edmondson Ave	0.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,512 (+5%)	0mo	$15,000	$10	69
618 Wicklow Rd	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,462 (+2%)	1mo	$171,000	$117	65
134 N Culver St	0.34mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,552 (+8%)	2mo	$165,000	$106	62
4455 Old Frederick Rd	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,416 (-1%)	2mo	$208,000	$147	60
4209 Old Frederick Rd	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	1mo	$215,000	$140	59
4266 Rokeby Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-2%)	1mo	$258,000	$184	53
66 S Monastery Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (-14%)	1mo	$133,000	$108	46
130 Collins Ave S	0.56mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,232 (-14%)	2mo	$83,500	$68	42
3917 Stokes Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,254 (-13%)	1mo	$215,000	$171	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $34,941
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.34×
• Total profit: $116,756
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 126 active · 107 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.9 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $167,498 ($114/sqft)
• Median days on market: 59 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +35.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 21229

• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 373
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,055 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,539/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $787

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,058

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $858	-5% $823	+0% $787	+5% $752	+10% $717
Rent	-10% $625	-5% $706	+0% $787	+5% $868	+10% $950
Rate	-1.0pp $850	-0.5pp $819	base $787	+0.5pp $755	+1.0pp $722

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
409 Normandy Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.0	1640	$1,500	$0.91	121d	1	0.12mi
3633 Edmondson Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1268	$2,000	$1.58	11d	1	0.12mi
522 Lyndhurst St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1434	$2,000	$1.39	1d	1	0.13mi
3607 W Lexington St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,895	$1.80	101d	1	0.16mi
202 N Edgewood St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1710	$2,250	$1.32	121d	1	0.19mi
510 N Edgewood St Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	1226	$1,900	$1.55	30d	1	0.19mi
405 N Edgewood St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1408	$2,000	$1.42	30d	1	0.20mi
3507 Edmondson Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1428	$2,300	$1.61	140d	1	0.20mi
623 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1250	$2,000	$1.60	121d	1	0.23mi
633 Linnard St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,000	$1.33	86d	1	0.26mi
3712 Gelston Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	121d	1	0.27mi
602 Denison St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1677	$850	$0.51	11d	1	0.30mi
125 N Monastery Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,250	$2.08	30d	1	0.31mi
245 N Monastery Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1350	$2,650	$1.96	30d	1	0.32mi
730 Linnard St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.0	1360	$1,750	$1.29	121d	1	0.32mi
730 Linnard St Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.0	1360	$1,600	$1.18	11d	1	0.32mi
3324 Edmondson Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,995	$1.43	88d	1	0.33mi
612 Wildwood Pkwy Baltimore, MD	4.0	4.5	1700	$2,800	$1.65	30d	1	0.33mi
4020 Gelston Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,775	$1.40	30d	1	0.34mi
4020 Gelston Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,875	$1.48	140d	1	0.34mi
205 N Culver St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1216	$1,650	$1.36	8d	1	0.35mi
222 N Hilton St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1120	$2,100	$1.88	3d	1	0.38mi
41 N Kossuth St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,800	$1.48	121d	1	0.39mi
3803 Colborne Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1770	$2,000	$1.13	8d	1	0.41mi
787 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1116	$1,575	$1.41	121d	1	0.41mi
780 Linnard St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,590	$1.30	140d	1	0.42mi
798 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1360	$2,295	$1.69	121d	1	0.43mi
787 Linnard St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1224	$1,300	$1.06	85d	1	0.45mi
1015 Lyndhurst St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1710	$2,300	$1.35	68d	1	0.51mi
3336 W Caton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,625	$1.31	121d	1	0.51mi
117 Collins Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1617	$2,350	$1.45	140d	1	0.56mi
3214 W Baltimore St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,400	$1.11	11d	1	0.57mi
15 N Abington Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1418	$2,195	$1.55	5d	1	0.58mi
25 S Hilton St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	939	$1,600	$1.70	68d	1	0.60mi
37 N Bernice Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,700	$1.06	64d	1	0.61mi
37 N Bernice Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,700	$1.06	61d	1	0.61mi
4018 Massachusetts Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,400	$1.33	121d	1	0.62mi
300 Camillia Pl Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.0	1481	$2,500	$1.69	77d	1	0.62mi
300 Camillia Pl Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.0	1481	$2,500	$1.69	83d	1	0.62mi
38 N Rosedale St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1268	$1,799	$1.42	85d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $125,000 Active 392 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $125,000 Active 391 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $125,000 Active 390 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 389 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $125,000 Active 388 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 387 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 386 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 385 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 384 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $125,000 Active 383 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $125,000 Active 382 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $125,000 Active 381 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $125,000 Active 380 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $125,000 Active 379 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 373 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 372 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 371 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 368 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 367 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $125,000 Active 366 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $125,000 Active 365 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $125,000 Active 364 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $125,000 Active 362 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $125,000 Active 361 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $125,000 Active 360 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $125,000 Active 359 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $125,000 Active 358 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $125,000 Active 357 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $125,000 Active 356 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $125,000 Active 355 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $125,000 Active 354 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $125,000 Active 353 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $125,000 Active 352 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $125,000 Active 351 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $125,000 Active 350 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $125,000 Active 349 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $125,000 Active 348 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $125,000 Active 347 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $125,000 Active 346 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 345 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $125,000 Active 343 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 342 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 341 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 340 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 337 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 335 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $125,000 Active 334 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $125,000 Active 332 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $125,000 Active 330 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $125,000 Active 329 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,539 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,539 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,656
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,539
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,973
• − Management: −$1,973
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $7,909
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,898
• After-tax cash flow: $7,550/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $35,850–$64,530 screening

This townhouse requires significant exterior repairs and maintenance, including painting and roof repair, to improve its condition and value.

Deferred maintenance Est. $40,000–$120,000 screening

• Major Roof (roof) — The roof appears to be in poor condition with visible damage and missing shingles.
• Major Windows (windows) — The windows have peeling paint and appear to be in poor condition.
• Major Electrical (electrical) — The electrical panel is not visible, but the house appears to be old and in need of an update.
• Major Plumbing (plumbing) — The exterior of the house shows signs of water damage and the presence of a chain-link fence suggests possible water intrusion.

Repairs flagged

• Major paint — Chipped paint on exterior
• Major roof — Signs of wear and tear

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Roof repair — Improves structural integrity and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 7/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mary E. Rodman Elementary F MD #766/860 Nat'l #40,579/41,679 Middle Booker T. Washington Middle F MD #223/225 Nat'l #13,819/14,009 High Green Street Academy F MD #198/222 Nat'l #15,957/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 624,249 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 46,679
• Household income: $60,047
• Rent vs Own: 43.1% rent · 56.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 73% White 15% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -259.07%
• Current HPI: 226.896
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.38%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+1575.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-28 Listed $155,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1981-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $9,250 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,539 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.