2816 County Road 628 · Fisk, MO 63940

$32,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · Other public records · 161 Days on market

Built 1958 10,018 sqft lot ↓ 60% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

2816 CR 628 in Fisk MO! Priced to sell quickly! Needs a little bit of work, but could make a cute first-time home for anyone starting out or anyone looking for their next investment property to earn additional income! Located out in a country setting! The backyard butts up to fields! Twin Rivers School District, Fisk Elementary.

Key facts

• Fisk elementary
• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1958

Tags

• BACKYARD BUTTS UP TO FIELDS
• TWIN RIVERS SCHOOL DISTRICT
• FISK ELEMENTARY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $32k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $343 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($836 rent vs $32k).
• Recommended offer: $28k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#380 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools D-.
• Twin Rivers R-X (rural): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #250 of 324 in MO (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($221 loan paydown + $960 appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Butler County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $28,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.70%
• DSCR: 3.79
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.88×
• Total profit: $25,770
• Equity at exit: $14,389

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.83×
• Total profit: $61,229
• Equity at exit: $22,175

Cash invested: $8,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63940

• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $836 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$168
• Tax from tax record: −$11 /mo · $132/yr
• Insurance: −$13
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$176
• Net cashflow: $343

Break-even live

Break-even rent $402

Max offer price $32,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $361	-5% $352	+0% $343	+5% $334	+10% $325
Rent	-10% $277	-5% $310	+0% $343	+5% $376	+10% $409
Rate	-1.0pp $359	-0.5pp $351	base $343	+0.5pp $335	+1.0pp $326

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,000
• Closing costs: $960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $32,000 Active 161 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $32,000 Active 160 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $32,000 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $32,000 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $32,000 Active 156 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $32,000 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $32,000 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $32,000 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $32,000 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $32,000 Active 149 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $32,000 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $32,000 Active 145 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $32,000 Active 144 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $32,000 Active 143 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    price $32,000 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    2816 CR 628 in Fisk MO! Priced to sell quickly! Needs a little bit of work, but could make a cute first-time home for anyone starting out or anyone looking for their next investment property to earn additional income! Located out in a country setting! The backyard butts up to fields! Twin Rivers School District, Fisk Elementary.

16. 2026-02-24
    status Active 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    2816 CR 628 in Fisk MO! Priced to sell quickly! Needs a little bit of work, but could make a cute first-time home for anyone starting out or anyone looking for their next investment property to earn additional income! Located out in a country setting! The backyard butts up to fields! Twin Rivers School District, Fisk Elementary.

17. 2026-01-15
    status Pending 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    2816 CR 628 in Fisk MO! Priced to sell quickly! Needs a little bit of work, but could make a cute first-time home for anyone starting out or anyone looking for their next investment property to earn additional income! Located out in a country setting! The backyard butts up to fields! Twin Rivers School District, Fisk Elementary.

18. 2025-11-29
    listed $40,000 Active 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    2816 CR 628 in Fisk MO! Priced to sell quickly! Needs a little bit of work, but could make a cute first-time home for anyone starting out or anyone looking for their next investment property to earn additional income! Located out in a country setting! The backyard butts up to fields! Twin Rivers School District, Fisk Elementary.

19. 2024-05-01
    soldstatus
20. 2024-04-30
    soldstatus Closed 128-char remark

    Show marketing remark (128 chars)

    Nice Vinyl sided 2 bedroom with fresh paint and new flooring, Great starter home on public water in Twin Rivers School District.

21. 2024-02-28
    status Pending 128-char remark

    Show marketing remark (128 chars)

    Nice Vinyl sided 2 bedroom with fresh paint and new flooring, Great starter home on public water in Twin Rivers School District.

22. 2024-02-13
    price $39,500 128-char remark

    Show marketing remark (128 chars)

    Nice Vinyl sided 2 bedroom with fresh paint and new flooring, Great starter home on public water in Twin Rivers School District.

23. 2023-11-20
    listed $49,500 Active 128-char remark

    Show marketing remark (128 chars)

    Nice Vinyl sided 2 bedroom with fresh paint and new flooring, Great starter home on public water in Twin Rivers School District.

24. 2023-11-11
    historical
25. 2023-08-31
    listed $80,000 Active
26. 2020-08-06
    soldstatus
27. 2020-08-03
    soldstatus
28. 2016-04-08
    soldstatus
29. 1999-05-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $132 · $11/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $310 · $26/mo
• Expected delta: +$178/yr (+$15/mo · 134.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone A · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,030
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,792
• − Property taxes: −$132
• − Insurance: −$1,662
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$802
• − Management: −$802
• − Depreciation: −$931
• Taxable income: $3,907
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$938
• After-tax cash flow: $3,178/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Twin Rivers R-X
• NCES district ID: 2930520
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $34,037
• Composite: 27.12/100
• National rank: #7037
• State rank: #250 of 324 in MO

Livability — Fisk

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #380
• US rank: #16726

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,501

Population outlook (Butler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,648 people
• By 2030: 42,329 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 41,498 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 40,308 · -5.5%
• By 2075: 36,168 · -15.2%
• By 2100: 28,893 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Butler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.8) · D 17.7% · R 81.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -63.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.8 2020: R+62.3 2016: R+61.6 2012: R+46.7 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-60.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $32,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-29 Listed $40,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-04-30 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-28 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-13 Price Changed $39,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-20 Listed $49,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-11 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-31 Listed $80,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-08-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-04-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $132 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.