12239 4th St · Northome, MN 56661

$135,500

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1995

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Nice home nestled in city limits of North home Minnesota, close to snowmobile and ATV trails just a great up north feel. Small town living.

Key facts

• Built 1995
• Listed 11 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $136k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-671/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $99k (27.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $99k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#494 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• South Koochiching School District (rural): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #333 of 467 in MN (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Northome Elementary (math 44% / reading 54%, grade D, #423 of 857 statewide, top 55%, 84 students, 63% FRL); Northome Secondary (math 15% / reading 44%, grade F, #349 of 471 statewide, top 75%, 84 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 45% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 26 units permitted in Koochiching County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($937 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Koochiching County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $98,514 (27.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.77%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.97% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $12,477
• Equity at exit: $60,677

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $49,658
• Equity at exit: $93,316

Cash invested: $37,940 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56661

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $985 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$711
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $806/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $-56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,056

Max offer price $125,618

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $21	-5% $-18	+0% $-56	+5% $-94	+10% $-133
Rent	-10% $-134	-5% $-95	+0% $-56	+5% $-17	+10% $22
Rate	-1.0pp $12	-0.5pp $-21	base $-56	+0.5pp $-91	+1.0pp $-127

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,875
• Closing costs: $4,065
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,500 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,500 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,500 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,500 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,500 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,500 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,500 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   remarks 139-char remark
9. 2026-06-12
   listed $135,500 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $806 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,162 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$356/yr (+$30/mo · 44.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,822
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,590
• − Property taxes: −$806
• − Insurance: −$678
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$946
• − Management: −$946
• − Depreciation: −$3,942
• Taxable loss: −$3,085
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$740
• After-tax cash flow: $69/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Koochiching School District
• NCES district ID: 2732700
• Math proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $40,157
• Composite: 39.92/100
• National rank: #7917
• State rank: #333 of 467 in MN

Livability — Northome

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #494
• US rank: #11915

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northome, MN
• Population (ZIP): 911

Population outlook (Koochiching County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,977 people
• By 2030: 11,406 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 10,045 · -16.1%
• By 2050: 8,746 · -27.0%
• By 2075: 6,363 · -46.9%
• By 2100: 4,275 · -64.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 20% Romanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Koochiching

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.7) · D 36.4% · R 62.0% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.8pp toward R · 2008: 10.1pp · 2024: -25.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.7 2020: R+21.3 2016: R+20.0 2012: D+9.5 2008: D+10.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• Current HPI: 152.943
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $135,500 FSBO.com

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $806 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.