Dogwood III Plan · Burleson, TX 76028

$434,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,333 sqft · SingleFamily · 509 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Classic Series Dogwood III floor plan is a two-story home with four bedrooms and three bathrooms. Features of this plan include a covered porch, formal dining or study, large family room with vaulted ceilings, open kitchen with custom cabinets and an island, a primary suite with a walk-in closet and garden tub, and an upstairs game room. Contact us or visit our model home for more information about building this plan.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Formal dining
• Large family room

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• FORMAL DINING
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN
• CUSTOM CABINETS
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $434,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $452,068.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $435k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $435k).
• Recommended offer: $383k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.5% in Burleson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Joshua ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #139 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 679 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,391/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($101k/yr) (locally 1117% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 509 days — a 12% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $382,791 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 509 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.76%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $452,068
• List price: $434,990
• Delta: -3.78%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2608 Lila	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,275 (-2%)	5mo	$444,990	$196	84
320 Ben Thomas St	0.20mi	4/2.0	2,336 (+0%)	4mo	$415,000	$178	83
340 Alina St	0.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,253 (-3%)	4mo	$439,900	$195	79
2729 Ben Thomas St	0.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,253 (-3%)	1mo	$417,500	$185	73
2636 Lila St	0.17mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,527 (+8%)	1mo	$499,900	$198	72
305 Aurora Hills Trl	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,527 (+8%)	4mo	$449,900	$178	72
200 Hawks Ridge Trl	0.46mi	4/2.5	2,384 (+2%)	3mo	$398,000	$167	71
2605 Steve St	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,589 (+11%)	5mo	$474,900	$183	68
328 Alina St	0.13mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,589 (+11%)	3mo	$484,990	$187	66
217 Hawks Ridge Trl	0.45mi	4/2.0	2,453 (+5%)	0mo	$435,000	$177	66
515 Deerwood Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0	2,184 (-6%)	5mo	$325,000	$149	49
2525 Greenhaven Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	2,135 (-8%)	4mo	$322,000	$151	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-7,456
• Equity at exit: $67,405

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $60,701
• Equity at exit: $39,087

Cash invested: $126,579 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76028

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 679
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,391 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,371
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$565 /mo · $6,781/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,132
• Net cashflow: $1,134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,955

Max offer price $452,068

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $113,017
• Closing costs: $13,562
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2516 Castle Pines Dr Unit 1287532P Burleson, TX	5.0	3.0	2507	$16,227	$6.47	22d	1	0.24mi
2516 Castle Pines Dr Burleson, TX	5.0	3.0	2518	$8,950	$3.55	24d	1	0.24mi
2435 Castle Pines Dr Burleson, TX	4.0	3.0	3064	$2,950	$0.96	1d	1	0.32mi
2752 Elmwood Dr Burleson, TX	4.0	2.0	2032	$2,800	$1.38	43d	1	0.39mi
1733 Trinity St Burleson, TX	4.0	2.0	2213	$4,900	$2.21	3d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $434,990 Active 509 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $434,990 Active 508 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $434,990 Active 507 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $434,990 Active 506 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $434,990 Active 504 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $434,990 Active 500 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $434,990 Active 499 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $434,990 Active 498 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $434,990 Active 495 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $434,990 Active 494 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $434,990 Active 493 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $434,990 Active 492 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $434,990 Active 491 DOM
14. 2025-01-25
    listed $434,990 Active 425-char remark

    Show marketing remark (425 chars)

    The Classic Series Dogwood III floor plan is a two-story home with four bedrooms and three bathrooms. Features of this plan include a covered porch, formal dining or study, large family room with vaulted ceilings, open kitchen with custom cabinets and an island, a primary suite with a walk-in closet and garden tub, and an upstairs game room. Contact us or visit our model home for more information about building this plan.

15. 2024-12-30
    listed $434,990 Active 425-char remark

    Show marketing remark (425 chars)

    The Classic Series Dogwood III floor plan is a two-story home with four bedrooms and three bathrooms. Features of this plan include a covered porch, formal dining or study, large family room with vaulted ceilings, open kitchen with custom cabinets and an island, a primary suite with a walk-in closet and garden tub, and an upstairs game room. Contact us or visit our model home for more information about building this plan.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $64,688
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,323
• − Property taxes: −$6,781
• − Insurance: −$2,260
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,175
• − Management: −$5,175
• − Depreciation: −$13,151
• Taxable income: $6,823
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,637
• After-tax cash flow: $11,976/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Joshua ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824930
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,696
• Composite: 44.65/100
• National rank: #2769
• State rank: #139 of 826 in TX

Livability — Burleson

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #2133

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burleson, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• City population: 81,549
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 81,549
• Household income: $101,138
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1117.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -141.44%
• Current HPI: 282.466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-01-25 Listed $434,990 Zillow
• 2024-12-30 Listed $434,990 Zillow