16310 Oaklane Trl · Stagecoach, TX 77355

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2000 10,820 sqft lot Est $240k · 17% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-maintained manufactured home featuring spacious double-wide layout in quiet residential area. Property includes backup generator for reliable power, fully fenced backyard perfect for privacy and pets; covered carport protects vehicles from weather; two convenient storage sheds provide ample space for tools, seasonal items, and outdoor equipment. Home comes mostly furnished for easy move-in (EXCLUDES living room sofa set and piano). The well-kept yard and peaceful setting creates an ideal environment for comfortable living. Perfect for those seeking affordable homeownership with an outdoor space. Ready for immediate occupancy with included furnishings making transition seamless for new

Key facts

• Covered carport
• Two storage sheds
• Backup generator

Tags

• BACKUP GENERATOR
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• COVERED CARPORT
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by SBB Community Management; Annual association fee of $200; Community trails

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Driveway; Carport with 1 space
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Generator (electric service backup)
• Home design: Residential property; Faces south; Built in 2000; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Sprinkler/irrigation system; Storage shed; Pond on lot; Cleared lot; Subdivision setting; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor) — 11'9" x 14'; Bedroom (First floor) — 13'7" x 10'; Bedroom (First floor) — 13'7" x 10'; Living room (First floor) — 16'2" x 25'9"; Dining room (First floor) — 9'4" x 12'7"; Kitchen (First floor) — 15' x 12'8"
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bath features soaking tub and separate shower; Double vanity
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Electric fireplace; Double vanity; Kitchen island; Laminate countertops; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination; Window treatments; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer and dryer listed among appliances

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $256 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (0.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (0.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.2% in Stagecoach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,010 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia West H S (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,208 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 553 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,550 (0.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.50%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $240,128
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31302 W Timberloch Trl	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,792 (0%)	2mo	$219,900	$123	94
31307 W Timberloch Trl	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-13%)	8mo	$195,000	$125	66
16218 Evergreen Timbers	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-12%)	6mo	$209,995	$134	63
30935 Towering Oaks Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	2,052 (+14%)	2mo	$289,900	$141	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-16,089
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $6,968
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77355

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Active inventory: 553
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,986 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,955/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,661

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24836 Sugar Pine Cone St Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,950	$1.30	17d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-10
   listed $200,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,955 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,660 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,705/yr (+$142/mo · 87.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,826
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,955
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,906
• − Management: −$1,906
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$167
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$40
• After-tax cash flow: $3,117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Stagecoach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1010
• US rank: #17937

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,847
• Household income: $102,066
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.90%
• Current HPI: 268.5845
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2000-10-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,955 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.