104 Winding Way · Covington, KY 41011

$225,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 881 sqft · Condo public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1975

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property. 2 Bedroom 2 Full Bath Condo, city views. Sold AS-IS

Key facts

• Custom closets
• Granite countertops
• 30-foot double deck

Tags

• BREATHTAKING SKYLINE VIEWS
• 30-FOOT DOUBLE DECK
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BUILT-IN WINE COOLER
• CUSTOM CLOSETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-272 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#40 in KY, #376 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+.
• Covington Independent (suburban): math 10% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #162 of 165 in KY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 214 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 699 units permitted in Kenton County in 2024 (287 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenton County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 25 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $225k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $177,102 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.18%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-56,220
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-81,001
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41011

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,771 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,119/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA est. from 2 same-building comps: −$304
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $-272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,115

Max offer price $176,984

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
515 Main St Covington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	934	$2,215	$2.37	1d	8	0.49mi
22 Swain Ct Covington, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	951	$1,895	$1.99	1d	3	0.60mi
1261 Parkway Ave Covington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,375	$1.62	4d	3	0.64mi
218 W 5th St Covington, KY	1.0	1.0	800	$1,595	$1.99	14d	1	0.67mi
1000 Parkvale Ct Park Hills, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,495	$1.76	43d	1	0.71mi
1002 Parkvale Ct Unit 1004 1 Park Hills, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$995	$1.17	43d	1	0.72mi
1002 Parkvale Ct Unit 1002 3 Park Hills, KY	1.0	1.0	750	$925	$1.23	7d	1	0.72mi
1205 Lee St Unit 2 Covington, KY	1.0	1.0	800	$1,500	$1.88	23d	1	0.82mi
1205 Lee St Unit 1 Covington, KY	1.0	1.0	675	$1,350	$2.00	23d	1	0.82mi
50 W Rivercenter Blvd Covington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1273	$3,640	$2.86	1d	9	0.88mi
1431 Dixie Hwy Park Hills, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	920	$2,553	$2.77	1d	10	0.93mi
303 Greenup St Covington, KY	1.0	1.0	678	$1,445	$2.13	23d	1	1.05mi
1025 Scott St Unit 2 Covington, KY	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	3d	1	1.07mi
634 Greenup St Covington, KY	1.0	1.5	1050	$1,595	$1.52	7d	1	1.09mi
521 Garrard St Apt 3 Covington, KY	1.0	1.0	875	$1,996	$2.28	14d	1	1.14mi
521 Garrard St Apt 4 Covington, KY	1.0	1.0	725	$1,695	$2.34	17d	1	1.14mi
521 Garrard St Apt 2 Covington, KY	1.0	1.0	725	$1,595	$2.20	17d	1	1.14mi
521 Garrard St Apt 1 Covington, KY	1.0	1.5	825	$1,895	$2.30	17d	1	1.14mi
521 Garrard St Apt 6 Covington, KY	1.0	1.0	775	$1,995	$2.57	16d	1	1.14mi
231 W 4th St Cincinnati, OH	1.0	1.0	914	$1,575	$1.72	23d	1	1.16mi
44 W Freedom Way Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0–2.0	943	$2,859	$3.03	1d	28	1.17mi
205 W 4th St Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0–2.0	648	$2,162	$3.33	1d	44	1.20mi
151 W 4th St Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0	726	$2,399	$3.30	1d	102	1.22mi
47 Ash St Ludlow, KY	1.0	1.0	850	$950	$1.12	12d	1	1.24mi
105 Ash St Unit 1364141P Ludlow, KY	2.0	1.0	699	$2,906	$4.16	7d	1	1.26mi
309 Vine St Cincinnati, OH	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	955	$2,467	$2.58	1d	15	1.28mi
121 E Freedom Way Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0–2.0	988	$2,999	$3.03	1d	27	1.29mi
1 W 4th St Cincinnati, OH	3.0	1.0–3.5	1675	$6,550	$3.91	3d	96	1.32mi
5 Devou Woods Covington, KY	2.0	1.0	700	$890	$1.27	1d	1	1.35mi
336 Elm St Unit 2 Ludlow, KY	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,275	$1.21	2d	1	1.39mi
336 Elm St Unit 4 Ludlow, KY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,350	$1.23	43d	1	1.39mi
344 E 13th St Unit 1 Covington, KY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,275	$1.27	23d	1	1.43mi
414 Walnut St Cincinnati, OH	1.0	1.0	752	$2,510	$3.34	1d	23	1.43mi
1215 Elberta Cir Park Hills, KY	2.0	1.0	825	$1,050	$1.27	3d	1	1.44mi
135 Garfield Pl Cincinnati, OH	1.0	1.0	670	$1,413	$2.11	1d	6	1.45mi
151 Seventh St W Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0–2.0	1191	$2,129	$1.79	1d	4	1.45mi
309 Sycamore St #201 Cincinnati, OH	2.0	2.0	850	$1,600	$1.88	23d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $225,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $225,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $225,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $225,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-05-12
   listed $225,000 Active
10. 2014-01-19
    historical
11. 2013-11-29
    soldstatus $75,000 91-char remark

    Show marketing remark (91 chars)

    This is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property. 2 Bedroom 2 Full Bath Condo, city views. Sold AS-IS

12. 2013-05-23
    listed $77,900 91-char remark

    Show marketing remark (91 chars)

    This is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property. 2 Bedroom 2 Full Bath Condo, city views. Sold AS-IS

13. 2012-09-17
    listed $124,900
14. 2012-08-05
    historical
15. 2012-02-03
    listed $164,900
16. 2011-10-05
    historical
17. 2011-04-11
    listed $115,000
18. 2010-05-30
    historical
19. 2010-02-13
    listed $123,900
20. 2008-11-22
    historical
21. 2008-05-28
    historical
22. 2008-05-22
    listed $174,900
23. 2008-02-27
    listed $149,900
24. 2007-12-31
    historical
25. 2007-10-18
    historical
26. 2007-05-23
    listed $179,000
27. 2007-05-21
    historical
28. 2007-04-18
    listed $189,000
29. 2007-04-18
    listed $189,000
30. 2007-04-12
    historical
31. 2007-04-10
    historical
32. 2006-10-12
    listed $195,000
33. 2006-10-10
    listed $175,000
34. 2006-05-11
    historical
35. 2006-04-07
    soldstatus $155,500
36. 2006-03-31
    soldstatus $144,900
37. 2006-03-06
    soldstatus $150,100
38. 2006-02-28
    soldstatus $141,450
39. 2006-02-21
    soldstatus $147,900
40. 2006-02-21
    soldstatus $149,900
41. 2006-02-15
    soldstatus $150,900
42. 2006-02-13
    soldstatus $129,200
43. 2006-02-03
    soldstatus $161,200
44. 2006-01-31
    soldstatus $140,359
45. 2006-01-23
    soldstatus $178,800
46. 2005-04-22
    listed $173,750
47. 2005-04-22
    listed $157,900
48. 2005-04-22
    listed $149,900
49. 2005-04-22
    listed $148,900
50. 2005-04-22
    listed $155,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,119 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,935 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$816/yr (+$68/mo · 72.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,252
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,119
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,700
• − Management: −$1,700
• − HOA: −$3,648
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$7,189
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,725
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,536/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Covington Independent
• NCES district ID: 2101350
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $33,681
• Composite: 15.04/100
• National rank: #9353
• State rank: #162 of 165 in KY

Livability — Covington

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #376

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Covington, KY
• County: Kenton County · 142,881 people
• City population: 34,373
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 26,981
• Household income: $69,970
• Rent vs Own: 53.9% rent · 46.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1488.0

Population outlook (Kenton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,205 people
• By 2030: 177,897 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 182,671 · +4.9%
• By 2050: 183,543 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 178,977 · +2.7%
• By 2100: 159,920 · -8.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.7) · D 38.2% · R 59.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -21.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.7 2020: R+19.3 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+24.3 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -215.20%
• Current HPI: 237.0869
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+70.6% since first listed

49 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $225,000 FSBO.com
• 2014-01-19 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2013-11-29 Sold (MLS) $75,000 NKMLS
• 2013-05-23 Listed $77,900 NKMLS
• 2012-09-17 Listed $124,900 NKMLS
• 2012-08-05 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2012-02-03 Listed $164,900 NKMLS
• 2011-10-05 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2011-04-11 Listed $115,000 NKMLS
• 2010-05-30 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2010-02-13 Listed $123,900 NKMLS
• 2008-11-22 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2008-05-28 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2008-05-22 Listed $174,900 NKMLS
• 2008-02-27 Listed $149,900 NKMLS
• 2007-12-31 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2007-10-18 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2007-05-23 Listed $179,000 NKMLS
• 2007-05-21 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2007-04-18 Listed $189,000 NKMLS
• 2007-04-18 Listed $189,000 NKMLS
• 2007-04-12 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2007-04-10 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2006-10-12 Listed $195,000 NKMLS
• 2006-10-10 Listed $175,000 NKMLS
• 2006-05-11 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2006-04-07 Sold (MLS) $155,500 NKMLS
• 2006-03-31 Sold (MLS) $144,900 NKMLS
• 2006-03-06 Sold (MLS) $150,100 NKMLS
• 2006-02-28 Sold (MLS) $141,450 NKMLS
• 2006-02-21 Sold (MLS) $149,900 NKMLS
• 2006-02-21 Sold (MLS) $147,900 NKMLS
• 2006-02-15 Sold (MLS) $150,900 NKMLS
• 2006-02-13 Sold (MLS) $129,200 NKMLS
• 2006-02-03 Sold (MLS) $161,200 NKMLS
• 2006-01-31 Sold (MLS) $140,359 NKMLS
• 2006-01-23 Sold (MLS) $178,800 NKMLS
• 2005-04-22 Listed $151,900 NKMLS
• 2005-04-22 Listed $151,900 NKMLS
• 2005-04-22 Listed $128,900 NKMLS
• 2005-04-22 Listed $155,900 NKMLS
• 2005-04-22 Listed $148,900 NKMLS
• 2005-04-22 Listed $149,900 NKMLS
• 2005-04-22 Listed $157,900 NKMLS
• 2005-04-22 Listed $173,750 NKMLS
• 2005-04-18 Listed $150,900 NKMLS
• 2005-04-18 Listed $140,900 NKMLS
• 2005-04-18 Listed $144,900 NKMLS
• 2005-04-11 Listed $131,900 NKMLS

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,119 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.