1432 Holly Vista Dr · Colonial Beach, VA 22443

$315,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,354 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1962 0.27 ac lot $233/sqft · 8% below area Est $342k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rebuilt from the foundation up, this home presents exceptional value just steps from the beach - less than 200 yards from the Potomac River, Practically brand-new in an unbeatable waterfront setting. This gorgeous 3-bedroom, 2-bath coastal retreat has been completely rebuilt from the foundation up, with brand-new everything and even water views. Located in a golf-cart-friendly neighborhood, it’s the perfect mix of small-town charm and modern comfort. Step inside to a bright, open-concept layout with wide-plank LVP flooring throughout. The kitchen features quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and soft-close cabinetry, making it both stylish and functional. Both bathrooms have a clean, spa-like feel with designer tile, glass shower doors, and updated fixtures. Out back, a spacious deck is perfect for entertaining - whether it’s a crab feast with friends, morning coffee, or unwinding in the evening with a breeze coming off the river. With the water just steps away, it truly feels like a getaway. Major updates include a new roof, siding, windows, HVAC, plumbing, electrical, and public sewer connection - so you can move in with peace of mind. Located in the Westmoreland Shores community, with access to a voluntary HOA offering a sandy beach, marina, boat ramp, and waterfront event space. Just a short golf cart ride to Colonial Beach for restaurants, live music, and the boardwalk. Convenient to Dahlgren, Fredericksburg, DC, and Richmond. Whether you’re looking for a full-time home, weekend escape, or investment property, this one checks all the boxes.

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• Built 1962
• Listed 63 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-140 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (31.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.4% in Colonial Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#460 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: schools B, crime B, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Westmoreland County Public School District (rural): math 34% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #105 of 131 in VA (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 197 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 220 units permitted in Westmoreland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Westmoreland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $315k implies a 197% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,571 (31.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.90%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $341,716
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -7.82%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1448 Holly Vista Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,346 (-1%)	9mo	$395,000	$293	87
1448 Holly Vis	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,346 (-1%)	9mo	$395,000	$293	86
1228 Holly Vista Dr	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,456 (+8%)	2mo	$125,000	$86	71
245 Fort King Dr	0.61mi	3/—	1,354 (0%)	1mo	$295,500	$218	70
275 Monticello	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (-0%)	0mo	$320,000	$237	68
198 Cedar Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,258 (-7%)	1mo	$339,000	$269	66
233 Stratford Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,258 (-7%)	10mo	$348,700	$277	60
405 Cedar Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,201 (-11%)	8mo	$323,000	$269	51
405 Cedar Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,201 (-11%)	8mo	$323,000	$269	50
39 Fort King Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-11%)	6mo	$295,000	$246	48
95 Rolando Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,547 (+14%)	3mo	$365,000	$236	48
80 Potomac Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,264 (-7%)	8mo	$345,000	$273	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-60,106
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-64,489
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22443

• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,156 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $713/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $-140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,332

Max offer price $290,343

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
588 Wakefield Dr Colonial Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,050	$1.41	44d	1	0.48mi
1204 Lossing Ave Colonial Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1655	$2,100	$1.27	2d	1	0.87mi
1 Monroe Bay Ave Colonial Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,695	$1.06	13d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $315,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $315,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $315,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $315,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $319,999 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,999 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,999 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,999 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    price $319,999 1602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1602 chars)

    Rebuilt from the foundation up, this home presents exceptional value just steps from the beach - less than 200 yards from the Potomac River, Practically brand-new in an unbeatable waterfront setting. This gorgeous 3-bedroom, 2-bath coastal retreat has been completely rebuilt from the foundation up, with brand-new everything and even water views. Located in a golf-cart-friendly neighborhood, it’s the perfect mix of small-town charm and modern comfort. Step inside to a bright, open-concept layout with wide-plank LVP flooring throughout. The kitchen features quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and soft-close cabinetry, making it both stylish and functional. Both bathrooms have a clean, spa-like feel with designer tile, glass shower doors, and updated fixtures. Out back, a spacious deck is perfect for entertaining - whether it’s a crab feast with friends, morning coffee, or unwinding in the evening with a breeze coming off the river. With the water just steps away, it truly feels like a getaway. Major updates include a new roof, siding, windows, HVAC, plumbing, electrical, and public sewer connection - so you can move in with peace of mind. Located in the Westmoreland Shores community, with access to a voluntary HOA offering a sandy beach, marina, boat ramp, and waterfront event space. Just a short golf cart ride to Colonial Beach for restaurants, live music, and the boardwalk. Convenient to Dahlgren, Fredericksburg, DC, and Richmond. Whether you’re looking for a full-time home, weekend escape, or investment property, this one checks all the boxes.

17. 2026-04-17
    listed $339,999 Active 1602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1602 chars)

    Rebuilt from the foundation up, this home presents exceptional value just steps from the beach - less than 200 yards from the Potomac River, Practically brand-new in an unbeatable waterfront setting. This gorgeous 3-bedroom, 2-bath coastal retreat has been completely rebuilt from the foundation up, with brand-new everything and even water views. Located in a golf-cart-friendly neighborhood, it’s the perfect mix of small-town charm and modern comfort. Step inside to a bright, open-concept layout with wide-plank LVP flooring throughout. The kitchen features quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and soft-close cabinetry, making it both stylish and functional. Both bathrooms have a clean, spa-like feel with designer tile, glass shower doors, and updated fixtures. Out back, a spacious deck is perfect for entertaining - whether it’s a crab feast with friends, morning coffee, or unwinding in the evening with a breeze coming off the river. With the water just steps away, it truly feels like a getaway. Major updates include a new roof, siding, windows, HVAC, plumbing, electrical, and public sewer connection - so you can move in with peace of mind. Located in the Westmoreland Shores community, with access to a voluntary HOA offering a sandy beach, marina, boat ramp, and waterfront event space. Just a short golf cart ride to Colonial Beach for restaurants, live music, and the boardwalk. Convenient to Dahlgren, Fredericksburg, DC, and Richmond. Whether you’re looking for a full-time home, weekend escape, or investment property, this one checks all the boxes.

18. 2026-04-09
    historical $339,999 1602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1602 chars)

    Rebuilt from the foundation up, this home presents exceptional value just steps from the beach - less than 200 yards from the Potomac River, Practically brand-new in an unbeatable waterfront setting. This gorgeous 3-bedroom, 2-bath coastal retreat has been completely rebuilt from the foundation up, with brand-new everything and even water views. Located in a golf-cart-friendly neighborhood, it’s the perfect mix of small-town charm and modern comfort. Step inside to a bright, open-concept layout with wide-plank LVP flooring throughout. The kitchen features quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and soft-close cabinetry, making it both stylish and functional. Both bathrooms have a clean, spa-like feel with designer tile, glass shower doors, and updated fixtures. Out back, a spacious deck is perfect for entertaining - whether it’s a crab feast with friends, morning coffee, or unwinding in the evening with a breeze coming off the river. With the water just steps away, it truly feels like a getaway. Major updates include a new roof, siding, windows, HVAC, plumbing, electrical, and public sewer connection - so you can move in with peace of mind. Located in the Westmoreland Shores community, with access to a voluntary HOA offering a sandy beach, marina, boat ramp, and waterfront event space. Just a short golf cart ride to Colonial Beach for restaurants, live music, and the boardwalk. Convenient to Dahlgren, Fredericksburg, DC, and Richmond. Whether you’re looking for a full-time home, weekend escape, or investment property, this one checks all the boxes.

19. 2025-11-10
    historical
20. 2025-11-07
    price $339,999
21. 2025-10-21
    price $344,000
22. 2025-10-04
    historical
23. 2025-10-04
    listed $359,000 Active
24. 2025-07-25
    listed $359,000 Active
25. 2025-07-24
    historical
26. 2024-10-21
    historical
27. 2024-10-17
    listed $329,999 Active
28. 2024-10-08
    historical
29. 2024-06-28
    soldstatus $106,000
30. 2024-06-21
    soldstatus $106,000 Closed
31. 2024-06-07
    historical Active Under Contract
32. 2024-05-23
    listed $199,000 Active
33. 2024-05-18
    historical $199,000
34. 2018-03-30
    historical
35. 2018-03-24
    price $99,000
36. 2018-03-24
    historical Active Under Contract
37. 2018-03-22
    status Contingent (No Kick Out)
38. 2018-02-16
    historical Withdrawn
39. 2018-01-05
    price
40. 2017-10-26
    price
41. 2017-07-17
    price
42. 2017-07-15
    price
43. 2017-06-23
    status Active
44. 2017-06-08
    status Contingent (No Kick Out)
45. 2016-06-10
    listed Active
46. 2016-06-10
    listed $139,900 Active
47. 2007-11-09
    soldstatus $147,000
48. 2007-11-09
    soldstatus $147,000
49. 2007-10-16
    historical
50. 2007-09-15
    listed $153,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $713 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,583 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,870/yr (+$156/mo · 262.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,869
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$713
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,069
• − Management: −$2,069
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$7,367
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,768
• After-tax cash flow: $93/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westmoreland County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103980
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -47.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $51,665
• Composite: 39.94/100
• National rank: #3845
• State rank: #105 of 131 in VA

Livability — Colonial Beach

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #460
• US rank: #19615

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B Employment C Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Westmoreland County · 10,011 people
• City population: 10,011
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 10,011
• Household income: $64,810
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 126.0

Population outlook (Westmoreland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,643 people
• By 2030: 17,520 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 17,041 · -3.4%
• By 2050: 16,397 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 15,012 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 12,917 · -26.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 15% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Westmoreland

• 2024 margin: R (+14.3) · D 42.4% · R 56.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.5pp toward R · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: -14.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.3 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.3 2012: D+0.5 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.23%
• Current HPI: 152.1518
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+109.1% since first listed

39 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $319,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $339,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-09 Coming Soon $339,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-10 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $339,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $344,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-04 Listed $359,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-04 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-25 Listed $359,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-24 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-21 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-17 Listed $329,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-08 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $106,000 Public Records
• 2024-06-21 Sold (MLS) $106,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-06-07 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-05-23 Listed $199,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-05-18 Coming Soon $199,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-03-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-03-24 Price Changed $99,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-03-24 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-03-22 Pending — MRIS
• 2018-02-16 Delisted — MRIS
• 2018-01-05 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2017-10-26 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2017-07-17 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2017-07-15 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2017-06-23 Relisted — MRIS
• 2017-06-08 Pending — MRIS
• 2016-06-10 Listed — MRIS
• 2016-06-10 Listed $139,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $147,000 Public Records
• 2007-11-09 Sold (MLS) $147,000 MRIS
• 2007-10-16 Delisted — MRIS
• 2007-09-15 Listed $153,000 MRIS
• 2007-08-17 Delisted — MRIS
• 2007-02-20 Listed — MRIS
• 2007-02-16 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-05-02 Listed — MRIS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $713 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.