19424 Cr 4 · Lockhart, AL 36442

$139,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,535 sqft · Manufactured · 118 Days on market

Built 2009 Fair condition 0.61 ac lot $91/sqft · 52% below area ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Nestled on a quiet hill in the peaceful countryside of southern Alabama, this refreshed 2009 doublewide mobile home offers space, privacy, and move-in-ready comfort. The home features 1,535 square feet with new paint and flooring throughout. Situated on a 0.61-acre surveyed lot, the property includes beautiful mature trees, a large deck ideal for outdoor living, and a partially fenced yard. Paved road frontage provides easy access while maintaining a rural setting. Located near the Florida line and just a short drive to the Emerald Coast beaches, this property is well suited for a primary residence, second home, or weekend retreat. Enjoy quiet country living with convenient coastal access.

Key facts

• Large deck
• New flooring
• New paint

Tags

• NEW PAINT
• NEW FLOORING
• 0.61-ACRE LOT
• BEAUTIFUL MATURE TREES
• LARGE DECK
• PARTIALLY FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($472/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (9.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#183 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Covington County (rural): math 27% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #32 of 129 in AL (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Covington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Covington County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,309 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.20%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,829
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -51.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.97% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $26,707
• Equity at exit: $70,703

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $82,921
• Equity at exit: $115,460

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36442

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,274 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,098/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,224

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,900 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,900 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,900 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 100 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 99 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 98 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    price $139,900
18. 2026-02-18
    listed $144,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,283
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,098
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,223
• − Management: −$1,223
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$1,867
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$448
• After-tax cash flow: $920/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2009 doublewide mobile home is in fair condition with some repairs and maintenance needed. Painting, landscaping, and roof repair would significantly enhance its value for both resale and rental.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
• Minor exterior siding — The siding has some discoloration and wear, but is not in critical condition.
• Minor landscaping — The landscaping is overgrown and in need of maintenance.
• Minor interior paint — The interior walls and paint have some wear, but are not in critical condition.
• Minor HVAC — The HVAC and mechanical systems appear to be in fair condition, with some wear, but are not in critical condition.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Painting will improve the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, enhancing both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping and yard maintenance — A well-maintained yard and landscaping will improve the overall curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters.
• Both Roof repair — Repairing the roof will address a major issue and prevent further damage, improving the home's overall condition and value.
• Both HVAC maintenance — Maintaining the HVAC system will ensure it operates efficiently and reliably, improving comfort and reducing energy costs, which is beneficial for both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · The siding has some discoloration and wear, but is not in critical condition.	Minor	$500–3,000
landscaping · The landscaping is overgrown and in need of maintenance.	Minor	$500–3,000
interior paint · The interior walls and paint have some wear, but are not in critical condition.	Minor	$500–3,000
HVAC · The HVAC and mechanical systems appear to be in fair condition, with some wear, but are not in critical condition.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$17,000–62,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Painting will improve the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and yard maintenance — A well-maintained yard and landscaping will improve the overall curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Roof repair — Repairing the roof will address a major issue and prevent further damage, improving the home's overall condition and value. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — Maintaining the HVAC system will ensure it operates efficiently and reliably, improving comfort and reducing energy costs, which is beneficial for both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Covington County
• NCES district ID: 0100930
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $39,213
• Composite: 32.13/100
• National rank: #5797
• State rank: #32 of 129 in AL

Livability — Lockhart

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #15412

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 284
• Population (ZIP): 3,615

Population outlook (Covington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,007 people
• By 2030: 36,401 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 34,983 · -5.5%
• By 2050: 33,437 · -9.6%
• By 2075: 29,753 · -19.6%
• By 2100: 25,109 · -32.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 11% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Covington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.4) · D 13.6% · R 86.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.1pp toward R · 2008: -58.3pp · 2024: -72.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.4 2020: R+68.1 2016: R+68.5 2012: R+58.3 2008: R+58.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.97%
• Current HPI: 182.2844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-3.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $139,900 CAOR
• 2026-02-18 Listed $144,900 CAOR