3354 Laurel Fork Dr · Houston, TX 77339

$215,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,495 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1979 0.28 ac lot $144/sqft · 10% below area Est $234k · 8% under $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4/2/2 HOME IN ELM GROVE VILLAGE, LIVING ROOM HAS HIGH CEILINGS, FIREPLACE, KITCHEN HAS GRANITE COUNTER TOPS, NO CARPET, OVER SIZED PREMIUM LOT

Key facts

• Granite counter tops
• High ceilings
• Fireplace

Tags

• HIGH CEILINGS
• FIREPLACE
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• OVER SIZED PREMIUM LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-264 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elm Grove El (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 619 students, 57% FRL); Kingwood Middle (math 39% / reading 44%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 1,002 students, 48% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 32% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 316 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask is 11844% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,289 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.27%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $234,474
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -8.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3306 Brookdale Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,559 (+4%)	3mo	$209,990	$135	81
3214 Big Spruce Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,446 (-3%)	1mo	$225,000	$156	75
3322 Brookdale Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,645 (+10%)	1mo	$219,000	$133	74
3322 Sycamore Springs Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,651 (+10%)	1mo	$199,000	$121	70
3306 Sycamore Springs Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,695 (+13%)	5mo	$239,500	$141	66
4014 Sweet Gum Trl	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,497 (+0%)	3mo	$249,900	$167	65
4418 Appalachian Trl	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,471 (-2%)	1mo	$239,900	$163	57
5102 Dobbin Springs Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,441 (-4%)	3mo	$240,000	$167	53
3303 Creek Shadows Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,719 (+15%)	3mo	$250,000	$145	50
3110 Glade Springs Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (-10%)	5mo	$219,990	$163	46
4306 Mountain Peak Way	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,598 (+7%)	3mo	$200,000	$125	46
3802 Loft Forest Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,675 (+12%)	2mo	$259,500	$155	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.48% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-23,446
• Equity at exit: $67,606

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-28,278
• Equity at exit: $85,522

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77339

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,824 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$455 /mo · $5,460/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $-264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,158

Max offer price $168,289

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-143	-5% $-204	+0% $-264	+5% $-325	+10% $-386
Rent	-10% $-408	-5% $-336	+0% $-264	+5% $-192	+10% $-120
Rate	-1.0pp $-156	-0.5pp $-210	base $-264	+0.5pp $-320	+1.0pp $-377

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3327 Sycamore Springs Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1619	$1,575	$0.97	21d	1	0.17mi
3327 Sycamore Springs Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1619	$1,683	$1.04	24d	1	0.17mi
3122 Birch Creek Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,624	$1.12	26d	1	0.17mi
3007 Birch Creek Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1603	$1,795	$1.12	26d	1	0.32mi
2927 Sycamore Springs Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,548	$1.24	45d	1	0.45mi
2921 Sycamore Springs Dr Unit 2954 Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,624	$1.30	12d	1	0.48mi
2921 Sycamore Springs Dr Unit 3112 Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,584	$1.27	1d	1	0.48mi
2921 Sycamore Springs Dr Unit 3047 Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,635	$1.31	1d	1	0.50mi
5110 Shady Gardens Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	3.0	1548	$1,800	$1.16	7d	1	0.58mi
4031 Sherwood St W Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1541	$1,850	$1.20	45d	1	0.72mi
5714 Straight Way Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$1,830	$1.02	21d	1	0.85mi
3714 Windy Haven Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,799	$1.24	45d	1	0.87mi
2306 Old Oak Ln Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1519	$1,700	$1.12	1d	1	0.97mi
2315 Shadbury Ct Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1487	$1,725	$1.16	45d	1	1.14mi
3206 Abbey Field Ln Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,623	$1.07	45d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $215,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $219,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $219,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $219,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $219,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $219,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-04-15
   price $219,000 142-char remark

   Show marketing remark (142 chars)

   4/2/2 HOME IN ELM GROVE VILLAGE, LIVING ROOM HAS HIGH CEILINGS, FIREPLACE, KITCHEN HAS GRANITE COUNTER TOPS, NO CARPET, OVER SIZED PREMIUM LOT

10. 2026-03-26
    listed $1,800

    Show marketing remark (142 chars)

    4/2/2 HOME IN ELM GROVE VILLAGE, LIVING ROOM HAS HIGH CEILINGS, FIREPLACE, KITCHEN HAS GRANITE COUNTER TOPS, NO CARPET, OVER SIZED PREMIUM LOT

11. 2026-03-26
    listed $225,000 Active 142-char remark

    Show marketing remark (142 chars)

    4/2/2 HOME IN ELM GROVE VILLAGE, LIVING ROOM HAS HIGH CEILINGS, FIREPLACE, KITCHEN HAS GRANITE COUNTER TOPS, NO CARPET, OVER SIZED PREMIUM LOT

12. 2025-02-06
    historical $1,700
13. 2025-01-30
    listed $1,700
14. 2025-01-25
    historical $1,700
15. 2024-10-18
    listed $1,700
16. 2012-07-17
    historical
17. 2012-05-04
    listed $129,900
18. 2006-05-19
    historical
19. 2006-04-26
    listed $124,900
20. 1992-09-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,460 · $455/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,460 · $455/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,883
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$5,460
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,751
• − Management: −$1,751
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$6,847
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,643
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,530/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,538
• Household income: $84,102
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2198.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 13% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.48%
• Current HPI: 233.4147
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.59%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+75.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $219,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed for Rent $1,800 HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-06 Rental Removed $1,700 HARMLS
• 2025-01-30 Listed for Rent $1,700 HARMLS
• 2025-01-25 Rental Removed $1,700 HARMLS
• 2024-10-18 Listed for Rent $1,700 HARMLS
• 2012-07-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-05-04 Listed $129,900 HARMLS
• 2006-05-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-04-26 Listed $124,900 HARMLS
• 1992-09-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,460 · +11.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.