1575 CR 434 · Lake Panasoffkee, FL 33538

$85,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1991 5,836 sqft lot Est $77k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• ARV discount +2.6/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Well-kept 2 bedroom 1.5 bathrooms, manufactured home with a view of the Michael Canal in Lake Panasoffkee. This property has an advantage of no HOA and is not in a flood zone. Inside laundry, dining area in kitchen. This home features a deck and view of the Micheal Canal with a storage shed & car port.

Key facts

• 5,836 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1991

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Turnkey furnished; Lot dimensions approximately 75 x 80 (0.13 acres); Living area reported as 672 square feet; No association indicated; Homestead applied

Exterior

• Parking: Has a 1-space carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; Faces west; On waterfront (canal) with water view and water access; Canal is brackish; Fishing pier on property; 75 feet of canal frontage
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Private mailbox; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Open floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $389 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 5.1% in Lake Panasoffkee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#332 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $6k; list at $85k implies a 1317% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.99%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $76,608
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1674 CR 434	0.11mi	2/1.0	616 (-8%)	12mo	$70,000	$114	69
1611 Cr 434	0.05mi	2/1.0	768 (+14%)	9mo	$65,000	$85	65
1217 CR 440a	0.64mi	1/1.0 (-1)	624 (-7%)	4mo	$110,000	$176	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.99% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $44,347
• Equity at exit: $48,103

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.73×
• Total profit: $112,688
• Equity at exit: $82,966

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33538

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,225 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $368/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $732

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2248 CR 446 Lake Panasoffkee, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,225	$1.88	21d	1	0.46mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-31
   remarks 305-char remark
2. 2026-05-31
   listed $85,000 Pending 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $368 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $706 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: +$337/yr (+$28/mo · 91.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$368
• − Insurance: −$1,222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,176
• − Management: −$1,176
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $3,523
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$846
• After-tax cash flow: $3,828/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Panasoffkee

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #5777

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Panasoffkee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 5,748

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.99%
• Current HPI: 329.8431
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1316.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-30 Listed $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1980-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records
• 1970-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records
• 1970-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $368 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.