3638 Pebble Creek Dr · Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance), GA 30815

$124,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,205 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1986 6,534 sqft lot $104/sqft · 31% below area Est $180k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover easy living in this charming single-story ranch located in the heart of the established Pebble Creek community. This 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home features over 1,200 square feet of functional living space wrapped in low-maintenance siding and topped with a durable, long-lasting metal roof. The interior offers a classic layout with a bright, welcoming great room that flows seamlessly into the kitchen area, featuring natural gas for efficient cooking and heating. Each bedroom is well-proportioned, providing a comfortable retreat for family or guests. Situated on a level 0.15-acre lot within a quiet "silent zone," this property offers a peaceful suburban feel while remaining less than a mile from Jamestown Elementary and a short commute to Fort Eisenhower. With no mandatory HOA fees to worry about, this home is a perfect opportunity for those seeking an affordable, move-in-ready residence in a prime Richmond County location.

Key facts

• Durable metal roof
• Short commute
• Single-story ranch

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY RANCH
• LOW-MAINTENANCE SIDING
• DURABLE METAL ROOF
• NATURAL GAS
• LEVEL LOT
• SHORT COMMUTE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $277 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $117k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 5.3% in Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Richmond County (urban): math 12% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #154 of 174 in GA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 371 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 561 units permitted in Richmond County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richmond County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,406 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.52%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $179,968
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: -30.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3623 Pebble Creek Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,221 (+1%)	2mo	$217,000	$178	86
4004 Rambling Way	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,221 (+1%)	6mo	$212,500	$174	77
3615 Pebble Creek Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,221 (+1%)	12mo	$215,000	$176	76
3627 Pebble Creek Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+8%)	2mo	$226,000	$174	75
3629 Pebble Creek Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+8%)	3mo	$222,000	$171	74
4105 Darsey Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,250 (+4%)	1mo	$210,000	$168	72
3326 Saddlebrook Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,257 (+4%)	7mo	$147,000	$117	67
2818 Cranbrook Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,227 (+2%)	6mo	$175,000	$143	49
3524 Edgeworth Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (-9%)	6mo	$165,000	$150	46
3516 Windermere Dr	0.65mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,093 (-9%)	2mo	$150,000	$137	46
3503 Edgeworth Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,350 (+12%)	5mo	$179,900	$133	37
3604 Quail Hollow Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,312 (+9%)	9mo	$185,000	$141	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-6,752
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $724
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30815

• Home prices YoY: -24.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,431 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,752/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,080

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $348	-5% $313	+0% $277	+5% $242	+10% $207
Rent	-10% $164	-5% $221	+0% $277	+5% $334	+10% $390
Rate	-1.0pp $340	-0.5pp $309	base $277	+0.5pp $245	+1.0pp $212

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3524 Edgeworth Dr Hephzibah, GA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,295	$1.08	24d	1	0.51mi
2803 Ptarmigan Rd Hephzibah, GA	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,600	$1.16	24d	1	0.58mi
2803 Ptarmigan Rd Hephzibah, GA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	45d	1	0.58mi
1010 Horizon Ridge Dr Hephzibah, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$1,023	$1.09	15d	1	0.65mi
2834 Brentway Dr Hephzibah, GA	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,600	$1.08	45d	1	0.72mi
3032 Tobacco Rd Hephzibah, GA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,051	$1.50	45d	1	0.88mi
3032 Tobacco Rd Hephzibah, GA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,315	$1.37	24d	1	0.88mi
2704 Cranbrook Dr Hephzibah, GA	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,650	$1.20	45d	1	1.12mi
3883 Crest Dr Hephzibah, GA	3.0	2.0	1380	$3,600	$2.61	15d	1	1.12mi
3881 Crest Dr Hephzibah, GA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,595	$1.14	15d	1	1.14mi
2813 Leawood Ct Hephzibah, GA	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,250	$0.91	45d	1	1.29mi
2604 Edmonton Ct Hephzibah, GA	3.0	2.0	1343	$1,190	$0.89	15d	1	1.31mi
3532 Edmonton St Hephzibah, GA	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,425	$1.03	24d	1	1.32mi
3532 Edmonton St Hephzibah, GA	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,425	$1.03	45d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $124,900 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $124,900 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $124,900 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $124,900 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Price Change 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricestatusdays on market $124,900 Price Change 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,900 Active 43 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $139,900 952-char remark

    Show marketing remark (952 chars)

    Discover easy living in this charming single-story ranch located in the heart of the established Pebble Creek community. This 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home features over 1,200 square feet of functional living space wrapped in low-maintenance siding and topped with a durable, long-lasting metal roof. The interior offers a classic layout with a bright, welcoming great room that flows seamlessly into the kitchen area, featuring natural gas for efficient cooking and heating. Each bedroom is well-proportioned, providing a comfortable retreat for family or guests. Situated on a level 0.15-acre lot within a quiet "silent zone," this property offers a peaceful suburban feel while remaining less than a mile from Jamestown Elementary and a short commute to Fort Eisenhower. With no mandatory HOA fees to worry about, this home is a perfect opportunity for those seeking an affordable, move-in-ready residence in a prime Richmond County location.

17. 2026-04-17
    listed $144,900 New 952-char remark

    Show marketing remark (952 chars)

    Discover easy living in this charming single-story ranch located in the heart of the established Pebble Creek community. This 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home features over 1,200 square feet of functional living space wrapped in low-maintenance siding and topped with a durable, long-lasting metal roof. The interior offers a classic layout with a bright, welcoming great room that flows seamlessly into the kitchen area, featuring natural gas for efficient cooking and heating. Each bedroom is well-proportioned, providing a comfortable retreat for family or guests. Situated on a level 0.15-acre lot within a quiet "silent zone," this property offers a peaceful suburban feel while remaining less than a mile from Jamestown Elementary and a short commute to Fort Eisenhower. With no mandatory HOA fees to worry about, this home is a perfect opportunity for those seeking an affordable, move-in-ready residence in a prime Richmond County location.

18. 2021-12-06
    soldstatus $1,326,158

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,752 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,752 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,170
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,752
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,374
• − Management: −$1,374
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $1,417
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$340
• After-tax cash flow: $2,988/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richmond County
• NCES district ID: 1304380
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,069
• Composite: 13.43/100
• National rank: #9524
• State rank: #154 of 174 in GA

Livability — Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance), GA
• County: Richmond County · 190,917 people
• City population: 154,035
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• Population (ZIP): 44,109
• Household income: $70,202
• Rent vs Own: 28.4% rent · 71.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 867.0

Population outlook (Richmond County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 200,753 people
• By 2030: 200,232 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 196,813 · -2.0%
• By 2050: 190,347 · -5.2%
• By 2075: 172,496 · -14.1%
• By 2100: 146,284 · -27.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 27% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Richmond

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+36.1) · D 67.8% · R 31.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.3pp toward D · 2008: 31.8pp · 2024: 36.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+36.1 2020: D+37.2 2016: D+32.4 2012: D+33.8 2008: D+31.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.74%
• Current HPI: 162.4074
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.71%
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-89.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $139,900 GAMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $144,900 GAMLS
• 2021-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $1,326,158 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,752 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.