6445 SE 173rd Ln · The Villages, FL 34491

$137,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Manufactured public records · 138 Days on market

Built 1985 0.25 ac lot $120/sqft · 71% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

$5,000 Toward Closing Costs, Motivated Seller! Welcome to this 1985 manufactured home located in Belleview Hills Manor in Summerfield, FL, offering a fantastic opportunity for affordable living or investment. Situated on a spacious 0.25-acre lot, this property provides plenty of room to enjoy outdoor space, gardening, or future improvements. Inside, you’ll find a bonus fireplace room, perfect for cozy evenings, a flex space, or an additional living area to make your own. With a motivated seller and $5,000 offered toward buyer closing costs, this home presents strong value and a chance to customize to your taste. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways while still offering a quiet, residential setting. Don’t miss this opportunity, schedule your showing today! A member/manager of the owning LLC is a licensed real estate agent.

Key facts

• Bonus fireplace room
• Flex space
• Spacious lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• BONUS FIREPLACE ROOM
• FLEX SPACE
• QUIET RESIDENTIAL SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $137k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $859 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $137k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 705 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $947 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $137k implies a 1298% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.88%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $80,000
• List price: $137,000
• Delta: 71.25%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $32,492
• Equity at exit: $20,427

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $98,615
• Equity at exit: $11,845

Cash invested: $38,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34491

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Active inventory: 705
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,144 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$718
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $704/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $859

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,056

Max offer price $137,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,250
• Closing costs: $4,110
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7630 SE 174th Gaillard Pl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1265	$4,500	$3.56	21d	1	1.10mi
17442 SE 79th Lovewood Ave The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$4,500	$3.92	21d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $137,000 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $137,000 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-04-27
   price $137,000 871-char remark

   Show marketing remark (871 chars)

   $5,000 Toward Closing Costs, Motivated Seller! Welcome to this 1985 manufactured home located in Belleview Hills Manor in Summerfield, FL, offering a fantastic opportunity for affordable living or investment. Situated on a spacious 0.25-acre lot, this property provides plenty of room to enjoy outdoor space, gardening, or future improvements. Inside, you’ll find a bonus fireplace room, perfect for cozy evenings, a flex space, or an additional living area to make your own. With a motivated seller and $5,000 offered toward buyer closing costs, this home presents strong value and a chance to customize to your taste. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways while still offering a quiet, residential setting. Don’t miss this opportunity, schedule your showing today! A member/manager of the owning LLC is a licensed real estate agent.

4. 2026-02-19
   price $143,000 871-char remark

   Show marketing remark (871 chars)

   $5,000 Toward Closing Costs, Motivated Seller! Welcome to this 1985 manufactured home located in Belleview Hills Manor in Summerfield, FL, offering a fantastic opportunity for affordable living or investment. Situated on a spacious 0.25-acre lot, this property provides plenty of room to enjoy outdoor space, gardening, or future improvements. Inside, you’ll find a bonus fireplace room, perfect for cozy evenings, a flex space, or an additional living area to make your own. With a motivated seller and $5,000 offered toward buyer closing costs, this home presents strong value and a chance to customize to your taste. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways while still offering a quiet, residential setting. Don’t miss this opportunity, schedule your showing today! A member/manager of the owning LLC is a licensed real estate agent.

5. 2026-02-02
   price $147,000 871-char remark

   Show marketing remark (871 chars)

   $5,000 Toward Closing Costs, Motivated Seller! Welcome to this 1985 manufactured home located in Belleview Hills Manor in Summerfield, FL, offering a fantastic opportunity for affordable living or investment. Situated on a spacious 0.25-acre lot, this property provides plenty of room to enjoy outdoor space, gardening, or future improvements. Inside, you’ll find a bonus fireplace room, perfect for cozy evenings, a flex space, or an additional living area to make your own. With a motivated seller and $5,000 offered toward buyer closing costs, this home presents strong value and a chance to customize to your taste. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways while still offering a quiet, residential setting. Don’t miss this opportunity, schedule your showing today! A member/manager of the owning LLC is a licensed real estate agent.

6. 2026-01-20
   price $149,000 871-char remark

   Show marketing remark (871 chars)

   $5,000 Toward Closing Costs, Motivated Seller! Welcome to this 1985 manufactured home located in Belleview Hills Manor in Summerfield, FL, offering a fantastic opportunity for affordable living or investment. Situated on a spacious 0.25-acre lot, this property provides plenty of room to enjoy outdoor space, gardening, or future improvements. Inside, you’ll find a bonus fireplace room, perfect for cozy evenings, a flex space, or an additional living area to make your own. With a motivated seller and $5,000 offered toward buyer closing costs, this home presents strong value and a chance to customize to your taste. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways while still offering a quiet, residential setting. Don’t miss this opportunity, schedule your showing today! A member/manager of the owning LLC is a licensed real estate agent.

7. 2026-01-13
   listed $152,000 Active 871-char remark

   Show marketing remark (871 chars)

   $5,000 Toward Closing Costs, Motivated Seller! Welcome to this 1985 manufactured home located in Belleview Hills Manor in Summerfield, FL, offering a fantastic opportunity for affordable living or investment. Situated on a spacious 0.25-acre lot, this property provides plenty of room to enjoy outdoor space, gardening, or future improvements. Inside, you’ll find a bonus fireplace room, perfect for cozy evenings, a flex space, or an additional living area to make your own. With a motivated seller and $5,000 offered toward buyer closing costs, this home presents strong value and a chance to customize to your taste. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways while still offering a quiet, residential setting. Don’t miss this opportunity, schedule your showing today! A member/manager of the owning LLC is a licensed real estate agent.

8. 1976-04-01
   soldstatus $9,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $704 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,137 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$433/yr (+$36/mo · 61.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥109°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,724
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,674
• − Property taxes: −$704
• − Insurance: −$685
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,058
• − Management: −$2,058
• − Depreciation: −$3,985
• Taxable income: $8,559
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,054
• After-tax cash flow: $8,257/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,318
• Household income: $66,679
• Rent vs Own: 13.2% rent · 86.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 256.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.67%
• Current HPI: 200.0792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1298.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $137,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $143,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $147,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Listed $152,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1976-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $9,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $704 · +47.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.