244 Sweet Rd · Caroga Lake, NY 12095

$90,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 75 Days on market

Built 2008 1.90 ac lot ↓ 28% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

2 bedroom, 2 baths manufactured home nestled on almost 2 acres offering year-round living in a beautiful natural setting, gas fireplace in living room, hot tub in master bedroom.

Key facts

• 1.9 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $451 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 1.4% in Caroga Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#870 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, health & safety C-, schools D+.
• Oppenheim-Ephratah-St. Johnsville CSD (rural): math 30% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #522 of 590 in NY (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fulton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $84,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.46%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.09×
• Total profit: $77,765
• Equity at exit: $81,079

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.8%
• Equity multiple: 9.20×
• Total profit: $206,536
• Equity at exit: $174,850

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12095

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,416 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,902/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $451

Break-even live

Break-even rent $846

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $502	-5% $476	+0% $451	+5% $425	+10% $400
Rent	-10% $339	-5% $395	+0% $451	+5% $507	+10% $562
Rate	-1.0pp $496	-0.5pp $473	base $451	+0.5pp $427	+1.0pp $404

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-12-23
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-23
   price $90,000
3. 2025-10-28
   price $99,000
4. 2025-10-08
   listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,902 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,902 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,991
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,902
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,359
• − Management: −$1,359
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $4,261
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,023
• After-tax cash flow: $4,385/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oppenheim-Ephratah-St. Johnsville CSD
• NCES district ID: 3601107
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $39,730
• Composite: 34.25/100
• National rank: #5253
• State rank: #522 of 590 in NY

Livability — Caroga Lake

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #870
• US rank: #16797

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing C- Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,013

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,132 people
• By 2030: 49,114 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 44,373 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 39,321 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 28,503 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 19,268 · -62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 32.1% · R 67.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+31.4 2016: R+35.5 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.82%
• Current HPI: 297.365
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-28.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-23 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-11-23 Price Changed $90,000 Global MLS
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $99,000 Global MLS
• 2025-10-08 Listed $125,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,902 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.