2120 Robins Ln SE #19 · Salem, OR 97306

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,809 sqft · Manufactured public records · 251 Days on market

Built 1990 $113/sqft · 42% above area Est $145k · 42% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Terrace Lake's 55+ gated community has a spacious Goldenwest w/ an attached, sheetrocked, lg 2-car garage w/ workbench & cabinets just for you! LR/DR combo, island kit w/ pullouts; wood cabinets & wood flrs in high traffic areas; 2 spare rooms/BA off FR w/ gas FP; MBR/BA opposite end w/ huge WIcloset; vinyl siding; easy care yard; 2 decks to enjoy the views!

Key facts

• Solid wood cabinetry
• Unique floor plan
• Low maintenance yard

Tags

• UNIQUE FLOOR PLAN
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• REAL WOOD FLOORS
• SOLID WOOD CABINETRY
• HUGE WI CLOSET
• LOW MAINTENANCE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $531 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Recommended offer: $180k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 272 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 251 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $205k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 251 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.10%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,596
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: 41.77%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2120 Robins Ln SE #180	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,782 (-2%)	2mo	$243,000	$136	91
2120 SE Robins Ln #145	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,782 (-2%)	5mo	$200,000	$112	88
2120 Robins Ln SE #185	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (-4%)	5mo	$224,900	$130	78
2000 Robins Ln SE #34	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,782 (-2%)	11mo	$124,000	$70	77
2120 Robins Ln SE #202	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-10%)	11mo	$194,000	$120	69
2120 Robins Ln SE #38	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,629 (-10%)	13mo	$232,500	$143	68
2000 Robins Ln SE #40	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-10%)	6mo	$81,200	$50	66
2120 Robins Ln SE #128	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-10%)	14mo	$258,000	$159	66
2000 Robins Ln SE #9	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,586 (-12%)	4mo	$143,000	$90	64
2120 Robins Ln SE #207	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,593 (-12%)	10mo	$225,000	$141	62
2120 Robins Ln SE #101	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,586 (-12%)	14mo	$100,000	$63	51
2040 Navaho Ct SE	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-14%)	4mo	$94,999	$61	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,618
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $28,433
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97306

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 272
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,372 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,194/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $531

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,700

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6127 Blue River Dr SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1531	$2,450	$1.60	43d	1	0.49mi
1951 Madras St SE Salem, OR	2.0	2.5	1465	$1,975	$1.35	21d	1	0.53mi
5943 Blue River Dr SE Salem, OR	3.0	3.0	1472	$2,395	$1.63	43d	1	0.62mi
6953 Talloc Ave SE Unit 6955 Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1418	$2,295	$1.62	13d	1	0.73mi
1544 Fircrest Ct SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	1296	$1,850	$1.43	23d	1	0.78mi
5512 Murray St SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1275	$2,645	$2.07	21d	1	1.04mi
2772 Bastille Ave SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1614	$2,495	$1.55	21d	1	1.05mi
5423 Monterey Dr SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1457	$2,295	$1.58	23d	1	1.11mi
922 Rees Hill Rd SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	2333	$3,995	$1.71	43d	1	1.26mi
1250 Baxter Rd SE Unit 1276 Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1289	$2,395	$1.86	13d	1	1.34mi
6755 Devon Ave SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	2213	$3,100	$1.40	43d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 462-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 251 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 250 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 249 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 248 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $205,000 Active 246 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $205,000 Active 243 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 242 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 241 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $205,000 Active 240 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 236 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 461-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 235 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 234 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 233 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $205,000 Active 232 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    price $205,000 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Terrace Lake's 55+ gated community has a spacious Goldenwest w/ an attached, sheetrocked, lg 2-car garage w/ workbench & cabinets just for you! LR/DR combo, island kit w/ pullouts; wood cabinets & wood flrs in high traffic areas; 2 spare rooms/BA off FR w/ gas FP; MBR/BA opposite end w/ huge WIcloset; vinyl siding; easy care yard; 2 decks to enjoy the views!

18. 2026-04-14
    price $215,000 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Terrace Lake's 55+ gated community has a spacious Goldenwest w/ an attached, sheetrocked, lg 2-car garage w/ workbench & cabinets just for you! LR/DR combo, island kit w/ pullouts; wood cabinets & wood flrs in high traffic areas; 2 spare rooms/BA off FR w/ gas FP; MBR/BA opposite end w/ huge WIcloset; vinyl siding; easy care yard; 2 decks to enjoy the views!

19. 2026-03-12
    price $229,900 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Terrace Lake's 55+ gated community has a spacious Goldenwest w/ an attached, sheetrocked, lg 2-car garage w/ workbench & cabinets just for you! LR/DR combo, island kit w/ pullouts; wood cabinets & wood flrs in high traffic areas; 2 spare rooms/BA off FR w/ gas FP; MBR/BA opposite end w/ huge WIcloset; vinyl siding; easy care yard; 2 decks to enjoy the views!

20. 2025-11-14
    price $234,900 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Terrace Lake's 55+ gated community has a spacious Goldenwest w/ an attached, sheetrocked, lg 2-car garage w/ workbench & cabinets just for you! LR/DR combo, island kit w/ pullouts; wood cabinets & wood flrs in high traffic areas; 2 spare rooms/BA off FR w/ gas FP; MBR/BA opposite end w/ huge WIcloset; vinyl siding; easy care yard; 2 decks to enjoy the views!

21. 2025-10-10
    listed $249,900 Active 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    Terrace Lake's 55+ gated community has a spacious Goldenwest w/ an attached, sheetrocked, lg 2-car garage w/ workbench & cabinets just for you! LR/DR combo, island kit w/ pullouts; wood cabinets & wood flrs in high traffic areas; 2 spare rooms/BA off FR w/ gas FP; MBR/BA opposite end w/ huge WIcloset; vinyl siding; easy care yard; 2 decks to enjoy the views!

22. 1996-11-01
    soldstatus $89,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,194 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,194 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$2,194
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,278
• − Management: −$2,278
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable income: $3,248
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$779
• After-tax cash flow: $5,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 193,601
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 34,383
• Household income: $101,753
• Rent vs Own: 30.7% rent · 69.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1437.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Asian 5% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Portuguese 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -335.25%
• Current HPI: 279.7875
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.64%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+129.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $205,000 WVMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $215,000 WVMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $229,900 WVMLS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $234,900 WVMLS
• 2025-10-10 Listed $249,900 WVMLS
• 1996-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $89,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,194 · +51.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.