401 Denice Dr #401 · Seminole, FL 33772

$115,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Manufactured public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1972 18 ac lot $157/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy the relaxed Florida lifestyle in this fully furnished 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom home located in the resident-owned 55+ waterfront community of Lake Seminole Estates. Filled with natural light, the home features central air conditioning and heat, 700 heated square feet, and an open living space with a spacious kitchen offering ample cabinetry and stainless steel appliances. The additional Florida room provides extra space to relax or entertain while enjoying the Florida sunshine. Outside, the property includes a private driveway for convenient parking and a storage shed for additional space and functionality. Lake Seminole Estates offers an active yet easygoing lifestyle with community ame

Key facts

• Private driveway
• Spacious kitchen
• Florida room

Tags

• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FLORIDA ROOM
• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Private lake access with a private boat ramp; Asphalt road access
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee $157 (includes pool, grounds maintenance, sewer, trash, water); Association amenities: clubhouse, laundry, shuffleboard court; Association approval required; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Cable available; BB/HS internet available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); One level; Faces south
• Construction: Metal frame with vinyl siding; Roof over
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Front porch; Private mailbox; Storage shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Thermostat; Blinds and drapes; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Inside laundry in a laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $196 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.7% in Seminole — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#5 in FL, #174 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Seminole Elementary School (math 65% / reading 57%, grade B, #653 of 2,144 statewide, top 31%, 428 students, 59% FRL); Seminole High School (math 26% / reading 47%, grade F, #351 of 667 statewide, top 54%, 1,546 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 209 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $115k implies a 642% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,275 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.76%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $67,200
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8300 Seminole Blvd #314	0.17mi	1/1.0	684 (-2%)	11mo	$54,900	$80	79
8300 Seminole Blvd #345	0.17mi	2/1.0 (+1)	624 (-11%)	14mo	$60,000	$96	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-10,164
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-8,213
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33772

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,445 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $856/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$157
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,197

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $261	-5% $228	+0% $196	+5% $163	+10% $130
Rent	-10% $81	-5% $138	+0% $196	+5% $253	+10% $310
Rate	-1.0pp $253	-0.5pp $225	base $196	+0.5pp $166	+1.0pp $135

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8425 112th St #104 Seminole, FL	1.0	1.0	608	$1,300	$2.14	5d	1	0.39mi
8555 112th St #206 Seminole, FL	1.0	1.0	638	$1,250	$1.96	5d	1	0.45mi
8450 112th St #103 Seminole, FL	1.0	1.0	608	$1,250	$2.06	25d	1	0.46mi
10764 70th Ave Seminole, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	828	$1,500	$1.81	5d	2	0.83mi
10405 Addison Way Seminole, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1133	$1,807	$1.59	3d	18	0.91mi
12100 Park Blvd Seminole, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	921	$1,296	$1.41	3d	40	1.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $157 · $1,884/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $115,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $856 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $954 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$99/yr (+$8/mo · 11.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,336
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$856
• − Insurance: −$1,372
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,387
• − Management: −$1,387
• − HOA: −$1,884
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $663
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$159
• After-tax cash flow: $2,187/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Seminole

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #174

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seminole, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 42,315
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,733
• Household income: $73,586
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 720.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -485.84%
• Current HPI: 315.303
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.10%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+641.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $856 · +25.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.