13822 Gary Ave · Lubbock, TX 79423

$217,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · Land · 52 Days on market

Built 2025 5,175 sqft lot $29/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Seller has already reduced the price by $32,060, giving buyers instant equity and unmatched value. Buy NOW and get up to $8,000 Use-It-Your-Way Cash! This beautifully designed home showcases a full brick exterior with double columns framing a charming covered front porch. Inside, luxury vinyl plank flooring enhances the common areas, complementing the open-concept kitchen, living, and dining spaces. The kitchen features granite or quartz countertops, a spacious island with bar seating, stainless steel appliances, and an enclosed pantry. The secluded master suite includes a large walk-in closet, while both front and back covered patios provide perfect spots for relaxation. Premium plumbing a

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Spacious island
• Full brick exterior

Tags

• FULL BRICK EXTERIOR
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $217k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $168 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock-Cooper ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #98 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lubbock-Cooper East El (math 45% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 759 students, 55% FRL); Lubbock-Cooper Middle (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D+, #470 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 914 students, 37% FRL); Lubbock-Cooper H S (math 67% / reading 65%, grade B, #189 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 2,117 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 673 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $189,125 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.31%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-26,200
• Equity at exit: $32,355

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-15,994
• Equity at exit: $18,762

Cash invested: $60,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79423

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 673
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,891 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,138
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $828/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,679

Max offer price $217,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $291	-5% $229	+0% $168	+5% $106	+10% $45
Rent	-10% $18	-5% $93	+0% $168	+5% $242	+10% $317
Rate	-1.0pp $277	-0.5pp $223	base $168	+0.5pp $111	+1.0pp $54

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,250
• Closing costs: $6,510
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3111 140th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,050	$1.28	45d	1	0.10mi
3105 140th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,150	$1.26	15d	1	0.12mi
3015 138th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,200	$1.25	45d	1	0.15mi
3011 138th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,200	$1.25	45d	1	0.17mi
3011 138th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,200	$1.25	23d	1	0.17mi
3016 140th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,000	$1.48	23d	1	0.17mi
3008 139th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	23d	1	0.19mi
13510 Indiana Ave Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.5	895	$1,275	$1.42	15d	8	0.37mi
2745 137th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,550	$1.10	23d	1	0.45mi
2739 137th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,600	$1.13	45d	1	0.46mi
2903 134th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1873	$2,300	$1.23	23d	1	0.46mi
2713 138th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1650	$2,100	$1.27	23d	1	0.50mi
2550 137th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1732	$1,795	$1.04	15d	1	0.61mi
2626 136th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1238	$1,400	$1.13	45d	1	0.63mi
2540 138th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1328	$1,425	$1.07	15d	1	0.63mi
2627 135th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,600	$1.05	23d	1	0.63mi
2613 136th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,599	$1.28	23d	1	0.65mi
2529 138th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.5	1249	$1,400	$1.12	23d	1	0.65mi
2611 136th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1251	$1,599	$1.28	23d	1	0.65mi
2607 135th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,500	$0.99	45d	1	0.68mi
2415 144th St Unit 1-2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,500	$1.11	15d	1	0.84mi
2410 144th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,500	$1.11	45d	1	0.86mi
2410 144th St Unit 1-2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,399	$1.04	45d	1	0.86mi
2309 134th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,799	$1.24	15d	1	0.88mi
2404 144th St Unit 1-2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,399	$1.04	45d	1	0.90mi
14408 Avenue X Unit 1-2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,500	$1.11	15d	1	0.91mi
2308 133rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,700	$1.10	45d	1	0.91mi
14413 Avenue X Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,450	$1.07	45d	1	0.95mi
13802 Avenue W Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1820	$1,900	$1.04	15d	1	0.98mi
14102 Avenue V Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,500	$1.03	23d	1	1.10mi
2217 150th Pl Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1773	$2,150	$1.21	15d	1	1.21mi
13808 Sherman Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	45d	1	1.39mi
13218 Sherman Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,000	$1.18	45d	1	1.43mi
13213 Sherman Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	15d	1	1.45mi
13212 Avenue S Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	23d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-20
   status Active
3. 2026-01-25
   status Pending
4. 2026-01-21
   status Active
5. 2026-01-21
   price $217,000
6. 2026-01-13
   status Pending
7. 2025-12-10
   listed $227,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $828 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,971 · $331/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,143/yr (+$262/mo · 379.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,695
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,155
• − Property taxes: −$828
• − Insurance: −$1,085
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,816
• − Management: −$1,816
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$6,313
• Taxable loss: −$1,665
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$400
• After-tax cash flow: $2,412/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock-Cooper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815180
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,347
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2214
• State rank: #98 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,998
• Household income: $84,933
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1385.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.00%
• Current HPI: 213.6491
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.13%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2026-01-25 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $217,000 LARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Pending — LARMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listed $227,000 LARMLS