6005 Manley Dr · Red Creek, NY 13143

$105,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 49 Days on market

Built 2026 $67/sqft · 11% above area Est $94k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.3/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new Beacon Prestige 3-bedroom, 2 bath home features gorgeous finishes with an open concept kitchen and living area. The kitchen features whirlpool appliances (dishwasher included!), soft close kitchen drawers, and high-quality dovetail constructed cabinetry. The home includes perimeter heat, allowing a variety of furniture placement without blocking vents! Washer and dryer hook-ups are included in the laundry room/pantry off the kitchen. This new home comes with a one-year limited factory warranty from date of purchase, with additional warranties on appliances and other items. Built entirely in a factory before being delivered and set within the community, manufactured homes are built in compliance with strict federal building codes to ensure superior construction, energy efficiency, and quality. The controlled construction environment and assembly line techniques remove problems encountered during traditional on-site home construction. Much like other assembly line operations, manufactured homes benefit from the economies of scale resulting from purchasing large quantities of materials, and these savings are passed directly to the homebuyer.

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 49 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $463 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#751 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Red Creek Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #415 of 590 in NY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $101,850 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.92%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $94,214
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: 11.45%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6039 Manley Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,760 (+12%)	16mo	$95,000	$54	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $56,101
• Equity at exit: $62,087

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.86×
• Total profit: $142,930
• Equity at exit: $109,353

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13143

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,371 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $303/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $463

Break-even live

Break-even rent $784

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $523	-5% $493	+0% $463	+5% $434	+10% $404
Rent	-10% $355	-5% $409	+0% $463	+5% $518	+10% $572
Rate	-1.0pp $516	-0.5pp $490	base $463	+0.5pp $436	+1.0pp $409

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-07
   listed $105,000 Active 1165-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1165 chars)

   This new Beacon Prestige 3-bedroom, 2 bath home features gorgeous finishes with an open concept kitchen and living area. The kitchen features whirlpool appliances (dishwasher included!), soft close kitchen drawers, and high-quality dovetail constructed cabinetry. The home includes perimeter heat, allowing a variety of furniture placement without blocking vents! Washer and dryer hook-ups are included in the laundry room/pantry off the kitchen. This new home comes with a one-year limited factory warranty from date of purchase, with additional warranties on appliances and other items. Built entirely in a factory before being delivered and set within the community, manufactured homes are built in compliance with strict federal building codes to ensure superior construction, energy efficiency, and quality. The controlled construction environment and assembly line techniques remove problems encountered during traditional on-site home construction. Much like other assembly line operations, manufactured homes benefit from the economies of scale resulting from purchasing large quantities of materials, and these savings are passed directly to the homebuyer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $303 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,039 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: +$736/yr (+$61/mo · 243.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,451
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$303
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,316
• − Management: −$1,316
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $4,055
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$973
• After-tax cash flow: $4,588/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Red Creek Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624210
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $48,249
• Composite: 41.35/100
• National rank: #3495
• State rank: #415 of 590 in NY

Livability — Red Creek

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #751
• US rank: #14338

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,405

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,662 people
• By 2030: 81,945 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 73,735 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 65,029 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 47,451 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 31,574 · -63.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 4% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.5% · R 61.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.40%
• Current HPI: 256.6896
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $105,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

-5.1%/yr

Latest (2023): $303 · -56.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.